Kim Jong-un’s Death
North Korea has remained silent on the status of Kim Jong-un since he failed to appear at the April 15th celebrations, sparking speculation that the North Korean leader is dead – or possibly incapacitated. Reports of Kim Jong-un’s death or illness first emerged in April when the Supreme Leader failed to appear at the state’s biggest national holiday, the Day of the Sun, which celebrated his grandfather and founder of North Korea. Rumours have since swirled on social media, citing officials claiming that Kim has already died, is in a coma or a vegetative state after undergoing surgery that went wrong. Questions have been raised about whether the leader is still alive and how this could shape the future of North Korea.
North Korea’s secretive nature has made it nearly impossible for outside observers to determine Kim’s fate. Official government spokespersons have been notably tight lipped on the issue, despite widespread international interest. The official line has largely been ‘it will be disclosed when the time is right’, leading some to believe that the regime may be waiting for the right opportunity to announce news of the leader’s death or incapacitation without alarming its own citizens or prompting massive disruption to the nation.
However, some North Korea experts have downplayed speculation that Kim has died or is incapacitated. According to Prof. Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University, the Supreme Leader did not appear in public due to severe physical condition. Lankov suggests that Kim has suffered a medical emergency and has not yet recovered – leading some to believe that he may be convalescing in a Bukchon villa in Pyongyang, or under the care of a trusted medical advisor. Others have suggested that the secrecy surrounding the leader’s health may be a sign of power struggle between competing faction within the government.
Whatever the truth, it is clear that Kim’s death or incapacitation would have profound effects on the future of North Korea. With no clear successor, the nation would be left with an uncertain political future, ushering in changes in both domestic and foreign policy. As the country holds nuclear weapons, there is also the potential for instability in the region if a power vacuum were to emerge. This could ultimately lead to a power struggle between the various factions and the potential for increased tension in the region.
Reign of Kim Jong-un
Kim Jong-un succeeded his father, Kim Jong-il, in 2011, and promptly began consolidating power as Supreme Leader. Though still relatively young compared to his father and grandfather, his reign has marked an era of North Korean nuclear development and economic liberalization. Kim has furthered economic growth initiatives, such as economic zones, international investment and tourism, while also regulating foreign investment and cracking down on corruption. Meanwhile, Kim has maintained a strong government presence in public life; censoring media and criminalizing dissent.
In addition, Kim has sought to consolidate North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and build his own cult of personality, granting him greater control and legitimizing his rule. He has developed strategic partnerships with China and Russia, while maintaining a hostile stance against the United States and South Korea. Despite ongoing international sanctions and domestic unrest, the North Korean government continues to support its nuclear ambitions, displaying a sense of resolve and urgency.
Though Kim Jong-un has garnered support from his own people and within the international community, his rule has been characterized by controversy and often violent rhetoric. The apparent assassination of his half-brother, Kim Jong Nam, in 2017, is one example of the regime’s power and brutality. On a more positive note, Kim has made several overtures for peace by joining denuclearization talks in the area known as “The Six-Party Talks”.
Despite the secrecy of his rule, Kim Jong-un has arguably helped stabilize North Korea, grow its economy and launch globalization initiatives. Though it remains to be seen how these developments will translate in the future, it is clear that his reign has enabled a more progressive regime.
Possible Successors
Speculation surrounding the future of North Korea has sparked the question of who might brew Kim, should it be necessary. North Korea’s first female leader and former North Korean leader Kim Il-sung’s daughter, Kim Jung-sook, is one possible successor. But the real contender might be Kim’s younger sister, Kim Yo-jong. She has risen quickly through the ranks, becoming an important member of her brother’s inner circle, and recently taking on the role of first vice director of the Workers’ Party of Korea.
Kim Yo-jong is thought to be the figure with the most potential to inherit the positions held by her brother. She has been credited with modernizing the images of her brother and the Pyongyang regime, pushing pro-regime messages through social media, and even engineering the Summit between her brother and US President Donald Trump. Her increased public profile could support the notion that she is being prepared for higher office.
Other contenders include Kim Yo-jong’s husband, Choe Song, a deputy director in the Party, and Kim Pyong-il, Kim Il-sung’s half-brother. He, like Kim Yo-jong, has gained prominence in recent years, amassing more titles while becoming the North’s point man with other countries. However, it is widely accepted that Kim Yo-jong appears to be the main player in any potential leadership succession.
Role of Nuclear Arsenal
One of the major questions surrounding a potential succession is the role of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program in any potential scenarios. It remains uncertain to what extent the leader’s death or incapacitation would impact the countries nuclear ambitions. However, the potential of a power vacuum could potentially increase the chance of North Korea using these weapons in the pursuit of regional and international instability.
The leadership of the North Korean military – including the Korean People’s Army – will be critical in any successor negotiations, as they are likely to influence how Kim’s successor approaches issues such as the nuclear program. This is compounded by the fact that the military holds much of the power in the country. As such, any potential successor would likely be wary of alienating them and potentially become embroiled in a power struggle with the military.
Meanwhile, recent changes in the Chinese government may also influence how North Korea proceeds with its nuclear ambitions. Recent events, such as the Chinese President’s announcement that he will not seek re-election, could have implications for the future of North Korea, particularly in relation to China’s role in negotiations over denuclearization.
Effects on the Region
Should Kim Jong-un die or become incapacitated, it could have profound effects on the region. It is unclear what the North Korean government may seek to do to retain power, with the potential for increased tension in the region should a power vacuum emerge. Any potential successor would have to negotiate with other countries – or factions – to retain power, potentially leading to increased military presence in the region. It is also possible that other countries may choose to fill the power vacuum in an attempt to gain influence over the region.
Kim’s death could also lead to an economic slump, as the country is heavily reliant on the leaders rule to support its economic initiatives. Without clear leadership, North Korea may struggle to secure investment, with foreign businesses potentially opting to withhold funding until a clearer consensus develops in the country. Any reduced access to the global market could negatively impact the North Korean economy, further weakening its government.
International sanctions have had a significant impact on North Korea’s economy and could become more stringent should Kim Jong-un pass away. The Trump administration has already tightened some of the restrictions imposed on North Korea since 2018, and the effects would likely be magnified should a power vacuum emerge. It is possible that some US allies – including South Korea, Japan and the United Kingdom – may move to impose their own sanctions in the event of Kim’s death.
North Korea’s Future
The fate of North Korea is dependent on the well being of Kim Jong-un and his potential successor. If the leader is incapacitated, the effects on North Korea could range from increased tension in the region to economic instability. Without a clear successor, the future of North Korea is uncertain as power struggles could emerge between competing factions.
In the event of a power struggle, international powers may use diplomatic measures to negotiate the transition of power. China is likely to play an integral role in any potential negotiations, as it holds the most influence over North Korea’s decision-makers and is set to take the lead on diplomatic matters.
Ultimately, it is clear that the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Kim’s status will continue to shape the future of North Korea and the region. As the situation remains unclear, it is important to remain wary of rumors and misinformation regarding his status, while being mindful of how any potential instability could impact global stability.
