Background
North Korea has been ruled by the Kim dynasty since the 1940s, when the first leader, Kim Il Sung, established the country as a socialist state. He was succeeded by his son, Kim Jong Il, in 1994, who was then replaced by his grandson, Kim Jong Un, in 2011. But Kim Jong Un’s rule is nearing its end. After six years in power, he has yet to designate an heir, as is traditional in North Korean leadership. This has sparked multiple questions: Who will be the next leader of North Korea? How will they be chosen? And how will they govern the country?
Political System
North Korea is a heavily controlled state, with a totalitarian regime and a single-party political system. Its government is heavily centered on the ruling Kim family and its rule is perpetuated through a system of hereditary succession. This has been the case for several generations, as power is passed down from father to son in the Kim dynasty. In North Korea, succession is strictly based on seniority and gender; the eldest son of the current leader is traditionally the one to take power. As such, the eldest son of Kim Jong Un has been identified as the most likely successor.
Heir Apparent
Kim Jong Un’s eldest son, Kim Jong Un, Jr. is thought to be the heir apparent. He was born in 2010 and is currently the only child of Kim Jong Un and his wife, Ri Sol-ju. Little is known about him, as he remains largely hidden from public view, but he is thought to be the designated successor. He has been photographed on occasion, most notably at the 2019 inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang, as well as at several military events. However, since his father’s dramatic health issues in 2020, the North Korean media has released fewer pictures of the family, leaving his exact status unknown.
Succession Process
The succession process in North Korea is an unclear one. Though the state has some democratic trappings — it holds elections and has a single-party system — the Kim dynasty has held power for seven decades, and the head of state is always a member of the family. Its process of hereditary succession appears to be relatively haphazard and is often seen as undemocratic and outdated.
Stability & Popular Support
Still, it is possible that the succession process will be successful in preserving the stability of North Korea and garnering popular support for the new leader. The current leader Kim Jong Un has proved to be very popular in the country, with his approval rating among citizens remaining relatively high. He is seen by many as a symbol of unity and strength, and he has been at the forefront of the state’s much-publicized effort to modernize the country.
Peace & Economic Progress
An important factor in North Korea’s future stability is the role of other nations, particularly those of the South. South Korea and the United States have made significant strides in negotiating a peaceful end to nuclear tensions in recent years. This has enabled economic progress in North Korea, which could improve the lives of its citizens and create more stability in the region.
Military & Internal Opposition
Though the new leader may face few external challengers, they will likely face significant opposition from within their own military. The military has proven to be a powerful force in North Korean politics, and its loyalties are divided among the various branches and factions. It is likely that the new leader will have to work hard to maintain control over the military and ensure their loyalty.
Education & Incentivization
The new leader could help to ensure their power, as well as the continued stability of North Korea, by focusing on the education and incentivization of the citizenry. North Korean citizens are not necessarily loyal to the Kim family, but it is possible that through the provision of education and other incentives, the new leader could gain their support.
Transparency
The new leader could also ensure stability by increasing governmental transparency. North Korea is a heavily censored state with extremely limited civil liberties, but increased transparency could give citizens more faith in the government and help to solidify the new leader’s position.
International Assertiveness
Finally, the new leader could focus on international assertiveness and economic growth. North Korea is a highly isolated state and its economy has suffered greatly due to its continued isolation. A focus on international relations and economic growth could help to increase the nation’s standing in the global community and bolster the new leader’s support among their citizens.
Diversifying Economy
The new leader can also focus on diversifying North Korea’s economy. While North Korea has been largely reliant on its mining, military, and agricultural industries in the past, the new leader can focus on exploring new avenues for economic expansion, such as tourism and technology. Diversifying the economy could create more opportunities for North Korean citizens and provide them with greater long-term job security.
Reforming Policies
The new leader should also focus on reforming existing policies in North Korea. This could include loosening restrictions on media and speech, expanding civil liberties, and promoting free-market principles. All of these reforms would help to solidify the new leader’s position in North Korea and could provide them with more popular support.
Human Rights & Relationships
The new leader should also be focused on improving human rights and diplomatic relationships. Kim Jong-un’s leadership has been linked to a number of gruesome human rights violations, including execution, torture, and the use of prison camps. Improving human rights and diplomatic relationships with other countries could help to restore North Korea’s international reputation and improve the lives of its citizens.
Open Dialogue & Communication
Finally, the new leader should focus on establishing open dialogue and communication with other nations. North Korean leaders have long relied on secrecy and isolation, but an open dialogue with the international community could bring more stability to the country and ensure that the new leader is respected both domestically and internationally.
