Background
The United States is North Korea’s biggest trading partner and has carried out extensive trade with the country over the past two decades.US-North Korea trade has seen significant fluctuations over the years, mainly due to sanctions imposed by the United States government, which sought to limit the amount of trade between the two countries. The United States also imports products from North Korea, mainly in the form of raw materials such as minerals, ores, and petroleum.In recent times, new sanctions have been imposed which make it more difficult for US companies to do business with North Korea.
Trade Data
In 2018, US imports from North Korea totaled $145 million while exports to North Korea were $213 million, resulting in a trade surplus of $68 million. US exports to North Korea are mainly comprised of food and agricultural products, machinery and mechanical appliances, nuclear reactors, boilers and chemicals. US imports from North Korea mainly consist of iron and steel, optical and medical instruments and parts, and electrical machinery.
Perspectives from Experts
The US government has long sought to limit or even completely prevent trade with North Korea in order to curb the country’s nuclear ambitions. David J.Hakim of the Stimson Center believes that the United States should focus more on encouraging North Korea to engage in economic activity with the rest of the world, rather than trying to isolate the country.He argues that such engagement could help improve the economic and political conditions in the region.
At the same time, Paul Tsai of the Council on Foreign Relations cautions that while US-North Korea trade could be beneficial, it could also be used by the North Korean government to facilitate the advancement of its nuclear and missile programs. He urges the US government to continually monitor North Korean trade activities in order to ensure that any products that the US imports from North Korea are not being used to further the regime’s capabilities.
Public Opinion
Public opinion on US-North Korea trade is largely divided. Some argue that it could help open up North Korea to the world, while others worry that it could be used by the regime to maintain itself and acquire resources for its nuclear ambitions. According to a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, only 27 percent of respondents said the US should allow unrestricted trade with North Korea, while 43 percent said it should impose stronger sanctions, and 25 percent said the US should not trade with North Korea at all.
Analysis and Insights
When considering US-North Korea trade, the primary consideration should be what US interests are in the region, given all of the complexities of the situation and the potential consequences of allowing even a limited degree of trade with North Korea. The US government must look at all of the evidence, consider public opinion, and analyze the potential risks and rewards of such trade in order to determine the best course of action.
The US government has made it clear that it will not lift sanctions until concrete steps are taken by the North Korean government to end its nuclear and missile programs. The Trump administration has made it very clear that it wants North Korea to take irreversible steps to denuclearize the country. Even if the US were to lift certain sanctions, it is unlikely that it would open up unrestricted trade with North Korea due to the potential risk of North Korea misusing the resources it gains from such trade.
Economic Impact
The impact of US-North Korean trade on the North Korean economy is a highly contested topic. Economist Park Cacophony argues that the US’s major export partners, China and Russia, have far outstripped any US exports to North Korea. Therefore, US-North Korean trade has only had a limited impact on North Korea’s economic development.
On the other hand, Darcy Dahl of the Columbia University Global Center acknowledges that US-North Korean trade has had a positive impact on the North Korean economy, in that the sanctions imposed by the US have been weakened due to trade between the two countries. He also believes that trade between the two countries could help to accelerate the process of economic reforms in North Korea.
Geopolitical Impact
US-North Korea trade has tremendous implications for the geopolitical relations between the countries. Marc Fleurkhof, Senior Fellow at the Harvard Asia Center, argues that US-North Korea trade could help to further the process of diplomatic normalization between the two countries. Fleurkhof also argues that such a move would be beneficial for the entire region, as it could lead to greater ties and closer ties between the US and North Korea and make it easier for the US to gain crucial intelligence on North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.
At the same time, John Sullivan, US Ambassador to the United Nations, cautions that US trade with North Korea could be used by the North Korean regime to strengthen its military power and destabilize the region.He urges the US to be cautious and monitor closely any trade activity between the two countries.
WTO Accession
In August 2019, North Korea applied to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). The US and other members of the WTO are now discussing North Korea’s potential accession to the organization. former US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott believes that North Korea’s accession to the WTO could be a major step forward in the diplomatic process between the US and North Korea and could pave the way for greater economic cooperation between the countries.
John Seong, Korean Heritage Foundation Director, disagrees, stating that North Korea’s accession to the WTO could lead to the militarization of the Korean Peninsula and could have a negative impact on regional security. He argues that it is important that any US trade activities with North Korea be closely monitored and restrictions remain in place that prevent North Korea from taking advantage of WTO accession.
United Nations Sanctions
The United Nations has imposed a wide range of economic sanctions on North Korea in order to discourage the country from pursuing its nuclear program. These sanctions have had a significant impact on the country’s economy, as it has become increasingly difficult for North Korean companies to access the international market.
Chung-in Moon, Special Advisor to the South Korean President, believes that the UN sanctions are necessary in order to keep North Korea from continuing its nuclear program, but emphasizes that the sanctions should not be viewed as a tool to completely isolate North Korea. He argues that a more balanced approach is needed, one that encourages North Korean engagement with the international community while still prohibiting the country from carrying out its nuclear program.
Conclusion of US-North Korean Trade
Trade between the US and North Korea is a complicated issue that has far-reaching implications, both economically and geopolitically. US policy makers must take into consideration the potential benefits and risks of trade between the two countries, given the complexity of the situation. US-North Korea trade could potentially open up the country to the world and help facilitate economic reforms, but it could also be used by the North Korean regime to maintain itself and to further its nuclear ambitions. The US government must tread carefully in its interactions with North Korea and maintain a balanced approach in order to ensure that all US interests are met.
