Background Information
North Korea is a highly isolated, militarily powerful and unpredictable nation. It has stood in direct conflict with the United States for decades, with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un threatening to unleash “fire and fury” against the country. This has sparked great concern around the world, especially with the United States. Consequently, the question of “Where Would North Korea Bomb First” is highly relevant.
For several years now, North Korea is continuously developing its ballistic missile program and nuclear weapons. The regime is consistently improving its long-range delivery system capabilities, which further demonstrates its clear intent to attack foreign nations. Additionally, North Korea is known to have ties with several countries and international organizations around the world. All of these factors make it hard to determine which state would be the regime’s first target.
Relevant Data
In April 2017, North Korea launched a mid-axel ballistic missile that landed in waters off the east coast of Japan. This launch caused a wave of apprehension from many countries, as it was thought to be a sign of impending attack. Later that month, North Korea launched another mid-axel ballistic missile that reportedly had a range of about 900 miles and could reach the US overseas territory of Guam.
The situation escalated even further in October 2017, when North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile with the capability of reaching the mainland United States. In November 2017, it tested its most powerful missile yet, capable of reaching any location within the US. Unfortunately, there has been no confirmed reports on North Korea’s intended target, although many believe it could be Japan, South Korea, the US or China.
Expert Perspectives
According to US military officials, North Korea is likely to attack South Korea first, as the country boasts a weak defensive system and is within relatively easy reach. Additionally, South Korea has been an irritant to North Korea due to its presence in the SEATO (South East Asian Treaty Organization) and United Nations. South Korea serves as the main US military outpost in Asia, making it a prime target in the event of a war.
However, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld believes that North Korea may choose to attack Japan first, as the two countries have had a long history of hostilities. North Korea has also threatened to “sink” the country using nuclear weapons, adding to the prevailing sentiment that Japan could be the regime’s first target. Additionally, Japan is a strong US ally, so attacking it would be a strategic move that would send a clear message to the US.
Analysis and Insight
It is very difficult to ascertain North Korea’s first target due to the secretive nature of the regime and the unpredictable nature of Kim Jong Un. Moreover, North Korea’s motives remain unclear, with the regime seemingly shifting from bellicose rhetoric to diplomatic gestures on a whim.
However, it is likely that Japan, South Korea or the United States are the likely targets. North Korea may well see attacking Japan or South Korea as a means to signal its displeasure with the US, while attacking the US mainland might be used as a warning of what is to come. Therefore, it is important that all nations in the region remain vigilant and be prepared to respond quickly and decisively to any provocation.
Relations between North Korea and the US
For many years, the United States and North Korea have been at odds. North Korea is a pariah to the international community, due to its numerous human rights abuses and refusal to comply with UN sanctions imposed on the country. Consequently, ties between the two countries have been tense and hostile.
In 2017, North Korea sharply escalated its provocations, with the White House condemning the regime for its “dangerous and destabilizing actions”. The regime also issued multiple threats to the US, with Kim Jong Un calling for the destruction of the United States and President Trump threatening to “totally destroy North Korea” if provoked. As a result, North Korea has become increasingly isolated from the international community, further complicating all attempts to resolve the Korean conflict peacefully.
North Korean Defense Capabilities
North Korea boasts an impressive array of military capabilities, which it uses to deter attacks from foreign nations. For example, North Korea currently possesses intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and intermediate-range missiles, which are capable of reaching the United States mainland, as well as cruise missiles that can be fired from coastal regions. Moreover, the military is believed to have stocks of chemical and biological weapons, including sarin gas, anthrax, and mustard gas.
On top of these, North Korea also maintains a large and dedicated navy force. Despite the disparities in size and capability between North Korea and the United States, the North Korean Navy is still capable of posing a major threat to the US. This is largely due to the country’s vast experience in asymmetric warfare tactics, as well as its ideological commitment to resisting foreign powers.
Effects on Regional Stability
Any military action taken by North Korea would have a major effect on the political and economic stability of the region and the world at large. For example, a North Korean attack on Japan or South Korea would almost certainly prompt a US response, which could lead to a regional war. The consequences of this could be devastating, with thousands of lives at risk and entire economies being destabilized.
Moreover, any conflict between the US and North Korea would likely trigger a new wave of global sanctions, impacting countries such as China and Russia that still maintain diplomatic ties with the regime. Consequently, the potential for conflict and chaos in the region is extremely high, with all nations needing to remain alert and prepared to respond swiftly and forcefully.
The Risk of Nuclear Weapons
The use of nuclear weapons by North Korea is a particularly worrying prospect and one that could have devastating global repercussions. In 2013, North Korea conducted its third nuclear test and the regime has since conducted several additional tests. This, combined with reports of the nation’s continued pursuit of a hydrogen bomb, has been a source of great concern to the international community.
If North Korea were to use its nuclear weapons against any target, it is highly likely that this would trigger a full-scale war in the region and beyond. This could have a catastrophic effect on individuals and nations, as the consequences of such an event would be far reaching and long lasting. It is therefore essential that all nations take measures to prevent a nuclear conflict from occurring.
