Background Information
Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea since 2011, has been the subject of much speculation since April 2021 when reports began to surface that he was in grave health after undergoing a cardiovascular procedure. Rumors circulated that Kim had passed away. This quickly led to speculation over what could follow. What would make these reports credible? Who could replace him? How would the changes affect international relations?
Relevant Data
The People’s Republic of China, a longtime ally and neighbor of North Korea, was quick to respond. They released a statement saying that Kim Jong-un was alive and well and attending meetings of the ruling Worker’s Party of Korea. This was backed up by South Korea officials, who stated Kim was still firmly at the helm of the heavily sanctioned, internationally isolated nation.
Perspectives from Experts
Experts are predicting that if Kim did pass away, it is unlikely to cause a major shift in policy. Experts point to the political structure of North Korea, which is based on dynastic succession. Experts suggest that due to the complexities of the nation’s government, it is unlikely that Kim’s passing would lead to large-scale changes. According to Suzanne DiMaggio, a senior fellow at New America, “The Kims are the glue that holds North Korea together. The ideology of the regime is that the Kim dynasty protects the nation and that only someone from this lineage is qualified to lead it.”
Analysis
It is uncertain how the passing of Kim Jong-un would ultimately affect international relations, as it is still uncertain if he has passed away. If he does pass away, it could lead to a period of uncertainty and potentially volatility as the North Korean government works to find a replacement. It is almost certain that if Kim does pass away, his successor will come from within his family.
From a North Korean perspective, the passing of Kim could mean political stability. As long as the chosen leader is from the Kim family, the North Korean population is likely to accept the leadership without major upheaval. The passing of Kim could also lead to potential changes in North Korea’s relations with its neighbor states, particularly South Korea and China.
International Sanctions
It is possible that if Kim Jong-un passes away, there could be changes to North Korea’s international standing. It is uncertain how the international community would respond to these changes, but one possibility is that it could lead to the lifting of international sanctions. Reports are suggesting that the U.S. is considering lifting the sanctions it imposed on North Korea in the wake of its nuclear weapons testing. If these sanctions were lifted, it could bring much needed relief to the struggling economy of North Korea.
Implications for North and South Korea
The passing of Kim Jong-un could lead to improved relations between North and South Korea, as the grief and uncertainty of the event could lead to a desire for stability and peace on both sides of the border. It is possible we could see renewed diplomatic ties between the nations and possibly a move towards closer economic ties, leading to greater prosperity for both countries.
Humanitarian Aid
If Kim Jong-un passes away, it is possible that North Korea will be more open to receiving international humanitarian aid. Reports have shown that the majority of North Koreans are struggling with poverty, malnutrition and lack of access to proper medical care. Improved economic ties between North and South Korea, as well as more open access to humanitarian aid, could greatly reduce these issues.
End of Isolationism
The passing of Kim Jong-un could provide an opportunity for North Korea to move away from its policies of isolationism and begin to slowly open up to the global economy. This could be beneficial for the North Korean people, as it would lead to increased job opportunities and higher standards of living. It would also strengthen relationships with friendly nations, who could help to provide the resources necessary for the economic growth of North Korea.
