Historical Perspective
North Korea has been testing missiles for decades, although there has been some reduction in their tests in recent years. North Korea first began testing missiles in the early 1980s with their Musudan Intermediate-range ballistic missile test in 1983. Since then they have continued to develop and test their missiles, along with other forms of weaponry. This aggressive maneuvering has led to increased tensions both within the Korean peninsula and in the international community.
In 2006 North Korea had their first successful nuclear test and this was followed by a number of International sanctions as well as several North Korean missile tests. In 2016, North Korea began testing more powerful missiles, launching over 20 ballistic weapons that year alone. This led to further international condemnation, particularly by their neighbors South Korea, Japan and the United States. It was during this period that the United Nations (UN) imposed the most stringent sanctions yet in a bid to curb the development and testing of missiles.
Recent Developments
In late 2017, North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un announced that the country would cease all nuclear and missile tests in order to improve economic conditions and relations with foreign countries. This announcement came as a welcomed surprise to the international community, as it was thought that North Korea would never give up its missile testing program.
Since Kim Jong Un’s announcement, North Korea has in fact stopped testing missiles. This can be seen in their lack of major tests since 2017, their absence from international missile tests, and their diplomatic efforts in memory dialogues, especially with South Korea and the United States.
It is unclear if North Korea is completely done testing missiles permanently or just temporarily, but many experts believe that the chances of North Korea abandoning missile testing indefinitely are pretty slim. Kim Jong Un’s declaration may be nothing more than a tactical move to improve relations in the short term and gain concessions from foreign countries.
International Significance
The continued cessation of missile tests from North Korea is of great importance to the international community. If North Korea does indeed stop testing then it could signal a shift towards a more peaceful and cooperative relationship with foreign countries. This would be a positive development, not just within the Korean peninsula, but worldwide.
The impact of North Korea stopping missile tests would also be felt economically. If North Korea were no longer testing missiles, then businesses would be able to operate in certain areas of the Korean peninsula that are unsafe due to the presence of missiles. This could potentially create new economic opportunities for the region and even stimulate wider economic growth in East Asia.
Reasons Behind North Korea’s Decision
There are many theories about why North Korea has stopped testing missiles, some more likely than others. One commonly accepted explanation is that North Korea has realized that their aggressive stance on missile testing is a losing battle. With the international community coalescing and backing increasingly stringent sanctions against North Korea due to their actions, Kim Jong Un may have decided that it was time to take a more diplomatic approach. This would make sense as it could ease international pressure and improve North Korea’s economy and relations with other countries in the short term.
However, other observers have argued that North Korea may have stopped testing due to a lack of resources. It is possible that North Korea has simply run out of the resources needed to keep their missiles tests going and has now been forced to put them on temporary hold.
Implications of North Korea’s Actions
It is important to note that while North Korea has stopped testing missiles, they still possess a large arsenal of weapons and other military technology. This means that even if North Korea is no longer testing missiles, their military capability remains a threat to global security.
Therefore, it is essential that the international community does not become complacent and continues to monitor the situation closely. It is also important that the UN and other international organizations maintain the pressure on North Korea to ensure that their nuclear and missile testing programs do not start again.
Alternative Perspective
Although most experts agree that North Korea has in fact stopped testing missiles, there is a viewpoint that suggests things may not be as clear as they seem. Some observers point out that North Korea has continued to upgrade their ballistic missiles since 2017 and the country has been accused of providing assistance to other countries in their missile programs. This suggests that North Korea has not completely abandoned their missile testing program and is simply engaging in a more discreet form of testing and development.
Further evidence of this comes from satellite images that suggest North Korea is still involved in some form of missile development activity, although the level of activity is not known. This could suggest that North Korea has been engaging in some kind of low-level missile testing and development, which would be very difficult for the international community to discover and monitor.
International Response
Given the potential risks associated with North Korea testing missiles, the international community has been proactive in responding to the situation. In addition to the UN sanctions, there have been numerous diplomatic talks and meetings between North Korea, the US and South Korea in an attempt to dissuade Kim Jong Un from continuing to test missiles.
The US has also taken a hard stance against North Korea, recently deploying military assets to the region and engaging in joint exercises with South Korea in order to deter North Korea from further missile tests. The US has encouraged other countries to follow suit and has imposed unilateral sanctions on North Korea in a bid to reduce the country’s missile capabilities.
Political Impact of Missile Testing
The decision to stop missile tests has had a largely positive effect on politics within the Korean peninsula. South Korea, who had been one of the most vocal critics of North Korea’s aggressive tactics, now seems to believe that talks and diplomacy are a better way forward for both countries.
This has been reflected in the increasing number of diplomatic meetings and dialogues that have been held recently between the two Koreas. Recently Kim Jong Un met with South Korean president Moon Jae-in to discuss denuclearization and the potential for future cooperation, an event which marked the first inter-Korean talks in two years.
Military Repercussions
The cessation of missile tests has also had a noticeable impact on military movements in the region. North Korea has withdrawn its forces from the de-militarised zone (DMZ) that separates the two Koreas, and has indicated that it is open to further disarmament of its forces.
This has been welcomed by the international community, as the removal of troops could potentially reduce the level of tension between the two Koreas and decrease the chances of conflict. The US has also welcomed the situation as it reduces the amount of military assets that it has to deploy in order to deter North Korea from engaging in further missile tests.
Potential for Future Missile Testing
One must also consider the potential for North Korea to return to missile testing in the future. Although Kim Jong Un has indicated that North Korea will no longer test missiles, this could be subject to change depending on the course of the US-North Korea negotiations.
If the negotiations fail then there is a chance that the US will impose harsh sanctions on North Korea, prompting Kim Jong Un to return to missile testing in order to bolster his bargaining position. Further, if North Korea begins to feel that the US is not taking their demands seriously then they could restart testing as a way of sending a message. Therefore, North Korea’s intentions remain to be seen and the international community must remain vigilant.
