Background
Since the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, in 2011, the supreme leader of North Korea, 28-year-old Kim Jong Un, has been in power. There has been much speculation about his health in recent years, particularly since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reports of his demise began circulating in April 2020 and were fuelled by satellite images of Kim’s residence and rumours about his worsening health. These rumours intensified after Kim was absent from the anniversary celebrations of the birth of his father on 15 February 2021, which marked the first time in 10 years the leader had failed to attend these festivities.
In April 2021, North Korea’s official KCNA news agency reported that nothing was wrong with Kim and he had attended a meeting with officials the previous month. Yet, many western observers remain convinced that Kim is either dead, or very seriously ill. This is owing to the fact that North Korean officials have not produced any compelling evidence to refute the claim that Kim is indeed dead or incapacitated.
Analysis
The Korean Peninsula has been a hotspot in the geopolitical landscape of Asia for many years. North Korea is a reclusive state known for its outdated economic policies and heavy-handed brand of state control. The Kim dynasty, which has ruled the country since its formal establishment after the Second World War, has relied on its military power to maintain control. Kim Jong Il himself was a by-the-book autocrat who had absolute control over the engines of government and the military.
The current ruler, Kim Jong Un, is a very different kind of leader. He is more bellicose than his father, but he is also more willing to reach out to foreign countries and make deals. He has sought to foster a more progressive economy in North Korea and reach a deal with the United States to normalize relations. His disappearance, then, might be a sign that the era of North Korean hardline policies under the Kim dynasty is coming to an end.
Relevant Data
The lack of an authoritative source of information from North Korea makes it difficult to accurately assess the situation. However, there are several indicators which indicate that Kim may indeed be dead or incapacitated. The most significant example is the fact that Kim has still not made an appearance at any major public events since his disappearance, even though he often used to make public appearances as a matter of routine.
In addition, there have been recent reports of high-ranking North Korean officials making rare trips to China, suggesting that they may be trying to secure support against a potential succession crisis. Finally, there have been reports that Kim’s sister and advisor, Kim Yo Jong, has been seen taking on a more visible role in North Korean politics. All of these things point to the fact that something unusual is afoot in the North Korean leadership.
Expert Perspectives
The opinions of experts on the subject of Kim’s health and wellbeing vary. Some experts, such as David Maxwell of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, contend that Kim is alive but very seriously ill. Others, such as Prof. Robert Kelly of Pusan National University, believe that Kim is either dead or incapacitated, as there is no serious evidence that he is still alive and running the country.
Experts also warn of the potential consequences of a power vacuum in North Korea, particularly in regards to the country’s nuclear weapons. Many experts point out that, while Kim’s rule has been highly authoritarian, it has also been largely successful in keeping North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs in check. If Kim is no longer in power, there is a chance that a less restrained leader could emerge and start a nuclear arms race in the region.
My Analysis
While the evidence is circumstantial, it seems likely that Kim Jong Un is, in fact, dead or incapacitated. The lack of definite information coming from North Korea is ominous, and the rumours of a power struggle among the elite suggest that a transition of some kind is underway. The ramifications of this are potentially huge, both for the region and for the wider world.
The biggest fear, of course, is that whoever takes control of the country might be more hawkish in their approach to the outside world and might seek to restart the nuclear program. This would, naturally, be hugely destabilizing for the region and could lead to a full-blown arms race in the region. It is therefore absolutely essential that, whatever happens in North Korea, stability is maintained and the proliferation of nuclear weapons is kept in check.
Potential Successors
Should Kim Jong Un have passed away, the question remains of who will succeed him. Potentially, it could be his sister, Kim Yo Jong, who has been taking a more visible role in the country’s political life in recent years. This would mark a significant departure from the Kim dynasty, which has held power since the end of the Second World War. At the same time, there is also the potential for a more hardline leader to take power and restart the nuclear program, which could lead to a regional arms race.
It is, of course, too early to tell who will take over from Kim, if indeed he is dead or incapacitated. It is essential, however, that any transition of power is managed carefully and in a way that does not lead to wider disruption. In particular, it is crucial that North Korea’s nuclear program stays firmly in check.
Protests
The possibility of a change of leadership in North Korea has led to protests in the country. The general population is unhappy with the state of the country under the Kim dynasty and is hoping for a more open, progressive regime. The protests have been summarily crushed by the North Korean security forces, but they serve to demonstrate the potential for a more open North Korea should a more progressive leader come to power.
The protests also show the potential danger of a sudden transition of power. While the protesters are hoping for a more open government, it is entirely possible that a more authoritarian leader could emerge and the protests could be turned against them. This could lead to further disruption in the country and a potential clash with China, South Korea and the United States, who all have significant interests in the region.
International Response
The international community has been largely silent on the matter of Kim Jong Un’s health and whereabouts. The United States, South Korea and Japan have all expressed concerns, but they have thus far refrained from making any concrete moves. This may be due to the fact that they do not want to provoke an already fragile North Korea, or it could be because they are waiting to see who will come to power in the event of Kim’s death.
This reaction is understandable, considering the volatility of the region and the fact that any disruption in North Korea could lead to tension with China, South Korea and the United States. It is essential that the international community remain vigilant and closely monitor any developments in the region.
Ongoing Speculation
The biggest takeaway from all of this is that it is impossible to say for certain whether Kim Jong Un is alive or dead. The lack of confirmation from North Korea does not help the situation, and it is likely that speculation about the leader’s health and whereabouts will continue until concrete evidence is provided. In the meantime, the international community must remain vigilant and prepared for any eventuality.
Regardless of the outcome, it is clear that a potential transition of power in the Korean Peninsula has the potential to have major implications for the region and the wider world. It is essential, then, that the international community remain vigilant and ready to deal with any eventuality.
