The Current Situation
The international relations between North Korea and the rest of the world is a difficult and tense one, in part due to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and provocative rhetoric. While both sides have almost always avoided direct military conflict, it is highly notable that relations between North Korea and the United States have been especially strained throughout the 21st century. As tensions heighten and fears of war increase, there are many people wondering what would happen in the event of a war between North Korea and the United States.
Dr. Michael O’Hanlon, Director of Research at the Brookings Institution, has stated that such a war with North Korea would likely be “even more tragic and destructive” than the Korean War in the 1950s. In his view, any conventional war with North Korean forces would result in many casualties. North Korea has a massive standing army, with over 1.2 million active members of the military. This is one of the largest military forces in the world, and would be a formidable foe if the country invades. However, North Korea also involves ballistic missiles, which may be pointed at South Korea, Japan, and even the United States mainland.
Nuclear Weapons
A part of the reason why the tensions between North Korea and the United States have been so strained is because of the former’s nuclear weapons program. North Korea claims to have developed an ICBM-class nuclear missile that can reach US mainland soil. This missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, has raised fears of a nuclear attack against the US. Many experts have warned that a war between North Korea and the United States could lead to a nuclear conflict as North Korea may attempt to deploy its nuclear arsenal.
In response, the United States has deployed an array of defense measures aiming to shoot down any incoming missiles. These defense measures have been bolstered by other countries, especially those in the region, and have been made more effective in the event of a nuclear attack from North Korea. As such, it is unlikely that North Korea would be able to successfully deliver a nuclear warhead to the US mainland in the event of a war.
War on the Ground
Although a nuclear war is unlikely, there is still the risk of a conventional war. Many experts have highlighted that North Korea is likely to focus their defenses on the inter-Korean border in the event of a war. North Korea has used a variety of provocative tactics to try and force its southern neighbor into surrendering, such as the use of hovercrafts, propaganda leaflets, and infiltrations of the South Korean Air Force and Navy. This has made the South Korean government increasingly nervous and has further strained relations between the two states.
If North Korea begins an invasion of South Korea, then the United States will be drawn into the conflict. US forces in the region, such as the 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea and the 7,000 in Japan, are unlikely to sit in wait and the US Navy has a history of intervening in regional disputes, most notably with the Gulf War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Responses from the International Community
The international community has been watching the tense situation between North Korea and the United States closely. The United Nations Security Council has condemned North Korea’s recent military provocations and has imposed a number of economic sanctions in an effort to persuade the country to back down from its aggressive stance. China, North Korea’s strongest ally, has also expressed its disapproval and has urged North Korea to halt its nuclear weapons program.
Despite all these efforts, it is still unclear if the tensions between North Korea and the United States will de-escalate or if a war is inevitable. However, as many experts have highlighted, the consequences of a war between North Korea and the United States would be disastrous not only for the two countries, but for the whole world.
Effect on the Korean People
In such an eventuality, the South Korean people would bear the brunt of the destruction from the conflict. South Korea has invested billions of dollars into the defense of its nation and has the 12th largest military budget in the world. South Korea is known for its advanced military technology and its training and coordination, allowing it to have the upper hand over a conventional North Korean military, although the country may still suffer extensive losses.
Beyond this, as most of the population is concentrated in the densely populated cities in the south of the country, such as Seoul, any conflict would be disastrous for the people in these areas. It is estimated that millions of lives could be lost in the event of a war with North Korea.
Diplomatic Solutions
Despite the immense destruction that could be caused, most experts agree that a diplomatic solution to the crisis is still very possible. The US and North Korea have both expressed their willingness to engage in negotiations and to find a peaceful solution to the current situation. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that he is open to talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, although there has been little progress thus far.
International efforts have been made to facilitate such talks, such as the Singapore Summit in 2018 between Trump and Kim. Unfortunately, these talks have failed to materialize any agreement and tensions between the two sides have remained high. This has caused many experts to fear the possibility of a war between the two countries.
Civilian Casualties
In the event of a war, it is likely that many civilians would suffer major loss of life. North Korea is a largely rural country and many of its people rely on agriculture for their livelihood. As such, any war with nuclear weapons or even conventional weapons would have a severe impact on the civilian population, as their livelihoods and food supply would be destroyed. In addition, the North Korean government is known for its oppressive attitude towards the population, and in the event of a war, the people would almost certainly be among the primary targets of North Korean forces.
Similarly, any war between North Korea and the United States could lead to a humanitarian disaster, as thousands of refugees would be forced to flee their homes in the event of conflict. In addition, the US military is known for its heavy use of airpower, which could lead to a massive number of civilian casualties. Any war between North Korea and the United States would be devastating to both countries, as well as the region.
Techological Impact
In addition to the human cost of a conflict, there is also the potential damage to infrastructure and technology. North Korea is an isolated, economically undeveloped country, and its infrastructure is largely outdated and inadequate. In the event of a war with the United States, much of this infrastructure would be destroyed, with negative consequences for the economy and the lives of the people. In addition, the US military has been investing heavily in cutting-edge technology for its war efforts, such as precision-guided weapons and drones. This technology is highly effective and could have serious consequences for North Korea’s forces if used in a war.
In addition, the economic damage from a war would be immense as many countries rely on North Korea for lucrative trade opportunities. China and South Korea are two of the largest trading partners of North Korea and any conflict with the US could have serious consequences for the economies of both countries.
Regional Conflict
Finally, if North Korea and the US were to go to war, there is the chance that it could ignite a wider conflict in the region, as other countries could take sides and choose to intervene in the conflict. This could lead to a cycle of violence that would be difficult to contain, with many countries being forced to take a side or risk being dragged into the conflict. In addition, the already fragile global order could be tipped in favor of dictatorships or the spread of extremist ideologies, which could have far-reaching global consequences and create new international tensions.
Ultimately, a war between North Korea and the US is something that both sides would like to avoid, but there is still the chance that tensions between the two countries will escalate and lead to conflict. The consequences of such a war would be immense for both countries, as well as for the region and the world. As such, resolving the current crisis is essential for the future of international relations and global stability.
