Overview
North Korea is a highly enigmatic society, encased within its own fabric of darkness and secrecy. Even as the Internet Age sets in, the country cloaks itself with a blanket of mystery and wariness, not just about the outside world, but even among its own citizens. Recent news about the country has raised the public’s attention even further, the attack aimed at Hawaii. With some of the island chain’s military personnel already on alert, and the United Nations Security Council keeping a close eye on the situation, speculation is rife as to whether North Korea is actually planning an attack on Hawaii.
Analysis
Though North Korea has threatened to attack the US, the probability of a successful attack on Hawaii remains low. Experts suggest that deterrence remains strong against the Hermit Kingdom since any direct aggression against the US would invite retaliation. North Korea’s assault on Hawaii would mean a direct confrontation with the US military, and the North Koreans lack the resources and know-how to outmatch the US superior military capabilities.
Increasing tensions between North Korea and the United States have led to suspicions that the former is amassing resources for a potential attack. In this context, an attack on Hawaii could pose a threat to US military bases, especially remote locations on islands in the region. Should any non state-sponsored attack happen, it is more likely that it would target Guam, a strategic US military presence in the south-western Pacific and the home of Andersen Air Force Base.
Notwithstanding that, the risk that North Korea would launch an attack from ships or submarines remains minimal. Given the short distance between Korean waters and Hawaii, it would be fairly easy for North Korean forces to enter Hawaiian waters or even launch an underwater drone strike. However, the question remains whether North Korean forces have the capability to carry out such a mission successfully.
Moreover, North Korea is cobbling together new weapons systems and advanced communications networks. It collects open source intelligence (OSINT) and conducts global analysis on adversaries to buy sufficient time and military readiness. This in turn increases North Korea’s capacity to surprise an adversary with a devastating attack. However, the means to deliver these massive strikes to such a long distance, across many thousands of kilometers of open water and control them with accuracy, remain a mystery.
Views of Experts
Analysts have concluded that North Korea’s capabilities are not yet mature to launch a successful attack. As per John Brady Kiesling, a retired US diplomat, North Korea “enjoys a full measure of normalcy in its kingdom and a thriving if cruelly managed economy.” Kiesling believes that North Korea is “selling the idea that they can hit Hawaii” to gain sympathy from other countries.
Global consulting firm, Verisk Maplecroft has stated that the serious readiness gaps in North Korea’s forces indicate that any attack on US territory, including Hawaii, is highly unlikely. Per the firm, the current global security environment does not provide an operational or tactical opportunity for North Korea to attack US territory.
Euan Graham, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney has voiced concerns that North Korea might launch a naval-based attack from an intercontinental ballistic missile-equipped submarine. However, even as Graham agrees that North Korea does possess missile capabilities, it has not tested a submarine missile for a long distance.
South Korean Perspective
South Korea maintains that a North Korean attack on Hawaii is extremely unlikely. Analysts suggest that the current diplomatic maneuvers between North and South Korea point to its warming ties. North Korea has holds an extensive nuclear Arsenal but the leaders of both the sides are in talks to improve the relationship. Also North Korea has suspended its nuclear and missile tests, nuclear development sites and missile launch sites.
In addition to these efforts, the South Korean government’s National Security Advisor Chung Eui-yong stated in a press conference that “the core mission of the new government is to establish a peace regime and to firmly commit to its implementation through dialogues and negotiations.” This statement thus indicates a reduction in the rising tensions between the North and the South, and shows that North Korea isn’t likely to attack Hawaii.
Political Effects
The consequences of any attack on Hawaii would be grave, with implications beyond the limits of a mere military battle. Protracted hostility between the two countries would shake the global political climate and affect foreign relations.
In the recent times, there has been an uneasy silence between Washington and Pyongyang. President Donald Trump’s administration has raised doubts over North Korea’s denuclearization pledges and further pressurized the already strained relationship between them. It is therefore not wise to expect any attack from North Korea, as they don’t want to sabotage the ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Geopolitical implications
Attacking Hawaii would put US allies in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region at risk. The threat of war with North Korea might bring losses to both nations, but also to US allies like South Korea, China and Japan. All these countries would face huge economic losses and bear the burden of enduring political chaos as well.
The US-China trade relationship is well-known and any disruption in it can hamper the global economy. An attack on Hawaii may spark a domino effect of economic instability that could affect countries the world over. International investors may become more cautious and financial markets will bear the brunt of these dire geopolitical developments.
Renewed Cooperation
Due to these factors, war between the two nations is highly unlikely at the moment. The increasing support to the notion of diplomacy and negotiation over military confrontation appears to be the only solution. The Trump Administration has agreed to talks with North Korea, which reveals a substantial shift in attitudes on both sides of the Korean peninsula.
The US is also taking realistic steps to create an atmosphere for new opportunities and informed of US strategies. For instance, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently offered to provide North Korea with an irrevocable security guarantee. This indicates that the US is willing to take trust-building actions, like providing denuclearization and sanctions relief in exchange for achievable goals.
A New Beginning
If the parties involved get to the negotiating table and North Korea voluntarily dismantles its nuclear reactor, then the US will lift sanctions, resulting in an increase in tourism, trade, and international investments. This also allows North Korea to strengthen ties with its former adversaries and enhance peace and stability in the region.
The administration is also looking to garner support from world leaders, to actively engage in diplomacy and bring about a peaceful resolution to the problem. The Trump Administration is in contact with South Korea and Japan, to coordinate their steps in the process and take a cohesive stance against Pyongyang.
In conclusion, the US, Japan, South Korea, China and other stakeholders must continue to maintain dialogue, and build trust and understanding with North Korea. War must not be an option and the US should intensify its diplomatic engagement with North Korea to bring the Hermit Kingdom into the international community.
