Background Information
North Korea, officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, is a country in East Asia, located in the northern half of the Korean Peninsula. It is bordered by China to the northwest and Russia to the northeast, while the South Korea lies to the south. North Korea remains one of the world’s most isolated and secretive countries. Its leaders have long stoked fears by launching nuclear and ballistic missile tests.
This has raised the natural question of whether North Korea is capable of launching a missile that could hit the United States and its biggest city, New York City, in particular. Fortunately, there is no evidence that North Korea has such capability yet, though the situation could change. In 2017, the US and South Korean governments both estimated that North Korea may soon be able to achieve this, and so efforts have been made to find ways to deter Pyongyang from further missile launches.
Missile Range
The answer to our question lies in the range of North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The furthest a North Korean missile has been fired is around 6,500 miles, according to US defense analysts. That is enough to reach Alaska but not enough to reach the US East Coast, much less New York City.
However, experts agree that North Korea could potentially extend the range of its missiles over time with technological advances. North Korea has been developing its long-range missile program steadily since the 1990s and has conducted numerous series of long-range missile tests. In fact, in 2017 and 2019 North Korea tested intercontinental ballistic missiles which could carry light payloads as far as 8,100 miles, which is within reach of major cities like New York.
Ground Launching vs. Submarine Launching
Another factor to consider is the method of launching. North Korea is thought to only have two types of missiles with the capability to reach the US: a ground-launched ballistic missile and a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
Ground-launched missiles, which are easier to build, are the more likely to be used. However, the range limitations, as well as the risk of the missile being intercepted, mean that a submarine-launched missile is likely the most effective way for North Korea to reach the US. In fact, a US military report from 2019 suggests that North Korea may already have the ability to launch a submarine-launched missile from its coast that could potentially reach the US East Coast.
Missile Types and Capacity
Another factor to consider is the type of missile and its capacity. North Korea has developed different kinds of missiles, including the Hwasong-15 and the Hwasong-14. These missiles have different ranges, payloads and speeds.
The Hwasong-15 is North Korea’s most advanced ICBM. It is believed to be capable of reaching most of the continental United States and has a maximum range of 8,100 miles. The missile can carry a large payload and has a top speed of 15,000 miles per hour.
The Hwasong-14 is an intermediate range ballistic missile with a range of 4,200 miles. It is believed to be capable of reaching Alaska, Hawaii and parts of the US West Coast. This missile can also carry a large payload and has a top speed of around 10,500 miles per hour.
Level of Readiness
Finally, it is important to consider the level of readiness that North Korea could achieve with its missiles. There is no evidence to suggest that North Korea is anywhere close to being able to launch a missile at New York, let alone at the continental United States.
Although North Korea has tested missiles of various types, it is not clear if it has the required level of technological expertise to launch a missile at the United States. To do so, North Korea would need to have a reliable design and a working control system. Additionally, it would need to develop a reliable guidance system so the missile can reach its target.
Reliability of Missile Guidance System
The reliability of the missile guidance system is essential for North Korea to be able to effectively target New York City. North Korea has been able to execute successful missile tests in the past, but it is still unknown if Pyongyang is capable of successfully targeting distant locations like the continental United States.
As noted earlier, North Korea has tested missiles with a range of 8,100 miles. This suggests that North Korea has the capability to target parts of the United States. However, it is not known whether North Korea has the technology to ensure that the missile will reach its precise target or not.
North Korean Military Capacity
Another factor that should be taken into consideration is the North Korean military capacity. While North Korea has the capability to launch a missile at the United States, it is not likely that Pyongyang has the capacity to effectively target a city such as New York City due to the US’s advanced missile defense system.
The US has a robust missile defense system in place, which is designed to detect and intercept any incoming ballistic missile threats. Furthermore, the US military is able to respond quickly and decisively to any incoming missile threat. As a result, it is very unlikely that North Korea would be able to successfully launch a missile at the US, and even less likely that it would be able to hit New York City.
Nuclear Deterrence
Finally, it is important to consider the potential use of nuclear weapons by North Korea. North Korea has made clear its willingness to use nuclear weapons if threatened. This has led to an increased focus on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and its ability to launch missiles at the United States, in particular.
Fortunately, North Korea is not believed to currently have the capacity to miniaturize its nuclear weapons, which would be necessary to launch a nuclear-tipped ICBM at the United States. Moreover, North Korea is still far from having the capability to launch an effective missile at the US. In addition, the US military is well-prepared and has a robust missile defense system in place, which would likely be able to intercept any incoming missiles.
Evaluation and Assessment
In short, it is highly unlikely that North Korea is currently able to hit New York City with its missiles. However, the situation could change in the future as North Korea continues to develop its missile program.
Experts agree that North Korea has been steadily increasing its missile capabilities and that it could continue to extend the range of its missiles over time with technological advances. This could potentially put New York City in the North Korean missile’s reach. Additionally, North Korea currently has the capability to launch a submarine-launched missile from its coast that could potentially reach the US East Coast. Furthermore, North Korea could potentially launch nuclear-tipped ICBMs at the United States if it can miniaturize its nuclear weapons.
It is clear that North Korea remains a major threat to the United States and its vital allies. It is therefore essential that the US and its allies take the necessary steps to ensure that North Korea cannot acquire the capacity to hit New York City with its missiles.
International Cooperation
International cooperation is essential for the US and its allies to effectively prevent North Korea from acquiring the capacity to hit New York City with its missiles. The US and its allies must work together to bring diplomatic and economic pressure on North Korea to stop its nuclear weapons program.
The US has taken steps to limit North Korea’s access to resources, including strict economic sanctions and unilateral export bans. However, it is unclear how effective these measures are in curbing North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
It is also essential for countries to work together to increase the capability of their missile defense systems. The US is the leader in missile defense, and the US and its allies must ensure that they can effectively detect and intercept any incoming ballistic missiles. The US and its allies should also share intelligence, technology and resources to ensure that they have the capability to respond quickly and decisively to any incoming missile threat.
Capability of North Korea to Conduct Cyber Attacks
North Korea’s cyber capability is also a major threat. North Korea has been actively involved in cyber warfare in recent years, and its cyber operations are capable of disrupting the infrastructure of the US and other countries. The US and its allies must remain vigilant against any cyber attacks from North Korea.
The US and its allies should work together to improve their cyber security capabilities and to increase their awareness of North Korea’s cyber operations. It is essential for the US and its allies to be able to detect and respond quickly and effectively to any potential cyber threat from North Korea.
Implications of Diplomatic Measures and Sanctions
Finally, it is important to consider the implications of diplomatic measures and sanctions on North Korea. Sanctions have been effective in curbing North Korea’s nuclear weapons program in the past, and it is essential that the US and its allies continue to work together to implement effective sanctions against North Korea.
The US and its allies should also consider the implications of any diplomatic measures. In particular, it is essential for the US and its allies to consider the impact of any diplomatic measures on North Korea’s human rights situation. It is essential that any diplomatic measures do not worsen the human rights situation in North Korea.
In conclusion, it is clear that North Korea currently does not have the capacity to hit New York City with its missiles. However, North Korea’s missile capabilities could potentially increase in the future, and it is essential that the US and its allies remain vigilant and take the necessary steps to prevent North Korea from acquiring the capacity to hit New York City with its missiles.
