Russia’s Economic Links to North Korea
Russia has historically maintained strong economic ties with North Korea, primarily through exports of energy, timber and aluminium from Russia, and coal shipments from North Korea.Russia has also provided insurance on shipments of fuel to North Korea, which has enabled Pyongyang to access international markets for its exports.Russian companies have also been involved in construction projects in North Korea and telecom services, sparking speculation of secret military collaboration between the two countries.
Russia and North Korea have recently strengthened their diplomatic ties, engaging in high-level political visits and formal declarations of friendship.Russia considers North Korea a buffer against the United States and Japan, whom they both mistrust, and North Korea values Russia’s support in the United Nations Security Council, especially on matters related to sanctions against North Korea.This close relationship has raised concerns among US officials, who have accused Moscow of aiding North Korea in its nuclear weapons program.
Though there is no direct evidence that Russia has directly supplied North Korea with nuclear material or missile parts, some analysts believe that Russia has supplied dual-use technologies, including components for long-range ballistic missiles, to the regime in Pyongyang. These components could be used by North Korea to strengthen the range and accuracy of its missile program.
Furthermore, Russia has opposed some of the most severe trade restrictions imposed by the US on North Korea, advocating instead for a flexible, calibrated approach.Moscow has argued that more stringent restrictions would only worsen North Korea’s economic hardship and could destabilize the region. This stance has caused tension between Russia and the US, with some American officials accusing Russia of protecting North Korea from international sanctions.
Political Considerations
Russia has sought to protect its strategic interests in Northeast Asia by establishing ties with both North Korea and its regional neighbours.This policy of ‘buffer diplomacy’ seeks to create a balance of power in the region and limit the influence of one country, such as the United States, over the region.
Russia has developed a strategic partnership with South Korea, but has also sought to protect its relationship with North Korea.Moscow has consistently spoken out against punitive measures imposed on North Korea by the United States, arguing that Pyongyang should be allowed to resolve its problems through dialogue.
Russia has also sought to ensure a stable neighbour on its eastern flank, as it uses North Korea as one of its primary sources of imports and exports.Russia has protested US military exercises in the region, which have resulted in strain with Washington.Nevertheless, it views North Korea as a reliable customer and a platform for increasing its own geopolitical influence.
Military Ties Between Russia and North Korea
There are growing suspicions that Russia is deepening its military ties with North Korea.This could include supplying North Korea with advanced missile technology and providing access to Russian military personnel for training and support.
In 2017, it was reported that two high-ranking Russian officials had visited North Korea and met secretly with top generals to discuss military and security issues. Officials from Russia’s Federal Security Service (the FSB) were also reported to have visited the country multiple times throughout 2017 and 2018. News reports of increased military cooperation between Russia and North Korea have added to speculation of a secret military relationship between the two countries.
Whilst Russia denies any illegal activities in support of North Korea’s internal affairs or military programs, it is believed that Russia does provide military advice and support, as well as technology and equipment to North Korea.
Russia’s Motives and Intentions
Russia seeks to maintain and develop its influence in the region in order to protect its strategic and economic interests.It views North Korea as an important buffer against US influence, and as a stable and reliable customer and partner.
Moscow is also keen to maintain good ties with North Korea in order to promote regional stability, limit the influence of other regional powers, and prevent further US-led sanctions and military exercises in the region.
Russia may also be motivated by a desire to gain access to the lucrative markets of China, South Korea and Japan.Developing close ties with North Korea could provide Russia with valuable access to these markets and the potential to benefit economically.
Miscellaneous Benefits From Russian-North Korean Relations
Russia’s ties with North Korea have yielded significant dividends that are not limited to military and economic concerns. Moscow also stands to benefit from cross-cultural ties between the two countries, as Russian students and teachers are increasingly travelling to North Korea to teach and learn the Russian language.
Cultural exchanges have also allowed Russian tourists, traders and diplomats to gain access to North Korea, where they can observe the culture at first hand and gain a unique insight into the country.This can be valuable for Russia, allowing it to gain access to information and resources which may not be otherwise accessible.
Russia has also provided medical, economic and other humanitarian aid to North Korea, indicating a commitment to maintain their strong ties.
Positive Impact From Russian-North Korean Relations
The strengthening of ties between Russia and North Korea has resulted in increased economic and political cooperation, as well as better international relationsbetween the two countries. Russia can also boast of advancing its strategic interests in the region by fostering strong ties with North Korea, which could potentially result in more stable relations in the region.
Cross-cultural dialogue between North Korea and Russia has also increased, with more exchanges between students and professionals taking place. This has brought the two countries closer together and has the potential to open up new avenues for cooperation.
Finally, Russian aid to North Korea has played an important role in helping the regime alleviate its rampant poverty and poor living conditions. Though it is difficult to gauge the effect of Russian aid as North Korea’s government is secretive, it is likely that the assistance has been instrumental in providing North Koreans with much-needed basic services, such as health care and education.
Negative Impact From Russian-North Korean Relations
Though there are potentially positive outcomes from the increasing ties between Russia and North Korea, the relationship has also been controversial.Critics fear that Russian assistance has been used to shore up the regime in Pyongyang and alleviate some of the pain caused by US sanctions.They warn that Moscow is propping up a regime that is brutal, oppressive and has little regard for human rights.
Furthermore, there are fears that Moscow has been instrumental in providing North Korea with components for its long-range missile program.This has added to concerns that North Korea could use its missile capabilities to threaten its neighbours, or even the United States.
Finally, some worry that increased military ties between Russia and North Korea could lead to further military aggression in the region, which could destabilize the region.
Russian Public Opinion On North Korea
Despite the potential risks posed by further military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, public opinion in Russia remains largely favourable towards North Korea.Recent surveys suggest that a majority of Russians view North Korea positively, with only 9% viewing the North Korean government unfavourably.
This favourable sentiment is mostly attributable to the high levels of media coverage devoted to North Korean President Kim Jong Un, who is portrayed in a mostly positive light in the Russian press. President Putin is also perceived positively in North Korea, and he has been the first foreign leader to be greeted by Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, another indicator of the close ties between the two countries.
This close relationship between Russia and North Korea is likely to continue, with both sides viewing it in their own interest to maintain a close strategic partnership.
Potential Outcomes Of Russian-North Korean Relations
Under current circumstances, it is difficult to predict the future trajectory of Russian-North Korean relations.The US has consistently sought to isolate North Korea, so it is likely that the close relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang will continue to attract criticism and scrutiny from Washington.
Nevertheless, the significant economic and geopolitical benefits offered by increased trade and cooperation between Russia and North Korea could outweigh the potential risks posed by military ties, resulting in an even closer relationship between the two countries.
Another potential outcome is that Moscow and Pyongyang could use their improved relations to find a political solution to the North Korean crisis, with Moscow acting as a mediator between North Korea and the international community.
Alternatively, if the disadvantages of closer ties between Russia and North Korea outweigh the benefits, tensions could arise between the two countries, leading to a disruption of the current arrangement and a return to previous animosity between Moscow and Pyongyang.
