The world has been abuzz with talk of the recent developments in North Korea. Rumors have been swirling around the Central Asian nation in recent weeks, and they have only been intensified by the fact that no official statements have yet been issued from the nation’s government. Reports from South Korea’s intelligence agency, as well as various sources from the region, suggest that the current President of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, may have passed away.
Kim Jong Un’s absence from the numerous significant events of the past several months, including the highly-publicized 20th Anniversary Commemoration of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, has been only fuel to the fire of these rumors. Refusal of the North Korean government to confirm or deny these rumors further shows the tight veil of secrecy that enshrouds the nation and its government.
Foreign policy analysts have attempted to predict the future of North Korea should the reports be true, with most coming to the conclusion that U.S.-North Korean relations—already tenuous—will grow even more uneasy. Relations between the nations have been increasingly poor in recent months, largely due to the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and disagreements over North Korea’s nuclear programs.
International relations experts have commented that, if true, this might spell more uncertainty for the already tumultuous Korean peninsula, as Kim Jong Un’s death could mean that no single leader is able to effectively rule the nation with the same, iron-clad grip that the leader has in the past few years. This could mean that, with a new era of leadership in the nation, there is the prospect of further inertia and stagnation in the implementation of international policies, agreements and treaties due to a struggle to establish clear lines of authority within the nation’s government.
Although conclusive evidence confirming whether or not Kim Jong Un has passed away is yet to come, North Korea’s foreign policies have been steadily shifting throughout the past five years of his official reign. His initially hostile attitude towards the U.S. softened a little once peace talks began, though these quickly died out. However, potential reshuffles in the nation’s government could mean a revival of negotiations, with the external stakeholders, including China, and South Korea having much to gain from a smoothly-running implementation of international policies.
With it being nearly three months since Kim Jong Un was sighted in public, the probability that he may have passed away is highly likely. Though his death has yet to be confirmed, an unlikely, yet possible, succession of the nation’s presidency could bring forth a new era of North Korea. What this new era might look like remains to be seen, prompting many experts to speculate on the future of the nation, especially in regards to its foreign policies towards the U.S. and other nations in the region.
Profiling of North Korean Leadership
When Kim Jong Un assumed office at the helm of North Korean leadership in 2011, questions have been raised by many as to his legitimacy and capability to lead the isolated nation in a unique, effective manner. This was further compounded by the shroud of secrecy the regime has always been shrouded in, with many foreign policy experts claiming that the loner state might rely on outdated policies and strategies.
However, Kim quickly consolidated his position within the government and firmly established himself at the very top echelon of the nation. His international leadership has been largely credited for the much improved relations with countries such as South Korea and has been working closely with leaders from the U.S. and other countries in the region. His nationwide campaigns to promote the nation’s culture, health and education have also been received positively by a large portion of the population. It is due to these actions and efforts that many pundits often sing praises of the leader and his capabilities to rule the nation in an effective and real time manner.
However, the distinction between Kim Jong Un’s effective leadership style and the leadership of his father and grandfather needs to be highlighted here. Whilst his predecessors have been known to have implemented draconian-like policies and hardline attitude in their dealings, Kim Jong Un is often seen as having a much more action-oriented and kinder approach to tackling the nation’s internal problems. This possible benefit can be seen in the improving relationships between North and South Korea and the relationship between North Korea and the U.S.
However, the recent reports of Kim Jong Un’s death might bring forth yet another restructuring among the nation’s leadership and administration. Should this take place, a new leader may take the reins and assume responsibility of the nation’s affairs. This could mean upheaval in the near and immediate future, with new policies and strategies coming forth.
U.S. Reactions and Perspectives
The U.S. is a major stakeholder when it comes to the North and South Korean affairs, and would be greatly affected should a new leader take office in North Korea. The U.S.’s current president, Donald Trump, and Kim Jong Un had a tumultuous relationship since the former took office in 2016, as they often clashed over the nation’s involvement in nuclear power and military influence in the region.
However, despite their differences, Trump has been highly complimentary of Kim Jong Un, calling him a “very smart guy” during one press conference. Despite his wide-reaching interpretations of the North Korean leader and his regime, Trump might not be too pleased about the prospect of the United States’ most extreme adversary taking office in the region. As such, many pundits expect his attitudes to change drastically should this situation arise, as he might not be able to hold onto his current rhetoric of friendly-ish talks between the two nations for much longer.
On the other hand, the ongoing peace talks between North and South Korea are seen by many to be a major positive in the handling of the relationship between the two nations. The earliest signs that there could be potential influential elements to Kim Jong Un’s rule had been visible in this sense, as the nation quickly went from a hostile-posturing country to one that was willing to engage in healthy negotiations with the other. This further shows the potential of the North Korean leader, and should Kim Jong Un pass away, South Korea might mourn the loss of the potentially great leader.
North Korea’s Technology and Economic Developments
Throughout the ever-changing relationship between North and South Korea, one aspect that remained unchanged is that of economic development. Since taking office, Kim Jong Un worked to bring forth reform in the nation’s technology and industry, even with its loner status.
Advances in the nation’s economic prowess can be seen in the form of overhauling the energy supply networks in the nation—a long-term goal on the leader’s list since coming to power. Furthermore, his massive developments in the nation’s transportation networks can also be highlighted, with some analysts claiming that the nation’s busy highway systems rival even those found in China.
The industry and technology boom experienced by North Korea has also been credited largely with China’s support of the nation and its leader—China being an aperture of money, materials and technology into the nation. Despite its diplomatic differences with the U.S., it can be said that Kim Jong Un has been largely successful in bringing money and resources into the nation during his reign.
Nevertheless, the passing away of Kim Jong Un could mean a stagnation in some of the projects and plans he has imprinted on the nation, with it being harder for younger, inexperienced leaders to properly fill his shoes. Further advancements in the nation’s infrastructure and transportation might be halted, while a potential downfall in terms of its Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is also unfortunately likely.
Assessment: North Korea in the Future
Should Kim Jong Un pass away, it is likely that the next few years will be a period of turbulence in the Korean peninsula. With a new leader yet to be appointed, centrifugal forces are likely to be felt in the nation, with new and existing policies being tested and put into question, respectively. In addition, the nation might also be met with economic downturn as investment from external stakeholders decreases due to the lack of assurance that the stability and progress Kim Jong Un had achieved will continue in the future. Foundational activities in terms of economic development and infrastructure might also be stalled, as the new leader would need time to adjust and solidify his position as the nation’s ruler.
Nevertheless, whilst the news of possible death of Kim Jong Un is saddening and anxiety-inducing, it does bring forth a glimmer of hope for the nation, as a new leader—assuming that none has already been chosen—might mean a new flow of fresh ideas and perspectives into North Korea. As previously mentioned, if the right candidate takes office, we might also see a revival and/or cooperation between North and South Korea, as well as with the U.S.—something to look forward to as the nation goes through these uncertain times.
