History of North Korea’s Nuclear Program
North Korea’s nuclear program has been around for more than a decade. Ever since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un came to power in 2011, the country has been actively pursuing nuclear weapons. North Korea had started working on a uranium enrichment facility in 2003, the same year it broke off talks with the United States on disarmament. In 2006, the country tested its first nuclear device, and in the years following, it has made advances in its nuclear arsenal, despite various international sanctions.
North Korea’s Known Nuclear Sites
The United States estimates that North Korea has several operational and undeclared nuclear sites across its country. The known sites include the nuclear weapons training facility of Ch’engp’o-ri, the Yongbyom a gas graphite reactor, and the Golan-2 welding and metalworking facility in Ch’o-ngjin. There is also a suspected plutonium production site at the Kumchaek complex, close to the Yongbyom reactor. In addition, two uranium enrichment complex have been identified, the original in Kumchang-ri and the new one in Pyongsan.
Current Nuclear Weapons and Materials
North Korea is estimated to have between 20-60 nuclear weapons and enough fissile material to build more than 50 by the end of 2020. The country has also produced Plutonium-239 and uranium-235 for its weapons program. Plutonium-239 is a highly-refined, weapons-grade nuclear material, and uranium-235 is another fissile material for nuclear weapons. In addition, North Korea is estimated to have a stockpile of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
What Would a Nuclear Strike Look Like?
A nuclear strike from North Korea would rely on an intercontinental ballistic missile armed with a nuclear warhead to deliver a destructive payload to its target. North Korea is believed to have a range of medium-to-long range ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear payloads. The most feared of these is the Hwasong-15, which is believed to have a range of up to 8,000 km. This range would allow the missile to reach not only South Korea, but Japan and even parts of the U.S. mainland.
International Impact
The threat of nuclear war from North Korea has had a tremendous impact on the international community. The United Nations Security Council has imposed a series of economic sanctions on North Korea to try and persuade the country to give up its nuclear weapons program. The United States and its allies have also carried out military exercises as a show of strength and to deter North Korea from launching a nuclear strike.
Political Implications
The political situation in the region has been strained since North Korea began its nuclear program. North Korea’s nuclear arsenal has been used as a bargaining chip in international negotiations and diplomacy. In 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met with the U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore in pursuit of denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula. However, diplomacy has stalled in recent months, with both sides unable to reach an agreement.
North Korea’s Nuclear Strategy
North Korea’s nuclear strategy is to gain international respect while using its weapons arsenal as leverage in negotiations. It is believed that North Korea is using its nuclear arsenal to gain diplomatic recognition and economic aid from the international community. In the past, North Korea has been willing to negotiate a denuclearization timeline if given the assurance that it would not be attacked.
Approaching a Solution
Finding a diplomatic resolution to the nuclear crisis will require both sides to come to the table and make compromises. North Korea will need to take the steps necessary to verifiably denuclearize, while the United States and its allies will need to provide North Korea with diplomatic recognition and provide economic assistance. Such an agreement would have to be backed by the international community and monitored in order for it to be successful.
Limitations of Sanctions
International sanctions placed on North Korea have had a limited effect on its nuclear program. These sanctions, which include a ban on exporting arms and fuel, have not been able to stop North Korea from advancing its nuclear weapons program. Sanctions have also been largely ineffective at compelling the North Korean government to negotiate a denuclearization agreement.
International Warnings
The international community has warned North Korea of the consequences of continued provocation. The United Nations Security Council has specifically condemned North Korea’s missile tests and urged the country to abandon its nuclear program. These warnings, however, have largely gone unheeded, as North Korea has continued with its nuclear program in defiance of international opinion.
Outlook on Nuclear Diplomacy
The outlook on nuclear diplomacy between North Korea and the United States remains uncertain. While negotiations between the two countries have stalled, there are signs that the countries are still talking and could reach an agreement. However, any successful agreement will need to include verification measures and sufficient guarantees that North Korea will be honest in its disarmament efforts.
