Background Information
On December 17th, 2020, Kim Jong Un, the Supreme Leader of North Korea, stepped down from his beloved post due to “deteriorating” health. Since then, the region has been thrown into a deep and dark speculation on who will come to take his place and claim the title of the leader of one of the world’s most enigmatic countries.
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Kim Jong Un’s power had been notably consolidated over the years, leading him to unchallenged rule over North Korea. With a title as high as ‘Supreme commander of the armed forces’ written in his resume and a large and effective cult of personality forged from his eleven year reign, it is no surprise that the North Korean people, who had become quite accustomed to the lifestyle and strong rhetorics of the controversial leader, were hit by a wave of discontent in the wake of his departure.
Kim Jong Un’s rise to power had been marked by both successes and disappointments, most notably the failure of his UN sanctioned sanctions against both economic and military staff and the missile testing disasters that rose in the countries’ latest attempts to join the nuclear weapons race.
Perspectives from Experts
Efforts to replace Kim Jong Un have been couched in grief and a solemn difficult for many of North Korea’s citizens, says Stanford political scientist Marie Dennis, an expert on the NK dictatorship. “It’s a painful process and it’s not without risk. There is no easy solution or path forward – and it’s likely to involve much larger structural changes than might be assumed from the outside.”
“We can’t afford to ignore what’s going on inside North Korea,” says Korea expert Heather Smith, a professor at the University of Minnesota and former analyst at the Institute for South East Asian Journalists. “The country is in a very delicate and potentially explosive situation, and no external power can hope to resolve the situation without careful and continuous engagement.”
Own Insights and Analysis
With the untimely departure of Kim Jong Un there has been a great deal of speculation as to who will come to claim the title of leader of North Korea. Though many have turned to Kim’s family for their answer, some experts have come out and pointed to the possibility of North Korea going through a major transformation of its governing structure as it has been through many times before. The current void in the very top of North Korea’s power structure could be filled by a collective leader, much like the governing structure of the People’s Republic of China.
It is yet unclear as to who will take Kim Jong Un’s place, and for how long this power will serve the country. But one possible outcome of the situation is that North Korea could become another Asian political powerhouse, similar to China, through a collective leadership system. This could bring in reforms that many experts say are much needed after the reign of Kim Jong-un.
Role of the People
The selection of a new leader will undoubtedly be a very tightly managed process, conducted in secret and with few, if any, voices outside the inner circles of North Korean politics in attendance. That said, it is important to note that the people of North Korea will also play a key role in deciding who shall gain the title of North Korea’s new leader.
It is likely that North Korea’s new leader will be chosen through a process of public opinion. This means that the citizens of the country will be consulted on who they believe is the right person for the job. In this case, their opinion could be decisive in deciding the new leader, given their familiarity with Kim Jong Un’s tenure as well as their first-hand experience of daily life in North Korea’s oppressive regime.
In addition to public opinion, the new leader might be chosen after a formal vote held in the North Korean parliament. This vote is likely to be highly controlled, with the most powerful figures in the country dictating the result. North Korea’s new leader might also be chosen from a pool of military elites, based on their loyalty to the country, as well as their commitment to the preservation of the country’s authoritarian ideology.
Economic Outlook
The selection of North Korea’s new leader could have a significant influence on the country’s economic future. As an isolated nation, North Korea’s access to global economies and trading partners is minimal, so the country is heavily reliant on its own resources. As a result, the economic outlook of North Korea is largely dependent on the choices made by the country’s new leader.
It is possible that the new leader of North Korea will prioritize economic integration, which could lead to increased investment and economic growth. This could lead to increased economic stability and improved living conditions for the citizens of North Korea. On the other hand, the new leader could prioritize maintaining the current isolation, which could result in further economic stagnation.
Finally, the new leader might choose to pursue a more aggressive economic policy, which could lead to increased trade with hostile nations, along with other potential risks. This could lead to an unpredictable and highly risky economic situation for North Korea, and would almost certainly require strong international support for it to be successful.
Reform of North Korea
The selection of North Korea’s new leader could also lead to a significant reform of the country’s political structure. After a period of authoritarian rule and suppression, North Korea could potentially be open to new ideas and systems. This could potentially lead to more openness and freedom for the country’s citizens, as well as greater transparency in government.
A more open government could also lead to an influx of foreign investment and improved economic ties with other countries. This could lead to increased economic prosperity and improved living standards for the citizens of North Korea. In addition, the new leader could prioritize environmental protection, allowing the country to become an international leader in sustainability.
On the other hand, the new leader could prioritize maintaining the current oppressive rule and surveillance, which could lead to further human rights abuses and a stagnant economy. Additionally, the new leader could pursue a more aggressive foreign policy, which could lead to an increase in regional tensions and instability.
Danger of Unification
The selection of North Korea’s new leader could also lead to increased speculation of a potential unity between North and South Korea. This would be a dangerous situation, as it is possible that the two countries could become destabilized by a unified government. If a unified government is chosen, this could potentially lead to long-term regional instability and a period of unrest in both countries.
Additionally, it is possible that the new leader could choose to prioritize stability over reform. This could lead to the imposition of strict laws and regulations, which could further limit the freedoms and rights of both North and South Korean citizens. In this case, the new leader could be unwilling to compromise on issues such as reunification and could attempt to retain power through oppressive tactics.
Finally, it is possible that a reunified Korean government could have disastrous economic repercussions. A unified government could impose strict regulations on foreign investments and trade, which could lead to a decrease in economic prosperity and a decrease in overall quality of life. Additionally, a unified government could lead to increased tensions with other nations, leading to increased pressure and sanctions from the international community.
