Recently, news headlines have been preoccupied with North Korea and the alleged threats it made against China. There have been conflicting reports about the nature of these threats and even the origin. Starting from some of the most recent developments, we will attempt to examine this issue and shed some light on North Korea’s relations with China.
North Korea and China have had diplomatic relations since 1949. North Korea keeps China’s policy of self-defense in mind and for the most part, have been a loyal ally to the Chinese. That said, their relationship has been tested recently over the issue of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. China has made it clear that they would oppose any military action involving North Korean weapons.
In April 2020, a Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) press conference reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was “completing preparations for military strike drills against China”. This particular report set off international consternation as the Chinese Foreign Ministry immediately rejected this. Later developments only added to the confusion.
For example, in July 2020, reports were made claiming that North Korea had succeeded in launching a nuclear-capable missile. Despite China calling for an end to future nuclear tests, North Korea once again demonstrated its commitment to developing such capabilities. China expressed grave concern but also noted that it was now more necessary than ever to focus on maintaining peace and requesting a resolution through dialogue.
Experts have suggested a number of possible explanations for why North Korea is purportedly “threatening” its closest ally. For one, North Korea may feel that the pressure from the international community to give up its nuclear weapons program is increasing, and thus it is searching for ways to preserve its bargaining power. Additionally, North Korea’s increasingly precarious financial situation could potentially be driving the need to signal its strength. By actively demonstrating its military capabilities, North Korea is asserting itself as a leading power in the region. Finally, North Korea may be attempting to use the threat of armed conflict to gain additional economic aid from its ally.
Although tensions between North Korea and China have been rising in recent years due to the nuclear issue, it is unlikely that North Korea will actually take military action against China. The Chinese government’s warnings against North Korea’s weapon tests and military drills indicate that it doesn’t want to pursue this path, while North Korean leaders themselves have expressed their commitment to protecting China from outside forces. Therefore, it appears that North Korea’s threats are primarily being used as a form of diplomatic negotiation, rather than a realistic possibility of war.
North Korea-China Relations after the Missile Launch
The July 2020 missile launch was one of the most recent developments in the US-North Korea conflict after the deadlock of the 2017-2018 era. As in the past eight years, China called for a peaceful resolution to the issues surrounding North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Experts suggest the China’s strategy is to continue filling the economic vacuum left by the sanctions imposed on North Korea by the international community while leveraging its influence to urge Pyongyang to suspend its nuclear program.
China’s interest in regional and international stability also drives its diplomatic strategies—although Beijing has prioritized economic and strategic gains in the region, it has also tried to minimize potential risks due to the US-North Korea tensions and the potential for armed conflict in the region.
At present, North Korea and China have maintained a close but wary relationship. North Korea has tended to further isolate itself from the international community, while China has had to walk a tight rope and balance its economic and strategic interests with its commitment to regional peace and stability. As the US-North Korea conflict continues to evolve, China may be able to use its influence to bring both sides to the negotiation table and create pathways for an eventual resolution.
The United States’ Response
The current US-North Korea relationship is characterized by a lack of trust and rising tensions due, in part, to the April 2020 alleged threat by North Korea to launch military strikes against China. This particular incident has further complicated the situation, as the US is not party to the China-North Korea relationship. As a result, Washington has had a limited role in ongoing negotiations to de-escalate the situation.
Nonetheless, the US government has maintained a strong stance against North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and has called for a peaceful solution to the situation. US President Biden responded to the North Korea missile launch with a statement emphasizing the need for international cooperation, dialogue and pressure to make progress towards a more secure, prosperous and denuclearized Korean Peninsula. He further emphasized that the US “remains applies relentless diplomatic and economic pressure to bring Kim Jong Un’s pursuit of nuclear weapons to an end been”.
The US government has traditionally maintained a policy of strategic patience and economic pressure in regards to North Korea. However, with this particular incident, the Biden administration’s strategy may be shifting towards attempting to engage with Pyongyang and de-escalate the situation. Such a shift—if it comes to fruition—would be welcomed by China and the international community.
The United Nation’s Efforts
The United Nations has been making headway in its efforts to reach a peaceful resolution for the tensions between North Korea and the rest of the international community. In the wake of the latest missile launch, the UN Security Council strongly condemned North Korea’s actions and called for a de-escalation of tensions in the region. As of yet, North Korea is yet to react to the resolution and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has urged all relevant parties to exercise restraint and caution.
Since 2019, the UN has also been making a concerted effort to mediate the US-North Korea conflict. Such efforts have included proposing a four-party talks which involve the US, North Korea, China and Russia. However, at present there has been no indication that these talks are likely to take place anytime soon and it remains to be seen how successful the UN will be in achieving its goals.
In the meantime, the UN has continued forward with its diplomatic efforts, such as forging closer ties with North Korea and engaging in dialogue with the country’s foreign minister, Ri Yong Ho. Such steps may prove to be crucial in reaching a resolution to the present situation.
Regional Concerns and Implications
The current North Korean-Chinese relationship is of particular concern to countries in the region due to the potential implications for their security. South Korea, for example, has long been concerned about North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and, recently, the US’ potential shifting stance towards Pyongyang. In addition, Japan is keenly watching the situation and is likely to respond to any further developments in the future.
The US-North Korea conflict has also raised questions about the efficacy of the US-China-Japan security alliance in the region, with some suggesting that it could be weakened by the tension. Additionally, some experts have commented that should tensions persist, it could lead to the formation of new alliances and increased militarization in the region—which could further jeopardize peace and stability.
The international community is hoping that North Korea and China can come to a resolution outside of military means. Whether or not this can be achieved depends largely on the UN’s ability to bring the two sides to the negotiation table and the regional countries’ ability to maintain regional stability in the meantime.
