Current Tensions with North Korea
The chances of war with North Korea are currently higher than they have been in decades. North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs, combined with its unpredictable leader Kim Jong Un, make the country a worrying regional and global security risk. Attempts to negotiate a denuclearization agreement with the regime have been unsuccessful thus far and have resulted in an heightened atmosphere of suspicion and even hostility between the US and North Korea.
Recent events indicate that tensions have been increasing over the past few months. In the summer of 2019, the United Nations Security Council approved a resolution condemning North Korea’s test-firing of ballistic missiles, saying it was in violation of UN resolutions. This sent a powerful message to the world about the rising tensions between North Korea and the United States.
This heightened tension has also been coupled with a number of bellicose statements from the regime. For instance, earlier in 2019, North Korea announced it would restart the production of weapons-grade plutonium and uranium, a move that is viewed by many analysts as a sign of North Korea’s desire to increase its nuclear capabilities. Kim Jong Un’s rhetoric has also been notably aggressive, as when he stated in April of this year, “If the U.S. provokes us, it will not escape our merciless military counterattack”.
Experts’ Perspectives
Experts in international relations and security have a range of views on the possibility of war with North Korea. Some, such as American nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis, argue that the regime is conditioned to respond with force if it feels threatened. He believes the likelihood of war is increasing as the US ramps up its military presence in the region and enforces sanctions on North Korea. He says, “Worried about a possible war? Get worried. A war with North Korea is entirely possible in the very near term”.
However, other experts take a more measured approach. Anthony Ruggiero, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says “I don’t think war is likely or imminent, but it is a real risk”. He believes that President Trump is doing the right thing by taking a harder stance against North Korea, but recognizes that this will inevitably increase tensions in the region.
Implications
The potential implications of war with North Korea are vast and sobering. It is almost certain that such a conflict would cause immeasurable destruction on the Korean peninsula and could result in a large-scale loss of human life. According to the US Department of Defense, even a limited conventional war on the Korean peninsula could result in 300,000 casualties in its first few days, with that number rising with time.
Any conflict with North Korea is also likely to have global consequences. The regime’s nuclear capability is a major point of concern in the international community, and experts worry that the possession of nuclear weapons could lead to an unpredictable worldwide conflict.
What Can Be Done?
The best solution to the North Korean problem is still a negotiated agreement. The United Nations, China, South Korea, and the United States are all committed to the “complete, verifiable and irreversible” denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. But this is no easy feat, with deep-rooted mistrust between the US and North Korea, making negotiations a tricky business.
The Trump administration have previously sought to impose an economic embargo on North Korea, but this has been met with resistance from Russia and China. Without the full participation of all these players, it is difficult to imagine an effective denuclearization process. Nevertheless, the US is continuing to push for concerted action from the international community, and has even opened up the possibility of establishing diplomatic relations with the regime in the future.
Evaluating the Risks
The security risks associated with a conflict with North Korea are undeniable. Last year, the Pentagon released a report that warned that a war with North Korea could result in “significant casualties in South Korea, Japan, and potentially the United States”. Despite this, it is equally undeniable that North Korea’s actions pose an international security threat, and the regime must be held to a higher standard.
It is important to focus on constructive diplomacy when evaluating the threat posed by North Korea. The US should continue to pursue a diplomatic solution that respects North Korea’s sovereignty while also sending a strong message to the regime that any provocative behaviors will be met with consequences.
Risk of Confrontation
At the same time, it is essential for the international community to be aware of the risk of confrontation. The US (along with other nations) should have military contingency plans in place in the event of a conflict with the North Korean regime, and should make sure their allies in the region are adequately prepared for this eventuality.
Analysts are also warning that US-North Korea relations could be further strained by external events. For example, the resumption of military exercises between the US and South Korea could raise tensions, as could North Korea’s refusal to cooperate with denuclearization efforts. It is also unlikely that the United States will be willing to accept any of North Korea’s demands.
Economic Influence
The US could also use economic means to pressure North Korea. This could include stricter international sanctions, diplomatic isolation, or a more robust effort to constrict North Korea’s critical supply chains. This could prove effective, as North Korea’s economy is largely dependent on external assistance.
Experts also caution that sanctions and embargoes could backfire if not executed carefully. The US needs to be careful not to push North Korea too hard, as this could lead to the regime becoming more aggressive and cut off from the international community.
Deterring North Korea
Ultimately, preventing an armed conflict with North Korea is the best solution for all involved. The US and its allies need to have contingency plans in place in case the situation deteriorates, but it is also important to remember that diplomacy must remain the primary means of dealing with the Kim Jong Un regime.
The US and other actors in the region must continue to look for diplomatic solutions to denuclearization, while also making it clear that any provocative actions from North Korea will be met with forceful consequences. This combination of diplomacy and deterrence is the best way to prevent a war with North Korea.
