Background Information
North Korea is an isolated country under a dictatorial regime, which became a nuclear power in 2006 and possesses an extensive ballistic missile arsenal. Its nuclear and missile programs provoke regional insecurity, threaten peace and security across the world, as well as raise the potential for armed conflict on the Korean peninsula. In recent years, North Korea has continued to test ballistic missiles and conduct other provocations, prompting international condemnation. One of the most recent missile launches, which has been the focus of much attention, occurred on April 15, 2017.
Relevant Data
The missile fired on April 15, 2017, was believed to be an intermediate-range missile, and is referred to as the KN-17, or Hwasong-12. While the launch was unsuccessfully, North Korea has since test-launched this ballistic missile successfully twice, both times in August of 2017. The KN-17 is believed to be capable of reaching the US territory of Guam, as it has a maximum range of approximately 4,500 kilometers.
Perspectives from Experts
Experts believe that North Korea’s latest missile launches are an indication of their advancements in missile technology. Su Jeong Lee and William B. Brown, experts in Asia-Pacific security, wrote an article in the journal Nonproliferation Review in 2017, in which they argued that the latest missile tests had demonstrated “advances in North Korea’s ability to develop long-range missiles”, and that these advancements could be attributed to “the country’s ability to continually upgrade and develop its existing foundation of missile and nuclear technology”.
Another expert, Vipin Narang, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, argued that the KN-17 is a new technology for North Korea, and marks a major advancement for the country as its range is estimated to be further than any other missile previously tested by North Korea. Narang further argued that: “North Korea’s latest tests suggest that it isclosely advancing its ability to develop new technologies, such as solid fuel-based missiles and increasingly accurate navigation systems, allowing for better maneuvering around enemy defenses and increased reliability.”
Insight and Analysis
The recent missile launches by North Korea suggest an alarming increase in the countries capability to develop new missile technologies, and further threaten peace and stability beyond the Korean peninsula. While the missile responsible for the April 15, 2017 launch, failed to reach its target, the two subsequent successful tests of this weapon indicate that North Korea is continuing to make advances in missile technology faster than previously thought.
It is also likely that North Korea has gained knowledge and skills from other countries, mainly Iran and Pakistan. It is likely that North Korea has been able to exploit existing trade routes to obtain help and support from other countries in the development of their nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. As long as North Korea continues to receive support from other countries, the potential for new advancements in missile technology is great, and further tests from North Korea are expected.
Economic Impact
North Korea’s missile launches have had a significant economic impact across the world, as countries have reacted with sanctions and other retaliatory measures. United Nations Security Council resolutions have imposed increasingly harsh sanctions on North Korea, which have been successful in reducing North Korean exports, resulting in a sharp decline in its economy. Further, the sanctions have caused a significant reduction in the countries access to foreign currency and credit and severely hampered North Korea’s access to international trade markets.
The sanctions have significantly impacted North Korea’s energy imports, as these imports have plummeted due to the country’s reduced access to foreign currency. For example, the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report noted that total energy imports into North Korea fell by 15 percent in the second half of 2017. As a result of these sanctions, North Korea’s economy has been hit hard, causing a significant negative ripple effect on the overall economic development of the country.
Political Impact
The recent missile launches by North Korea have also impacted the political landscape of the region, leading to increased tension between North Korea and its neighbors as well as other countries in the international community. In particular, North Korea’s missile tests have led to increased military exercises between South Korea, Japan and the United States, as well as increased diplomatic discussions between the countries.
South Korea, for example, has held joint military exercises with the United States in the Sea of Japan in order to deter North Korea from further missile launches and provocations. The joint exercises have become increasingly stronger, as the South Korean government has stated that these exercises are a “clear message” of willingness to respond “strongly” to further provocations from North Korea. Similarly, the United States has held a series of negotiations with North Korea in order to de-escalate the tensions, though no agreement has been reached so far.
International Response
The international community has responded to the missile launches with varying degrees of criticism and condemnation. While some countries, such as China and Russia, have expressed their opposition to the missile tests, they have also expressed their desire for the US and South Korea to refrain from provocative military exercises in the area.
In addition, while the United Nations has endorsed several resolutions imposing sanctions on North Korea, these sanctions have not been able to completely stop the country from conducting further missile tests. The UN Security Council resolutions have succeeded in limiting North Korea’s access to foreign currency and reducing its exports, which have had an adverse economic effect on the nation. However, there has not been a resolution that could stop North Korea from further expansion of its nuclear program.
Sanctions and Diplomacy
Despite the numerous UN sanctions and international efforts to contain North Korea’s nuclear program, the country’s missile launches continue. This has resulted in a growing acceptance of the fact that sanctions and diplomatic efforts may not be enough to stop North Korea from further missile tests.
For this reason, there has been a growing debate among international experts about the need for more robust diplomatic and military options to counter North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. While some experts argue for a political and diplomatic solution, others suggest that military action may be necessary in order to curb North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.
However, there is also a great risk in any potential military action, as North Korea could respond by launching more missiles as well as other weapons of mass destruction. This could lead to a devastating war on the Korean peninsula, not to mention the potential global implications of such a conflict.
Risk of Conflict
It is clear that North Korea’s missile tests have brought the prospect of a devastating war on the Korean peninsula one step closer. The risk of conflict has been heightened by US President Donald Trump’s promise to “totally destroy” North Korea if they continue with their missile tests.
It is now possible that North Korea could launch a pre-emptive strike against the United States or its allies, or that the US and its allies could launch a pre-emptive strike against North Korea. In either case, there would undoubtedly be devastating consequences for both sides, within the region and beyond. For this reason, the international community must act now to prevent any further escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula.
Peace Negotiations
There is hope that peace negotiations and a diplomatic solution may be possible. In recent weeks, diplomacy between the United States and North Korea has been on the rise with both sides expressing a willingness to enter talks. There have also been numerous reports that North Korea may be willing to freeze its nuclear activities and dismantle its missile program in return for economic aid and security guarantees.
However, it remains to be seen how successful such negotiations could be and whether or not North Korea would take any positive steps towards peace. Ultimately, it is up to the international community to ensure that diplomatic negotiations are meaningful and result in tangible progress.
