North Korea has some of the deadliest missile technology in the world, capable of striking major cities around the globe. Leveraging a variety of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), North Korea has the ability to target nearly any urban center. Its 2006 Taepodong-2 launch demonstrated its capability to reach the US mainland, and numerous reliable sources attest to Pyongyang’s capabilities.
Though there is no definitive list from Pyongyang of cities vulnerable to its offensive, missile trajectories reveal that some urban areas in the US and the Pacific are easily within reach. For example, the majority of US cities within 200 miles of the Canadian border are theoretically within range. These include Seattle, Portland and Spokane, among others. Much of Southern Asia is similarly in danger.
Already, experts anticipate the effects of a strong North Korean ballistic missile attack on major cities across the world in the event of increased military action. “The number of casualties and damage are virtually impossible to predict,” says Robert Hunter, a former US Ambassador to NATO. Depending on the size, effect and sophistication of the weapon, and the accuracy of the delivery, the outcome of an attack on a major city could be catastrophic. He also notes that North Korea’s “ability to accurately hit large cities makes its threat all the more potent and dangerous.”
Interestingly, North Korea might also have the capacity to reach farther than what is initially thought, after revisions to its Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Subsequent upgrades to the ICBM have drastically extended the missile’s range to encompass parts of Denver, Chicago, and potentially even New York City. And, according to the US-Korea Institute, the range of North Korea’s missiles may be far greater than initial calculations indicated.
In addition, North Korea claims to have developed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), which offer greater accuracy and range. With these SLBMs, North Korea apparently has the capability to target major US cities 10 times farther away than any other previous missile. If launched,SLBMs could potentially reach the West Coast of the US, previously thought to be an area of safety. Strangely, however, no North Korean SLBM launch is known to have occurred to date.
It may be difficult to accurately estimate the number of casualties and damages that such an attack would cause, particularly without further access to North Korea’s missile testing records and advancement plans. North Korea’s past military threats and recent weapons test suggest that its missiles are both advanced and dangerous. The threat of a North Korean attack on major cities, both near and far, could be real and should be taken seriously.
Missile Capability
Despite frequent threats from North Korea and its non-compliance with international agreements, Pyongyang has not wavered from asserting its missile capabilities. In 2017, North Korea conducted dozens of missile tests, further fueling its aim to be a regional military force. One missile test in 2017 triggered alarms across the world as the rocket was capable of striking anywhere within the US – even Washington D.C.
Additionally, experts agree that North Korea possesses enhanced missile defense systems in the form of mobile, road-based launchers which can rapidly deploy and fire missiles in the event of an attack. “North Korea has demonstrated a unique ability to move its missiles around,” explained John Schilling, an aerospace engineer and Missile Defense Project analyst. “It could move them to an unknown location, launch, and then move back before it can be intercepted.”
Schilling went on to note that the North Korean military could potentially begin an attack by launching the weapons while they are mobile and in motion. This increases their accuracy and complex targeting system could defeat current US missile defenses. It makes a successful defense far more difficult, as the US military would be unable to keep track of each mobile launcher.
It is quite likely that North Korea has the capacity to possess long range missiles capable of reaching US soil and other remote cities clear across the world. The secretive nature of the country’s military means that accurate assessments of their capacity may prove impossible. However, if the country ever decides to escalate their threat, the US and other global powers should be prepared for extreme damage and loss of life.
Missile Defense
Missile defense has long been an important topic of discussion amongst the international community. Supporters of missile defense insist that this technology could protect against North Korea’s nuclear weapons, while opponents point to the cost and relatively little impact on the North Korean threat. The US’ Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System (GMD) is designed to intercept short, medium, and intermediate-range missiles, and is the country’s primary system against this type of attack.
Despite the power and range of the GMD, most experts agree that it is unlikely to be effective against an aggression from North Korea. The main problem is that North Korea has the capacity to launch their weapons while mobile, making them harder to track and intercept before the launch. This increases their accuracy and complexity of targeting and presents an even more difficult proposition for the US in its efforts to create an effective missile defense system.
It is easy to see that the US’ GMD may be limited in its effectiveness. The GMD system cannot effectively respond to the fast-moving mobile launchers that Pyongyang has developed. Additionally, the GMD cannot precisely track missiles launched from submarines or from space. The system also has a hard time dealing with the sheer number of missiles that North Korea could potentially launch in a single attack.
Despite the US’s efforts to improve its own missile defense capabilities, there is no single-factor answer to defeating North Korea’s missile capability, and there is an even distant chance that any of these defenses will be enough. Only a holistic strategy of deterrence coupled with sanctions, diplomacy and intelligence, stands a chance at thwarting an attack from Pyongyang.
Intervention
International intervention and intervention by the US is the most logical approach to the North Korean missile question. For the US, such a plan may include economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure and military engagement. All are important in terms of deterring North Korea from furthering its weapons development program and launching an attack. The US also favors negotiations with North Korea, yet has also kept military forces nearby in case they are necessary to intervene.
Sanctions have worked in the past in halting North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs. The US, working with the United Nations, has imposed a series of economic sanctions on Pyongyang. These sanctions target North Korea’s energy resources, trade, banking, human and arms trafficking, and the US has been extremely vocal about taking those measures further if North Korea does not stop its weapons development.
Another key element to any intervention strategy is diplomacy. With diplomatic efforts, the US and other nations can work together to address the threat from Pyongyang. Throughout 2019 and 2020, diplomatic representatives of many nations, including the US and China, have taken part in talks with North Korea aimed at convincing the country to cease its development of nuclear weapons.
Finally, military engagement is another tool in the US’ arsenal. Military intervention has been the most controversial and the most aggressive take on the North Korean issue. Military intervention is a last resort, yet has proved effective in the past, with President Bush successfully removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. With a combination of sanctions, pressure, and potential military engagement, the US may be able to resolve the North Korean missile crisis.
International Repercussions
If North Korea were to ever use its missiles against and inflict damage on a major city, the consequences would be massive. Beyond the loss of life, it would also be a huge human rights violation. This would likely trigger an international outcry, and could potentially lead to further military action against Pyongyang.
Additionally, the world would likely see a sharp drop in global markets, as a missile launch from North Korea could cause a ripple of economic instability in other countries. Those countries that are allied with the US, such as Japan and South Korea, may suffer the most due to the shock of such an attack.
Finally, a North Korean missile strike would likely lead to huge questions about the efficacy of US missile defense programs, as well as a general deterioration of the international trust between the US and North Korea. Questions would also be asked about potential retaliation, particularly if the US was determined to target North Korea in some capacity.
North Korea’s missile technology poses a grave threat to thousands of major cities worldwide. Its sophisticated and dangerous technology is capable of reaching virtually any city on Earth and has the capability to cause significant destruction and loss of life. With regular nuclear tests and successive upgrades to its technology, North Korea’s missile capability is a reality that must be addressed, either through intervention or military action.
