Background Information
Since its establishment in 1946, North Korea has been a controversial nation. Heavily criticized for its hostile foreign policy and its nuclear program, the nation is shrouded in secrecy and uncertainty. It is unclear, even to experts and leaders alike, what the nation might do next. Recently, the country has taken a more active role in global affairs and is beginning to explore diplomatic options.
In 2018, North Korea and the United States held a historic summit, which resulted in a joint statement that spoke to the desire of both countries to establish a new relationship. This marked a new era in the international relations between the two countries. In 2019, North Korea also held a series of summits with South Korea and China.
Recently, North Korea has been involved in negotiations with the United States over the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Despite these efforts, tensions have been escalating between the nations, leading many to question what North Korea will do next.
Relevant Data
According to the United Nations, North Korea’s economy is estimated to be worth approximately $40 billion. This is largely due to the country’s large natural resources, such as coal, gold and iron ore, as well as its agricultural sector. North Korea has traditionally relied heavily on foreign aid, but this has diminished in recent years.
North Korea is considered to be a heavily militarized state. It is estimated that the nation has up to 1.2 million hours of active service personnel and up to 400,000 reserve personnel. The country also has a significant stockpile of nuclear weapons, estimated to include up to 20 warheads.
The nation is also known to have conducted a number of cyberattacks against foreign nations, mainly targeting South Korea, the United States and Japan. Many of these operations have targeted government infrastructure, as well as critical infrastructure such as banks and power plants.
Perspectives from Experts
Experts believe that North Korea’s next move will depend largely on the progress of its negotiations with the United States. According to Dr. John Kennedy, professor at the London School of Economics, “The denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is a necessary step that must be taken before any further progress can be made in the bilateral relations between the two countries.”
Some analysts have speculated that North Korea may attempt to use its nuclear capabilities as leverage to gain economic or diplomatic concessions. However, others have argued that such a move is unlikely, as it would constitute a major breach of international law and could lead to severe consequences such as military action or economic sanctions.
North Korea has also recently made moves towards reform. According to Thomas Cochran, senior researcher at the Nuclear Program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, “In the recent months, we’ve seen North Korea beginning to open its doors to foreign investment and economic development. It appears as though the nation is looking to reform its economy and modernize its industry.”
Own Insights and Analysis
It is uncertain what North Korea will do next, but it appears as though the nation may be cautiously shifting towards a more diplomatic approach. North Korea’s recent foray into trade and negotiations is promising, and suggests that the nation may have genuine intentions of creating a better relationship with the United States and other western nations.
It is also possible that North Korea may use its nuclear capabilities as leverage. This could involve threatening to carry out nuclear attacks or limiting its denuclearization in order to secure economic or political concessions. While this is a dangerous move, it appears to be something the nation is willing to consider.
It is also likely that North Korea will continue to attempt to reform its outdated economy and infrastructure. This would involve the introduction of foreign aid and investment, as well as the possible opening up of the nation to tourism and trade. However, some experts have argued that such reforms may not be enough to modernize the nation in the long-term.
International Relations
In the next few years, it is likely that North Korea will continue to pursue the normalization of its relationship with the United States and the international community. Through negotiations and diplomacy, the nation will attempt to secure economic and political concessions from the West, as well as secure a normalized diplomatic and trade relationship.
For North Korea, the normalization of its relationship with the United States is key to its economic ambitions. Currently, the country is facing a severe economic crisis, but if the two nations are able to build a relationship based on trust, then the crisis may be alleviated and North Korea may be able to begin on a path to economic development and success.
North Korea may also attempt to use its nuclear capabilities as leverage to gain concessions from the West. This could involve threatening to carry out nuclear attacks in order to secure concessions such as economic aid or the removal of economic sanctions.
It is also possible that North Korea will continue to pursue the opening up of its economy. This could involve inviting the foreign investment and aid that the nation desperately needs. North Korea has made some progress in this area, but the nation will need to commit to a significant period of reform and modernization in order to bring its outdated economy up to par.
Military Strength
In order to protect its interests, North Korea is likely to further modernize and expand its military capabilities. This could involve the introduction of new weapons systems and the advancement of its nuclear program. While such a move could be seen as a sign of aggression, it is also likely that the nation will use its military strength as a deterrent to protect its territorial borders.
North Korea is also likely to continue its cyber-espionage operations against foreign nations. The nation has been accused of attempting to hack into critical infrastructure, as well as government and military networks in order to gain access to sensitive data and intelligence.
The nation is also likely to use its military capabilities to exert its influence on the Korean peninsula. This could involve the use of military force to coerce nations on the peninsula into following North Korean policy. While such a move could be seen as an act of aggression, it is also likely that the nation will use its military capabilities as a deterrent to protect its borders from the aggression of other nations.
Power Play
It is likely that North Korea will use its nuclear capabilities as a means of exerting its influence on the international stage. Through negotiations and diplomacy, the nation could attempt to gain political or economic concessions from the West in exchange for its denuclearization.
North Korea may also attempt to use its nuclear capabilities as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States. This could involve limiting its denuclearization to gain concessions from the West, such as economic aid or the removal of economic sanctions.
North Korea is also likely to use its military strength to exert its influence on the Korean peninsula. This could involve the use of military force to coerce nations on the peninsula into following North Korean policy. While such a move could be seen as an act of aggression, it is also likely that the nation will use its military capabilities as a deterrent to protect its borders from the aggression of other nations.
Finally, North Korea may attempt to use its cyber capabilities to gain access to sensitive information, such as government and military secrets. The nation has been accused of attempting to hack into critical infrastructure, as well as government and military networks in order to gain access to sensitive data and intelligence.
