Political History of North Korea
North Korea has a history of oppressive and authoritarian rule. The country was founded in 1948, when the Soviet Union installed Kim Il-sung as its leader. Kim Il-sung ruled until 1994, when his son, Kim Jong-il, assumed control and solidified North Korea’s place as an isolated dictatorship. Under their rule, human rights abuses flourished and a cult of personality developed around the Kim family. This made North Korea one of the most reclusive and opaque nations in the world.
In 2011, Kim Jong-il died and was succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-un. He has continued North Korea’s isolationist stance and has led the country’s economy from an industrial base to a more nuclear-centric one. During his rule, there have been numerous international condemnations and sanctions imposed on North Korea for its oppressive policies and human rights abuses, most recently in 2017.
Recent Reports of Kim Jong-Un’s Death
Recently, in April 2020, reports began to emerge of a possible health crisis in North Korea, leading to speculations that Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, had died.
At the center of these rumors was a video footage of Kim Jong-un landing on the tarmac of an airport in the city of Wonsan. This was followed by weeks of silence from official North Korean sources and reports of increased activity in the country’s security forces.
In response to these rumors, North Korea took the unusual step of officially denying them, with state-run media broadcasting a live interview of Kim Jong-un, who appeared to be in good health.
Impact of Kim Jong-Un’s Health on North Korea and beyond
Kim Jong-un’s health is of immense significance to the North Korean people and to the world as a whole. If Kim Jong-un were to die, either from natural causes or from ill health, there is speculation that it would lead to a power struggle within the North Korean leadership and create instability in the region.
Moreover, it would give an opportunity for outside powers to affect a change of government, as Kim Jong-un has no known designated heir. This could potentially lead to further economic sanctions, military interventions, and renewed nuclear weapons tests, all of which would have a destabilizing effect on the region.
Experts’ Perspectives on Kim Jong-Un’s Life Status
For their part, experts in international affairs are divided on the status of Kim Jong-un’s life. Some speculate that he is suffering from an illness and is in failing health, or even on the brink of death. Others suggest that North Korea is deliberately deceiving the world in order to maintain an illusion of stability and continuity of leadership.
Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, an expert on North Korea from the American Enterprise Institute, believes the former. He believes the erratic behavior of the North Korean regime, such as their canceling of a recent military parade, is evidence that Kim Jong-un is ill or even dead. Other experts, such as Dr. Andrei Lankov from Korea Risk Group, suggests that the reports of Kim Jong-un’s death are exaggerated – and that the North Korean regime is merely trying to maintain stability and control of the country during a time of fragility.
Analysis of the Situation
At present, the true status of Kim Jong-un’s health is unknown, and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. People inside and outside North Korea are left to speculate and ponder his fate – with no clear answers.
What is clear, however, is that North Korea has long been a nation of oppression and authoritarian rule. If Kim Jong-un were to die, it is likely that the country would enter a period of upheaval, with potentially dangerous consequences for the region and beyond.
Effects of the Situation on People In and Outside of North Korea
Despite the uncertainties, the situation has already had a major effect on the people of North Korea, both inside and outside the country. For those in the country, the lack of information has added to the already oppressive atmosphere of fear. For those outside, the lack of clarity has led to speculation and speculation has led to further paranoia. This has only been compounded by North Korea’s dismal record on human rights and the precarious nature of nuclear armaments in the region.
The newly expanded security perimeter around the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, is evidence of this fear – with sources reporting an increase in military presence in the region. The closing off of North Korea to the rest of the world has also raised suspicions, particularly as the health of Kim Jong-un is now the focus of international attention.
International Reactions to the Situation
Internationally, there have been various responses to the uncertain situation. The United Nations Security Council has held emergency meetings in response to the reports, while China and South Korea have increased their level of diplomatic engagement with North Korea in order to monitor the situation.
A high-level meeting between senior diplomats of the United States, China, and South Korea is also scheduled for the week of June 8th in Seoul to address the matter. The international community has also urged restraint on a military level, with the United States and other countries warning against any rash action.
Possibility of a Succession Crisis
At present, it remains uncertain who, if anyone, would succeed Kim Jong-un if he were to die. While there have been reports that Kim Jong-un has designated a successor, it remains unclear who the person is or even whether the succession plan is in place.
In the event of Kim Jong-un’s death, there is a risk of a succession crisis within the North Korean leadership, which could lead to further fragility, instability and insecurity amongst the North Korean people and in the region as a whole.
Analyzing the Situation in a Broader Context
Amid all the uncertainty and speculation, it is important to look at the broader context. North Korea has long been ruled by an oppressive and authoritarian regime, with human rights abuses and suppression of dissent being a constant feature.
If Kim Jong-un were to die, it is likely that the country would enter a period of great upheaval and instability, with potentially far-reaching consequences. It is in this context that any potential change in the leadership of North Korea must be viewed, with all actors exercising caution and restraint to ensure the situation does not spiral out of control.
International Pressure and Human Rights Considerations
The international community has a responsibility to ensure that any potential change in the leadership of North Korea is consistent with international standards of human rights and democracy. In this regard, the recent increase in international engagement and diplomatic activity between North Korea, South Korea and the United States is a positive development.
It is also encouraging that the United Nations has remained actively engaged in the matter and is providing a platform for all parties to discuss the situation. The United Nations should continue to exercise its influence in the matter and ensure that any potential transition of power is in line with international standards of human rights and democracy.
Effect of Sanctions on North Korea
Another issue that must be addressed is the effect of international sanctions on North Korea. The international community has imposed harsh economic sanctions on North Korea for its human rights abuses, nuclear armaments development and other illegal activities.
Recent reports suggest that these sanctions have led to a deterioration in the North Korean economy and to growing food insecurity amongst the North Korean people. While it is important to ensure that North Korea is held accountable for its actions, it is equally important to ensure that the broader aim of promoting democracy and human rights is not forgotten in the process.
Role of China and South Korea in the Issue
Finally, the role of China and South Korea in this issue deserves heightened scrutiny. Both countries share a long and complex history with North Korea, and as such, have a vested interest in the stability of the region.
China has traditionally been seen as a key ally of North Korea, providing the regime with diplomatic and economic support. Meanwhile, in recent years, South Korea has sought to engage in closer diplomatic and economic ties with North Korea in order to foster peace and stability in the region.
Going forward, the international community should monitor how these two traditional allies of North Korea act in the event of Kim Jong-un’s death or any potential transition of power.
