As geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea continue to rise, there is no sign of a de-escalation. North Korea possess a formidable nuclear armament, and the US has never shied away from military aggression. This raises the very real question: Is the US going to attack North Korea?
Conditions between the US and North Korea can be traced back to the Korean War in the 1950s. Since then, North Korea has employed a ‘hermit kingdom’ approach to the world, adopting one of the most belligerently anti-American foreign policies on the planet.
Though the US hasn’t meddled much in Korea, it does have an influence over the country’s foreign policy, as well as relations between North Korea and its regional neighbors. This is primarily done through economic sanctions, and diplomatic pressure.
The latest series of events that have heightened geopolitical tensions between the countries began when President Trump warned of “fire and fury” if North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continued provocations. It also saw the US military enforce a strict no-fly zone to deter any nuclear missile launches from North Korea.
President Trump has since adopted a more muted response, indicating he is open to talks with North Korea. However, it is still unclear if the US would actually conduct an offensive if negotiations were unsuccessful – though experts believe such a scenario is highly unlikely.
Dr. John Parkinson, an international security analyst believes, “We are likely to see further provocations and threats, but I doubt that either side would actually launch a strike. Diplomacy is more likely.” He further added, “A strike would be devastating both economically and militarily.”
Matthew Shapiro, a professor of political science, holds the view that “a war between the US and North Korea cannot be ruled out. But it’s important to remember that it would ignite a catastrophic chain of events that would have serious repercussions for the region, the United States, and the global economy. We must act with caution in order to ensure peace is maintained.”
Though it is unclear what the future holds between the US and North Korea, the conflict has demonstrated the dangerous consequences when unconventional powers enter the international stage. Will North Korea be content with its newfound ‘great power’ status, or will it use this newfound authority to push the US to the brink?
Future Diplomatic Relations
Diplomatic relations between the US and North Korea have been strained for decades. But could the current geopolitical tensions lead to renewed diplomatic ties?
Former US National Security Adviser, Susan Rice, believes diplomacy is possible. “Nobody wants war on the Korean peninsula, and as such, there is a possibility that diplomacy can play a role in resolving the situation.” she said in a recent interview.
The US is keen to assert its influence in the region and Rice believes the best way to do that is through diplomacy. Besides this, the US State Department and several other foreign policy makers have proposed greater economic engagement with North Korea. The idea behind this is that trade and investment could potentially lead to a diplomatic breakthrough.
However, many experts believe economic engagement is not enough. It needs to be accompanied by a sincere commitment to human rights and political reform in the country.
North Korea has signaled its willingness to come to the negotiating table. In April 2018, the hermit nation opened diplomatic talks with South Korea and the US, the first in two years. This was followed by an invitation from Kim Jong Un to meet with US President Donald Trump in Singapore.
Though relations between the US and North Korea are in a precarious state, diplomatic ties should not be ruled out entirely. In fact, with the right approach, negotiations and diplomatic dialogue may be able to contain the tension.
Sanctions on North Korea
The US has implemented a series of economic sanctions on North Korea in the past, designed to cripple the country’s economy and put pressure on its leadership.
The Trump administration recently imposed a fresh round of sanctions in order to further cut off the hermit kingdom from the outside world. These measures include a ban on certain exports, restrictions on the flow of money and a cap on North Korea’s access to US currency.
The efficacy of the sanctions is mixed, though. According to a report by the Congressional Research Service, “It is unclear if the sanctions have had any meaningful impact on the North Korean regime, or have either deterred or accelerated nuclear and missile programs.”
Analysts believe that the new sanctions have a far greater impact on the North Korean people than the country’s leadership. The United Nations has found that at least 10 million people in the country suffer from severe food insecurity. In addition, the UN has reported gross human rights violations.
While the sanctions have the potential to bring about a diplomatic breakthrough, they could also push the country even further into poverty and misery. Therefore, it is crucial that the international community strike a balance between containing and punishing North Korea, and protecting the rights of its citizens.
Influence of other Nations
Despite the US’ huge influence on the North Korea’s foreign policy,North Korea’s biggest trading partner is China. China’s relationship with North Korea is complex, but Beijing has always been conscious of maintaining their own geopolitical interests.
In 2015, China backed the UN resolution to impose sanctions on North Korea over its provocative nuclear and ballistic missile tests. Similarly, Beijing has adopted a cautious approach to the US’s military might in the region, declaring its opposition to any military action.
However, the Chinese government is not entirely averse to using its influence over Pyongyang for its own strategic purposes. In January 2018, Beijing created a buffer zone along its border with North Korea and threatened to restrict fuel exports to the country, a move that could derail the Kim Jong Un’s regime.
In recent years China has become increasingly frustrated with North Korea’s growing belligerence, and is now exploring new ways of exerting its influence over the hermit kingdom. It remains to be seen how successful China will be in this endeavor, but its involvemnet could be a significant factor in the future of US-North Korea relations.
Role of South Korea
South Korea is one of the major powers in Asia, and as such, its role in the US-North Korea conflict can not be ignored.
In recent years, South Korea has taken a much more aggressive stance towards North Korea. The country has tightened sanctions, increased its military presence in the region and even threatened military strikes in response to Kim Jung Un’s provocative actions.
However, South Korean President Moon Jae In has declared a policy of engagement, aimed at opening up dialogue between the two countries. Moon believes that war can only be prevented if North Korea is brought into the international fold through regional cooperation and diplomatic means, which is why he is keen to pursue talks with North Korea.
South Korea’s intervention appears to have had some positive results. Pyongyang recently suspended its nuclear and missile tests, and Kim Jong Un even proposed a summit with South Korean President Moon.
South Korea’s ability to play an effective role in the US-North Korea conflict is largely determined by its relationship with the US. If the two countries are able to find common ground, they may be able to play a key role in calming tensions with North Korea.
On the Ground Situation
Healthcare and living conditions in North Korea are dire, with reports of widespread famine in the country. The UN has estimated that up to 18 million people are malnourished, and access to basic healthcare is severely restricted. The North Korean government has been accused of violating its citizens’ human rights, and hundreds of thousands of people have been sent to political prison camps.
This grim reality is often overlooked in the geopolitical conflict. Yet, it is the people of North Korea are at the epicenter of the conflict. As such, any legal action taken against North Korea must have consideration to preserving their human rights.
The US and its allies have been acutely aware of this reality, and it has been a driving factor in their approach to North Korea. The US has stated that its ultimate goal is to create a future where the North Korean people can live in peace and prosperity. To this end, the US government has implemented several humanitarian projects which aim to alleviate suffering in the country.
However, the US has also adopted a hardline approach to North Korea. It is clear that the US is serious about holding the North Korean leadership to account for its actions. It is an approach that is not without its critics, but one which appears necessary in order to ensure a peaceful future for the people of North Korea.
