Can North Korea Attack the US?
In early 2017, tensions between the US and North Korea began to swell as the rogue nation ramped up its nuclear missile tests. Experts around the world began to speculate that the isolated nation may be gearing up to launch a strike against the United States or its allies in the region. We take a look at whether North Korea is actually capable of attacking the US.
The most obvious answer to this question is no. North Korea is a relatively impoverished country, with a GDP almost 1400 times lower than that of the US. The lack of resources available to North Korea means it is highly unlikely that they possess the capability of launching a successful attack on the US.
One may argue that North Korea could attempt to launch a nuclear weapons strike on the US. However, experts in the field are skeptical that the North possesses such weaponry. Furthermore, even if they do have the capacity to launch such a weapon, the US has effective defense systems in place which would be able to detect and prevent any incoming missile.
Other experts suggest that North Korea could attempt to launch a cyber-attack on the US. It is true that North Korea has demonstrated a capacity to launch sophisticated cyber-attacks in the past, such as the WannaCry ransomware attacks, as well as the high-profile attack on Sony Pictures in 2014. Nevertheless, it is very unlikely that North Korea would be able to penetrate the secure systems that protect US government and military networks.
For North Korea to attack the US, they would need to employ a range of conventional and unconventional weapons, but it is unlikely that they would be able to use them to sufficient effect. North Korea has a severe technical disadvantage when compared to the US military, as well as a manpower disadvantage, due to the US having a much larger population. This would make any attack by North Korea highly ineffective.
It is also important to consider the risk of retaliation posed to North Korea if they were to launch an attack on the US. America is one of the most powerful nations in the world, and it is likely that the US will respond with significantly greater force. This risk of overwhelming retaliation would likely be too great for North Korea to take.
North Korea’s Nuclear Program
It is well known that North Korea has been actively attempting to expand its nuclear program in recent years. This has resulted in increased tensions between the US and North Korea, as the US regards such actions to be a threat to their security. This has unquestionably caused further paranoia in the US, leading to the belief that the North may be attempting to amass a nuclear arsenal capable of attacking the US.
Despite these claims, the North Korean government has consistently stated that their nuclear program is purely for defensive purposes and that they have no intent to launch a nuclear attack against the US or any other nation. Furthermore, even if North Korea were to possess the capability of mounting a nuclear attack, the US still possesses effective deterrent measures, such as strategic missile defense systems.
Overall, most experts agree that North Korea is extremely unlikely to be able to launch a successful attack on the US. The nation is heavily constrained by its lack of resources, and any attempt to launch a nuclear attack would only result in severe retaliation from the US. North Korea’s nuclear program appears to primarily be a defensive measure, and is unlikely to be used offensively against the US.
A North Korean Infantry Invasion
Despite the fact that North Korea is unlikely to launch a successful attack on the US, some experts still believe that a North Korean infantry invasion of the US is theoretically possible. As previously mentioned, North Korea does possess a large army, with some estimates placing the number of active personnel at as much as 700,000. Furthermore, North Korea’s army is well-trained and extensively equipped.
In theory, North Korea could deploy its forces to attack US soil by land, sea, or air. However, such an invasion attempt would be highly unlikely for a multitude of reasons. Firstly, the distance between the US and North Korea prohibits an invasion which uses the latter’s conventional army force. Furthermore, the US possesses a highly advanced military that would be fully capable of fending off such an attack.
The US military also possesses a number of advanced weapon capabilities which would be more than enough to neutralise any attempted invasion. This includes advanced aerial, naval and land-based weaponry which would make any attempted invasion by North Korea extremely difficult, if not near impossible.
The Consequences of an Attack
If North Korea were to attempt an attack on the US, they would undoubtedly face severe consequences. Aside from the retaliatory attack the US would undoubtedly launch in response, North Korea would also likely face economic and diplomatic repercussions. Most likely, the US and its allies would impose significant economic sanctions, which could cripple the North Korean economy and destabilise the country.
Furthermore, such an action would likely result in the US and its allies cutting off diplomatic ties with North Korea, as well as expelling the nation from the United Nations. This could exacerbate the already fragile situation, particularly for the people of North Korea, who would be under even more pressure from the international community.
Risk of Miscalculation
It is important to consider that while North Korea are highly unlikely to attack the US, there is still a chance of a misjudgement or miscalculation that could potentially lead to a military conflict between the two nations. This could potentially occur through a series of escalations, where each nation responds to provocations, believing that each of their respective actions is in their own best interests.
This is particularly concerning as both nations possess a large stockpile of nuclear weapons, which only increases the risk of a military confrontation erupting between them. This highlights the importance of diplomatic communication, as well as the necessity for both sides to take precautionary measures in order to prevent misjudgements that could potentially lead to a disastrous altercation.
The US Policy Towards North Korea
For the US, it is essential that they adopt a policy of containment towards North Korea, rather than attempting to provoke them with sanctions and other punitive measures. A containment policy would involve the US attempting to constrict North Korea’s behavior without offering them incentives. This would allow the US to exert control over North Korea without giving them any reason to antagonize the US.
Furthermore, such a policy would necessitate the US to engage in direct communications with North Korea in order to encourage a peaceful solution to the current tensions between them. This would involve the two nations engaging in productive diplomatic dialogue in order to reach an agreement on issues such as North Korea’s nuclear program.
It is clear that both the US and North Korea have a vested interest in avoiding a conflict. For North Korea, it would almost certainly result in total destruction and a prolonged period of suffering for its people. Conversely, for the US, it would undoubtedly be a costly war, both in terms of human life as well as economic resources.
Conclusion
To conclude, it is highly unlikely that North Korea could successfully attack the US. The rogue nation is severely constrained by its lack of resources and would be unable to launch an effective attack without facing severe consequences. North Korea’s nuclear program appears to primarily be a defensive measure, and is unlikely to be used offensively against the US.
It is therefore essential that the US adopts a policy of containment towards North Korea and engages them in diplomatic dialogue. The two nations must work together to find a peaceful solution to their differences, and the US must remain mindful of the risks of miscalculation that could potentially lead to an armed conflict between them.
