Background
North Korea has been developing its missile program for decades and routinely launches test missiles. In particular, North Korea has built a number of medium to long-range ballistic missiles, some of which have been used to threaten its neighbors. Under the leadership of Kim Jong Un, North Korea has rapidly modernized its military capabilities and aggressively pursued its missile program.
The latest missile launched by North Korea was the Hwasong-15, a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). This missile was launched from Sain Ni, near the nation’s capital of Pyongyang, on November 29th, 2017. This launch marked the first time North Korea had ever tested an ICBM, and the missile flew higher and longer than any previous North Korean missile launch.
Technical Specifications
The Hwasong-15 is estimated to have a range capable of reaching anywhere within the continental United States (CONUS). It is powered by a two-stage liquid fuel engine, the similarities of which are shared with the Hwasong-14 ICBM. The first stage is powered by a single-chamber, liquid-fueled engine while the second stage is powered by a larger, two-chamber engine.
The missile is 105 feet long and has a diameter of 5.5 feet. It is estimated to weigh up to 80 tons, with a payload of up to 1,000 kilograms. This is significantly more than the Hwasong-14, which weighed approximately 50 tons.
Global Reactions
The launch of the Hwasong-15 was met with strong condemnation from the international community, with the UN Security Council unanimously condemning the launch. This was the first launch since Kim Jong Un declared that North Korea had achieved full nuclear capability.
The United States responded to the launch by re-designating North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism while imposing additional sanctions, including a travel ban and restrictions on trade. Other countries, such as South Korea and Japan, also responded by increasing their own sanctions and military posture.
Analysis and Impacts
The launch of the Hwasong-15 is a significant step in North Korea’s ballistic missile program, as it is the first missile capable of reaching the continental United States. While the missile has not been tested with a dummy warhead, experts believe that it is capable of carrying a nuclear payload.
Analysts believe that the launch of the Hwasong-15 has shifted the balance of power in the region, as the threat posed by the missile will likely compel South Korea and Japan to increase their reliance on the United States for protection. In addition, the increased sanctions will likely further isolate North Korea from the international community and deepen their economic struggles.
Impact on Non-Proliferation Efforts
The launch of the Hwasong-15 has had a profound impact on global efforts to contain North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. While North Korea has proclaimed that it seeks only to develop nuclear weapons for self-defense, the UN Security Council has been unanimous in condemning their behavior and encouraging diplomacy with Pyongyang.
Moreover, the launch of the Hwasong-15 has strayed from countries like the US, South Korea and Japan to continue working towards non-proliferation despite the difficulties. Despite the setbacks, South Korea and Japan have continued to pursue diplomatic solutions to the crisis, holding a number of talks with North Korea in an effort to bring them back to the negotiating table.
The Role of China
China has played a key role in addressing the crisis in North Korea. China is North Korea’s closest ally, and provides the country with much of its fuel and food. As such, China has considerable influence over North Korea and has a vested interest in preventing its nuclear ambitions from escalating further.
China was a key player in the UN Security Council’s condemnation of the Hwasong-15 launch, and has adhered to its sanctions against North Korea. While China has had difficulty convincing North Korea to return to the negotiating table, it has worked with Russia to push for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.
The Future of North Korea’s Nuclear Program
It is uncertain what the future of North Korea’s nuclear program will be. The launch of the Hwasong-15 marks a significant escalation in their capabilities, and it is unlikely that this will be the last missile they launch. North Korea has continued to pursue its nuclear ambitions despite international opposition, and there is currently no indication that this will change in the near future.
Despite the difficulties, the international community remains committed to finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis. The United States, South Korea, and Japan continue to work towards a peaceful resolution, and China and Russia continue to exert their influence over North Korea in an effort to de-escalate the situation.
International Reactions
In the aftermath of the Hwasong-15 launch, international leaders were quick to condemn the action. In particular, the launch was met with harsh criticism from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. All three countries expressed their staunch opposition to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and called on North Korea to return to the negotiating table.
On the other side of the spectrum, China and Russia have responded more cautiously. China has played a mediating role, pushing for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis while calling on North Korea to refrain from further provocations. Russia, on the other hand, has largely ignored the issue and has yet to take a firm stance on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
Economic Implications
The launch of the Hwasong-15 will have vast economic implications for North Korea and the region as a whole. The increased sanctions placed upon North Korea, in response to the launch, are likely to exacerbate the country’s already dire economic situation, with some estimates projecting a 10% drop in North Korea’s GDP.
In addition, South Korea and Japan, who have been among the most heavily sanctioned in response to the launch, are likely to suffer economically as well. As South Korea and Japan are two of the largest economies in the region, this could have a domino effect on the entire region.
Regional Relations and Tensions
The launch of the Hwasong-15 has further exacerbated tensions between North Korea and its regional rivals. South Korea and Japan, both of whom have been threatened by North Korea’s missile launches, have responded by increasing their military presence and tightening their sanctions against North Korea.
Moreover, the United States has also upped its presence in the region. President Trump has sent aircraft carriers, bombers, and additional troops to the region in an effort to deter North Korea from further provocations. However, the increased American presence has only furthered heightened tensions in the region.
