Background Information
North Korea has been attempting to develop nuclear weapons since the 1950s. The nation has conducted several nuclear tests since October 2006, and has since been under sanctions imposed by the United Nations and the United States. North Korea has long used the possibility of nuclear weapons to bolster its international standing and to counter the military strength of its adversaries, the United States and South Korea.
Despite the lack of progress towards denuclearization, North Korea has agreed to disarm in exchange for economic and diplomatic incentives several times since the 1990s. The 1994 Agreed Framework, the 2005 six party talks, and the 2017 joint statement with South Korea were all attempts to negotiate North Korea’s denuclearization.
Perspectives from Experts
According to Steve Ganyard, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Plans, Programs, and Operations, “there’s no indication that the Kim Jong Un regime is interested in denuclearization, given the vast economic benefits they receive from having a nuclear weapon.” Ganyard cautions that the United States should not enter into negotiations without fully understanding the incentives that North Korea has for maintaining its nuclear weapons.
Robbie Gramer, a Fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, believes that North Korea has an “incentive to keep its weapons, at least for now, to make sure its deterrence strategy works, especially as its primary rival, South Korea, ramps up its military capabilities.” For this reason, Gramer cautions that “North Korea will likely continue to protest denuclearization, despite international calls for it to do so.”
Relevant Data
In the 1990s, when North Korea was facing economic hardships, the nation agreed to denuclearize in exchange for economic aid and diplomatic incentives. In 1994, the U.S. and North Korea agreed to the Agreed Framework, in which the U.S. agreed to provide aid and alleviate sanctions in exchange for North Korea forgoing it’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.
In 2005, the six party talks were established with the purpose of denuclearizing North Korea. The talks included North Korea, the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and China. After several rounds of negotiations, the countries agreed to a blueprint for denuclearization, however the countries were unable to reach a definitive agreement.
Most recently, in 2017 South Korean president Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un issued a joint statement outlining the goal of “comprehensively removing the danger of war and robustly establishing a lasting peace regime.” The statement was seen as a commitment to denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, but negotiations between North Korea and the United States have remained limited.
Insights and Analysis
Though it has made commitments to denuclearizing in exchange for incentives, North Korea has yet to take significant, unilateral steps toward denuclearization. The country has previously reneged on its promises in order to gain leverage in negotiations, using its nuclear weapons program as a bargaining chip.
The tension between North Korea and the United States has led to distrust amongst the two nations, making it difficult for either side to make concessions. Furthermore, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) sees its nuclear weapons as essential for its survival, and is unlikely to disarm unless it is given security guarantees and other incentives.
Achieving Denuclearization
In order for North Korea to denuclearize, the United States and other countries must take an approach that does not place the burden of denuclearization solely on the DPRK. The United States must ensure that North Korea feels secure enough to disarm, with the assurance that other countries will not interfere in the nation’s domestic affairs or invade militarily.
The U.S. must also provide incentives to North Korea, such as economic and agricultural assistance, in order to convince the nation to denuclearize. Additionally, any denuclearization policy must address the proliferation of nuclear material that North Korea could potentially share with other rogue nations.
Initiating Talks
In order to make any progress towards denuclearization, both the U.S. and North Korea must be willing to engage in meaningful dialogue. The United States should not be afraid to initiate talks, as such negotiations could pave the way to a peaceful disarmament in the region.
It is important that North Korea feel respected and heard during negotiations, and that the U.S. emphasize the importance of following through on commitments. The two sides must be flexible and creative to ensure that both parties can receive the outcomes they are seeking from the talks.
Conclusion of Talks
Once negotiations have started, the U.S. must remain committed to their cause and not appear to cave in to the demands or concessions of North Korea. In order for successful negotiations to take place, both sides must be willing to compromise and come to an agreement that would benefit both nations.
Both nations have a responsibility to act in goodwill and keep an open dialogue to ensure that negotiations move forward in a positive direction. It is important to not to let tensions escalate, and to keep expectations realistic while moving negotiations forward.
Authority Building
A crucial step in achieving denuclearization is to build trust between the United States and North Korea. Both sides must take steps to build an atmosphere of transparency and respect, in order to create an environment based on understanding and mutual cooperation.
The United States can address this by offering North Korea greater diplomatic recognition, and by engaging in meaningful dialogue and mediation. This could take the form of trade agreements, cultural exchange programs, or even political summits. Such negotiations should dispel any misunderstandings or suspicions that North Korea may have about the United States.
Role of Regional Actors
In addition to the United States and North Korea, regional actors such as China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea, have a role to play in achieving denuclearization. Not only can these countries provide economic and military assistance to North Korea, but they can also act as mediators between the two nations and help to reduce the tension between them.
Furthermore, these countries can pressure North Korea to adhere to international nuclear non-proliferation policies and encourage the country to move towards denuclearization. Additionally, regional actors can work to ensure that North Korea has the necessary economic and political incentives to enter into negotiations and ultimately disarm.
Pressure from the International Community
The international community, specifically the United Nations, must remain vigilant and impose pressure on North Korea when necessary. This can take the form of economic sanctions, embargoes, or trade restrictions, which could help to incentivize the denuclearization process.
The United Nations can also look to set up a monitoring system that allows for a third-party to verify that North Korea is adhering to their agreements and keeping their commitments. Such a system would help to ensure that North Korea is living up to its promise to denuclearize.
