Since the Korean War ended in 1953, the United States and North Korea have never been on friendly terms. North Korea is an isolated country, ruled by a totalitarian regime, and is well known for its aggressive foreign policy and nuclear program. So the question is, where would North Korea strike in the US, in the unlikely event that it were to launch a military attack?
The most obvious target for North Korea would be the American military presence on the Korean Peninsula. The US maintains a strong military presence in South Korea, including almost 30,000 troops and several Naval aircraft carriers. North Korea has a long-standing policy of hostility towards South Korea and has in the past threatened to attack US forces in the region. However, many experts believe that North Korea would be unlikely to actually follow through on such a threat, due to the immense deaths and destruction such an attack would cause.
North Korea could also target the US mainland. The US has a large military presence around the world, with bases in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. North Korea is believed to have a number of long-range ballistic missiles that could theoretically reach any of these bases, although their effectiveness in such a scenario is highly questionable. US cities like Los Angeles, Seattle and San Diego are also considered potential targets, although any attack on US territory would almost certainly provoke a swift and overwhelming response from the US military.
The US also has a number of military assets in the Pacific Ocean, such as Naval aircraft carriers, that could be targeted by North Korea. However, any such attack would almost certainly require pinpoint accuracy, given the great distance between North Korea and the US. Even then, such an attack could easily be thwarted by US Naval forces in the region.
North Korea may also attempt to use cyberattacks to target the US. North Korea is believed to have a sophisticated cyberespionage network, which it has used in the past to attack other countries. Although these attacks have largely been limited to stealing data, there is a real possibility that North Korea could use a cyberattack to disrupt US government operations or even disable important infrastructure like power plants or communication networks.
In short, while North Korea is certainly capable of attacking the US, it is unclear whether the country will actually choose to do so. Any attack would be met with a swift and overwhelming military response, which would almost certainly spell disaster for North Korea itself. Thus, it is likely that North Korea will continue to focus on less direct forms of aggression, such as cyberattacks and economic sanctions.
Challenges To Us Response
Given the unpredictable nature of North Korea and the US’s primary foreign policy direction that does not involve direct action North Korea, a US response to the North Korean threat could be hindered. For example, if a North Korean cyberspace attack were to occur, the US would have limited immediate options to fight back. Currently, the Pentagon does not have resources or executive authority to launch a countering cyber attack, making any response slow and diplomatic. This could give North Korea enough time to fully exploit the impact of their attack.
In addition, the US and North Korea largely don’t have diplomatic relations – furthers hindering the ability for a response. This lack of relations makes it difficult to signal an end goal, since there is no ‘table’ to negotiate at.
Further, any action taken by the US could risk aggravating North Korea beyond their current level and prompt their government to initiate a larger attack on US interests. This could trigger World War III, as other nations may be forced to choose sides. As a result, any US response needs to be carefully planned and considered, or else it could prompt a tremendous amount of destruction.
US Deterrence
Despite the aforementioned difficulties, the US is still well positioned to deter a North Korean attack. In the past, the US has imposed economic sanctions and military presence in the Korean Peninsula, the latter of which is arguably the primary deterrent. The US’s military presence is one of the largest in the world – and has the support of key international allies – creating an environment in which North Korea does not feel confident about initiating an attack.
North Korea has shown no signs of ceasing its nuclear weapons development program, which is largely viewed in the international community as a serious threat. The US has condemned these efforts, imposed sanctions, and placed exercises with military allies in the region to prevent further progress. This shows that the US is serious about curbing North Korean ambitions and is willing to take action if necessary.
In addition, the US has employed multiple international organizations to ensure economic stability in the region dampening North Korea’s desires to attack. For example, in 2017, the US was able to successfully persuade the UN’s Security Council to pass a resolution significantly curtailing the country’s exports and ability to earn money.
Alternate deterrence strategies
In addition to conventional deterrence strategies, the US is taking other steps to make a North Korean attack less likely. The US has attempted to employ psychological warfare to disincentivize North Korean aggression, such as threatening economic and military sanctions and publicizing the effects of economic pressure. The US has also attempted to use ‘soft power’ to convince North Korea to desist its aggressive actions. This generally entails public statements, economic incentives, and other diplomatic actions.
The US has also attempted to de-escalate tensions by establishing various working groups between the US and North Korea, involving both government officials and civilians. These working groups have discussed topics such as human rights, reconciliation, nuclear arms reduction, and a potential peace treaty. While these efforts have largely been unsuccessful in bringing North Korea to the negotiating table, they provide an alternative to direct confrontation.
In addition, the US has employed a ‘strategic patience’ policy, sending a signal to North Korea that it will not be forced into a confrontation. This policy has been coupled with confidence-building measures including diplomatic visits, cultural exchanges, and peace talks. These measures serve to reduce the threat of sudden and unexpected aggression from North Korea.
Risks of Continuation
Despite US efforts, there remain considerable risks of escalating tensions with North Korea. North Korea is a known proliferator of nuclear technology and has an active cyberwarfare program. These capabilities, along with their unpredictable nature, leave the chance of an attack that the US could be unprepared or inexperienced to handle.
In addition, North Korea could decide to employ unconventional tactics – such as an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack – that the US may not be ready to counter. An EMP attack could severely disrupt American communications, utilities, and infrastructure without risking North Korean casualties, making it an ideal weapon for North Korea.
Finally, North Korea’s government could choose to ignore US deterrents and launch a conventional attack on South Korea or US forces stationed in the region. This could set off a domino-effect of strong retaliatory responses that could spill over into international engagement. These potential escalations that could occur from a North Korean attack underscore the dangers of North Korea.
Pressing a diplomatic resolution
The US should continue to put pressure on North Korea to seek a diplomatic resolution to the present tensions. US-led economic sanctions have worked in the past to reduce North Korea’s economic activity, and should be increased if progress on a diplomatic solution is not seen. The US should simultaneously work to build strong relationships with international allies who are willing to participate in a similar framework.
The US should also employ multilateral negotiation tactics in order to encourage the North Korean government to engage in a long-term and meaningful dialogue. The US should engage in discussions with regional powers such as China, and should continue to support South Korea in its interactions with North Korea to ensure North Korea does not take any aggressive actions.
At the same time, the US should employ defensive measures to better defend itself against a potential North Korean attack. The US should work to strengthen its cyber defenses and should invest in EMP-prevention technologies. Finally, the US should continue to station military forces in the region as a deterrent, while also engaging in regular exercises to demonstrate its willingness and preparedness to protect its interests.
