Overview
North Korea leader Kim Jong Un has not been seen in public since April 11, 2020, and speculation is rising on his whereabouts. What began as a series of conflicting reports has now evolved into a more serious puzzle, and although he is thought to be living in North Korean exile, his exact location is yet to be identified. In this article, we’ll look at what we know so far and why this is potentially a cause for concern.
Background
Kim Jong Un is the second leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and assumed power in 2011 following the death of his father Kim Jong Il. His rule has been characterized by a relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons and, although he has made attempts at establishing peace talks, his belligerence towards South Korea and the US has been a constant source of tension in the region.
The disappearance of Kim Jong Un from public view began in mid-April 2020, when it was reported that he had been admitted to a hospital due to a “serious bout of health problems”. As his condition deteriorated, rumors began to spread and doubts were raised about the veracity of the reports. Since then, there has been little to no confirmation of Kim Jong Un’s whereabouts.
Speculation
Speculation has been rife in both the media and political circles as to Kim Jong Un’s location and condition. Depending on which source you listen to, he is either dead, dying, in a coma, in exile, or has faked his death to escape a coup. Regardless, there is definite cause for concern if Kim Jong Un has in fact vacated his post and left the country, as this could pose an existential threat to the stability of the DPRK and the region.
Commentators have pointed out that Kim Jong Un’s absence is perhaps an attempt to distract from the impact of US sanctions, or an attempt to consolidate his power by faking his death. Others have posited that he may still be in North Korea but is under a type of “house arrest” as a result of a power struggle between his supporters and detractors. All these theories, however, remain speculation and it may be a while before we find out exactly what has happened.
Expert Analysis
Experts are split on what this all means for the future of North Korea. Some believe that if Kim Jong Un is in fact no longer in power, it may not be the disaster it is portrayed to be. They argue that the privileged class, comprised of the remnants of Kim’s inner circle and their successors, will remain loyal to the late leader’s vision of a “Hermit Kingdom”, and that a successor, such as Kim’s sister Kim Yo-Jong, could strive to maintain the existing system while making progress towards international diplomatic ties.
Others argue that the DPRK could potentially dissolve without Kim Jong Un’s leadership, especially in light of the recent famine, rising inequality and decreased living standards that have impacted the country. They believe that regime collapse is imminent, and that despite any potential perks, the fall of the Kim dynasty could have a devastating impact on the region and beyond.
Implications
The implications of Kim Jong Un’s disappearance are vast and have been met with much anxiety from the international community. Although North Korea has not specific nuclear capabilities that can be deployed offensively, it has stockpiled enough uranium to build around 10 to 15 nuclear bombs. If the power dynamic in Pyongyang shifts and the regime collapses, the world could be faced with a nuclear arms race involving not just North Korea but other countries in the region.
This could potentially push countries such as South Korea and Japan away from their long-standing commitment to peaceful resolution and toward a more military centric posture in order to defend their security interests. In addition, US allies in the region could be drawn into a conflict that could escalate to the level of a major conflict with China, further destabilizing the entire region.
Economic Impact
The economic implications of a collapse of the regime in North Korea would also be far-reaching. The increased global political volatility would create market turbulence, and the region as a whole would be impacted. In addition, the sudden loss of North Korea’s dismal yet consistent trade would mean a significant economic shock to China, South Korea, Japan, and the other countries that traditionally conduct business with the Hermit Kingdom.
The collapse of the regime could also result in both an increase in food insecurity, as North Koreans have long relied on state subsidies to survive, as well as a massive refugee crisis, with North Koreans seeking to escape the country and its potential for violence. This could also lead to a potential security and diplomatic crisis, as the US and other countries struggle to address the increased influx of refugees seeking asylum.
Possible Solutions
There have been calls from many experts to pursue a diplomatic solution should the uncertainty surrounding Kim Jong Un’s whereabouts persist. South Korea and China, in particular, have a vested interest in seeing a peaceful and stable resolution to the situation, and Japan has also expressed a desire to engage with North Korea and seek a diplomatic solution.
Unfortunately, such talk of diplomacy has been met with skepticism in some quarters, due to the lack of trust and existing disagreements between the two sides. As such, it remains to be seen whether the two sides will be able to come to an agreement, or if the situation will deteriorate further.
International Reactions
The wider international response has been largely one of caution, with most governments unsurprised at the current state of affairs in North Korea. Many believe that it is difficult to gauge the true intentions of the DPRK and therefore are reluctant to react too strongly. The US government in particular has been deliberately measured in its response and has called for calm and restraint among allies, although it has indicated that it will monitor the situation closely and will take action should the situation become untenable.
The United Nations has also had a role to play, and has urged North Korea to comply with international law and respect its neighbors. The EU has also issued a statement calling for restraint from all parties, and has promised it will do whatever it can to contribute to peace in the region.
Media Narrative
The media narrative surrounding Kim Jong Un’s whereabouts has been largely dominated by conjecture. This has largely been driven by the lack of hard facts, as well as by the inherent human interest in a potential power struggle in a nuclear-capable country. Conspiracies, rumors and speculation have abounded, although the media has generally remained cautious and balanced in its reporting of events.
In terms of broader implications, the media has done its best to highlight the potential consequences of a North Korean collapse or a change in power dynamics within the country. It has warned of the dangers of unrest and the potential impact such a crisis could have on the region and beyond. It has also sought to educate readers about the potential diplomatic solutions and the importance of seeking a peaceful resolution.
Analysis
Given the secretive nature of the North Korean regime and the limited information available, it is difficult to make an accurate assessment of the situation. It is clear, however, that Kim Jong Un’s whereabouts remain a mystery, and that the impact of his potential absence is profound and far reaching. How the international community will react in the coming weeks and months remains to be seen, but it is certain that the outcome of this situation will have huge implications for the region and beyond.
