Background Information
Russia and North Korea have maintained a cooperative relationship for decades, but the extent of their alliance remains a source of debate and speculation. Reports of Russian military and economic assistance to North Korea intensified after the Cold War ended in 1991, when the two countries began supplementing their historical ties with increased economic, political, energy, and military aid. Russia has seemed to support North Korea openly, by recognizing North Korea in 1992 and offering to build an oil pipeline directly to its coast. More recent reports suggest that Russia is stepping up its involvement, providing aid and supplies to North Korea and helping to preserve the struggling regime.
Relevant Data
The economic ties between Russia and North Korea are strong, with North Korea having a $1.09 billion trade deficit with Russia in 2017. Some reports suggest that North Korea is heading towards a state of de facto dependence on the Kremlin, with estimates of the support it has received ranging from $1 billion to $10 billion. One of the main advantages of Russian support is the ability to obtain goods and services without paying in cash due to bilateral trade deals.
In addition to economic aid, there is evidence that Russia is providing military support to North Korea. According to a report issued by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in 2017, there were multiple instances of Russian-made weaponry and equipment being sold to North Korea in violation of United Nations sanctions. In 2018, Russia conducted a joint military exercise with North Korea, in defiance of condemning statements from the international community.
Perspectives from Experts
Experts disagree on the extent of Russian support to North Korea. Some argue that, though Russian support to North Korea remains substantial, the Kremlin is gradually distancing itself and is no longer providing unconditional backing. Others, however, point to the numerous instances of military cooperation and arms sales as evidence of the continued strong ties between the two countries.
Moreover, there is a debate over the impact of Russia’s involvement in the region. Some argue that Russia is offering North Korea legitimacy and protection in the long-term, while others believe that Russia sees North Korea as a way to further its own interests and that it does not genuinely have North Korea’s best interests at heart.
Insights and Analysis
Though it is difficult to discern the exact level of involvement between Russia and North Korea, it is clear that the two countries have a strong relationship built on mutual interests. Russia sees the patronage of North Korea as a way to gain influence in East Asia and to assert itself as a major power in global politics. North Korea, in turn, relies on the support of Russia to strengthen its economy and to protect itself from potential adversaries.
In addition, though Russia has shown displeasure with North Korean rhetoric, it has been reluctant to impose much-needed economic sanctions on North Korea. This could be because of a fear of pushing North Korea towards more internationally alienated countries such as China and potentially bringing instability to the region.
It is worth noting, however, that the power dynamics between Russia and North Korea are not clear-cut. Recent reports suggest that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is attempting to develop a lasting partnership with Russia, as he plans for a future without US-destabilizing threats such as sanctions. This could indicate that North Korea may have more influence than what outsiders have assumed.
Environmental Impacts
Though the economic and military aspects of the Russia-North Korea ties have been widely discussed, it is important to consider their impact on the environment and public health. North Korea is facing its worst drought in 16 years since the 1950-53 war, with the UN stating that the country could see food shortages of up to one million metric tons. The lack of water, coupled with a lack of agricultural and environmental technological progress, will make it even more difficult for the North Korean people to obtain the food and water that they need.
Furthermore, reports by the UN Environment Program (UNEP) suggest that North Korea is becoming more environmentally degraded, with harmful toxins such as mercury, lead and cadmium entering the ecosystem and polluting natural reserves. Recent tests on the soil, water and food of the country indicate that consumption of locally produced food is exacerbated the population’s exposure to contaminants. In addition, the North Korean government continues to fuel its power plants using petrol, coal and diesel, exacerbating air pollution and exposure to hazardous levels of smog.
It is important to note that, despite Russia’s support, North Korea is largely still responsible for its own environmental degradation. More must be done by the country to end its reliance on antiquated energy sources and to implement progressive clean-energy initiatives, such as solar and wind power, to bolster its sustainable and economic development.
Economic Development Initiatives
Though Russia’s economic and military aid has provided some stability to North Korea, the benefits have not been shared evenly amongst the population. At present, most North Korean citizens do not have access to basic goods and services, and the country remains impoverished.
Various initiatives have been proposed by the North Korean government and private entities to address the issue, such as creating Special Economic Zones and granting foreign investors preferential taxation options. These initiatives could enable North Korea to open up to the global market and to invest in development projects to help the country move forward.
However, North Korea is facing obstacles in its quest for economic progress. Foreign sanctions, imposed primarily by the US, have stifled its progress, and reports suggest that the country is currently lagging behind its regional neighbors in terms of economic advancement.
In addition, bureaucratic structures and technology barriers further impede innovation. For example, North Korea is believed to be unable to produce goods efficiently at the same cost as in other countries, and is reliant on outdated agricultural methods that hamper yield and productivity.
North Korea’s Role in the International System
Since North Korea’s emergence from Japanese rule, the country has been largely isolated from the international community, often failing to uphold international standards of rights and civil liberties. It has also been hostile towards the US and other Western nations, which in turn have imposed economic sanctions that have decimated the North Korean economy.
It is worth noting, however, that North Korea has shown signs of progress in recent years, allowing foreign entities to invest in the country and making improvements in its human rights record. North Korea has also become more open to negotiations, engaging in discussions with South Korea and the US.
Moreover, North Korea has emerged as a major player in the East Asian political arena, engaging in diplomatic talks with its neighbors and engaging in various global issues, such as the disarmament of nuclear weapons. It is clear that North Korea is attempting to break through its isolation and join the international community, primarily through its relationship with Russia.
Russian Assistance in International Relationships
In recent years, the Kremlin has been playing an instrumental role in ushering North Korea’s emergence onto the global stage. North Korea is currently holding talks with major powers such as the US and China, and Russia has been a mediator in negotiations between the two countries.
Additionally, Russia has been providing ammunition to North Korea to help it further engage on the diplomatic front. Russia has offered to build an oil pipeline directly to North Korea’s coast, and it has also provided assistance in the form of military hardware and economic aid.
However, it remains to be seen whether the assistance provided by the Kremlin will lead to meaningful change in North Korea. While North Korea is gradually expanding its engagement on the diplomatic front, the long-term future of the country remains subject to debate.
Political Ideology
North Korea is officially a communist state, but its ideologies are increasingly diverging from traditional Marxist-Leninist views. The Kim leadership, for instance, has focused on economic autonomy and maintaining its presence in the international system, rather than revolutionizing the political and economic landscape.
At the same time, the North Korean government continues to emphasize the development of a unique national identity amongst its citizens. This includes the proliferation of North Korean culture, the celebration of military service, and the establishment of the “Kim cult”, which puts the country’s leader, Kim Jong-Un, at the center of the political system.
Moreover, North Korea is attempting to attract foreign investment and develop its economy, though reports indicate that some of these initiatives are causing much-needed resources to be sucked away from the most deprived citizens. North Korea has also developed its own nuclear weapons program, although this has drawn international condemnation and accusation of violation of international law.
Final Thoughts
Russia and North Korea have a strong relationship built on mutual interests and the preservation of geopolitical balance. While Russia has provided much-needed aid, supplies, and military cooperation to North Korea, it remains to be seen whether its assistance will lead to meaningful change for the isolated country. In addition, the adherence to a distinct political ideology and the emergence of a distinct national identity in North Korea has further complicated the relationship between the two countries and raised questions about their future direction.
