Cases in North Korea have become an alarming topic for those worried about the country’s health and well-being. Although the true numbers of COVID-19 cases in the hermit kingdom are not known, there are some indications that provide an educated guess. The country has not confirmed a single case of the virus, but experts suggest that this could be due to the lack of resources for testing rather than any evidence of containment success.
The World Health Organization estimated that the virus could have already spread through the country, estimating between 4,000 and 10,000 cases by the end of April. This was based on their analysis of the limited data collected through phone surveys and on the increase in exports of medical materials from North Korea. In Washington, the U.S. Department of Treasury has estimated that there could be over 10,000 cases already
The lack of medical supplies and infrastructure in North Korea would make detection of the virus virtually impossible. It has been revealed that the country does not have any lab procedures to accurately detect the virus, nor does the nation have enough test kits. In addition, there is a general mistrust of the government that prevents people from coming forward with concerns about their health, leading to an underestimation of the virus’s spread.
The geopolitical implications of the spread of the virus in North Korea should not be ignored. The country’s lack of trust in outsiders and strained relations with its neighbours could make it hard for neighbouring countries to provide assistance with containment and for aid. Furthermore, the risk of a spillover of the virus into South Korea is an ever-present danger.
It is unclear how the virus will progress in North Korea. It is difficult to make an accurate prediction, as the true number of cases could be far higher than is reported. The country’s lack of resources to detect and manage the virus could cause the current numbers to drastically increase over time. With no clear effective response to the pandemic in place, the future of North Korea and the region is uncertain.
Preventive Measures
In March, North Korea declared a state of emergency and imposed a number of preventive measures to limit the spread of COVID-19. These included restricting population movements and the closure of entry points to the country, such as airports and railway stations. The key measure that North Korea has taken to protect against the virus is the strict quarantine of travelers from affected areas.
Travellers must quarantine for periods of up to 21 days and all foreign citizens have been barred from entering the country since 20 March. These preventive measures may be effective in preventing a large-scale outbreak, as the mass movement of people is limited. However, this could magnify the long-term implications of a reduced supply of goods and materials and lead to a further decline in the people’s quality of life.
The internet and media have been heavily restricted in the country, with limited information being released to the public. It has been reported that North Korean citizens have been encouraged to avoid unnecessary physical contact, to wear masks and to self-quarantine. Nonetheless, with the same sources also reporting that masks are in short supply, coupled with a lack of education on the issue, it is likely that people here will struggle to protect themselves adequately.
Economic Impact
The economic impacts of COVID-19 on North Korea are likely to be severe. The country has seen a decline in trade with China and the rest of the world, leading to a significant drop in export revenues and access to vital commodities. This is expected to exacerbate existing problems such as poverty, malnutrition and a lack of medical supplies in the already struggling country.
The government’s scarce resources are likely to be focused on containing the virus, leaving them with less money to invest in healthcare and food production. This could lead to an increase in hunger and malnutrition, as well as a decrease in access to medical care. In addition, the effects of COVID-19 on the country’s tourism industry will be profound, with all foreign tourists banned since March.
These economic consequences of COVID-19 will be particularly burdensome for the country’s fragile economy, as it is heavily reliant on the exports of coal, fish, zinc and textiles for its survival. As such, the economic impacts of the pandemic could cause a disaster for the country unless the virus is successfully contained.
Geopolitical Risks
The issue of COVID-19 in North Korea also has geopolitical implications. Given the country’s close ties with China, the country’s northern neighbor, the spread of the virus could have an impact on relations between the two nations.
The North Korean government has been reluctant to cooperate with China on the issue, and reports have indicated that the country has restricted access to its borders, refused medical aid and refused to cooperate with the World Health Organization. This has led to concerns that the government may be unwilling to acknowledge the potential seriousness of the virus and may be attempting to conceal its true impact.
These actions could further isolate the country from its neighbors and lead to heightened tensions within the region. The geopolitical risks of the virus in North Korea should not be underestimated, as the spread of the virus could potentially worsen relations with China, the United States, South Korea and other nations.
Finding Solutions
Given the lack of information about the virus in North Korea and its potential impact, it is crucial to find solutions that can effectively contain COVID-19 in the country. International aid and assistance have been proposed as a potential solution, but these have been met with reluctance from the government.
The international community has yet to agree on a course of action to help North Korea tackle the issue of the virus. The United Nations and its agencies have proposed technical assistance, including epidemiological support and the supply of test kits, but these demands have so far been met with silence from Pyongyang.
The most effective solution to tackle the virus in North Korea may be to find a way to increase trust between the country and the outside world. This could be achieved through sanctions relief and dialogue between the international community and North Korean officials. This would not only foster cooperation on the issue of COVID-19, but could also act as a stepping-stone to stabilise the security situation in the region.
Living Conditions
The living conditions in North Korea are harsh and the people are already suffering severe deprivation. This has been highlighted in the wake of the pandemic as some have spoken out about their struggles to survive. The lack of healthcare, food insecurity, unemployment and the subsequent rise in poverty has caused dire hardship, with a freeze on wages and increases in prices of basic goods.
There are fears that the pandemic could push more people into poverty, erode savings and lead to a humanitarian crisis in the country. The government has asked for international aid to help mitigate the impacts of the virus and halt the spread of the virus. However, there are concerns that even if aid is provided, the lack of resources, expertise and personnel may not be able to prevent a disaster from occurring.
The effects of COVID-19 on North Korea are still uncertain, but one thing is clear: the virus has the potential to cause tremendous misery and suffering if it is not effectively managed. It is essential that the international community is able to come together to provide aid and technical assistance in a coordinated manner in order to successfully contain the virus and ensure the well-being of North Korean citizens.
