Deteriorating relationships within the Korean Peninsula threaten the safety of many citizens who live in the region. As tensions continue to mount, one looming question remains: Who would North Korea attack first?
A professor of diplomacy and international relations at a South Korean university, who chose to remain anonymous, believes that economic motivation lies at the heart of North Korea’s military objectives. “North Korea is motivated by profit,” he says. “Their main goal is to maximize the economic gains they can obtain from any military action they take.”
This theory is supported by the Korean Peninsula’s history of strategic military posturing. The Peninsula’s instability has been linked to the Korean War of 1950, which pitted North Korea against South Korea and the United States and China. While North Korea’s warring intentions now go beyond the Korean Peninsular, some believe that Pyongyang could still launch an attack against either South Korea, Japan, or both.
“Given the nature of North Korea’s government, it is difficult to accurately predict the target of future aggression,” says Dr. Rhyan Barnadas, an enthusiastic Korean scholar. “But there is certainly the potential that the country may choose to act on pre-existing grievances towards South Korea or even Japan.”
This ‘potential’ is backed up by North Korea’s decision to test-fire missiles into the East Sea in early 2017. Despite the dangers posed by such provocative acts of war, the North Korean military appears determined to keep military tensions alive and ongoing.
When asked about the potential future targets of North Korea’s military ambitions, Dr. Barnadas replied cautiously. “We cannot rule out any potential targets,” he admitted. “North Korea is notorious for the unpredictability of its military.”
Political Motivations
Political motivation is another factor that could trigger a North Korean attack. It has been suggested that Pyongyang may attempt to destabilize the government of its neighbors as a means of strengthening its political interests in the region.
Even with no clear military objective in sight, political analysts suggest that North Korea may also use its military power to intimidate countries in the region, such as South Korea and Japan, into accepting its nuclear stance.
“Although North Korea does not currently have the potential to wage a full-scale war against those nations, its fear tactics can be very effective in terms of achieving a political agenda,” says Dr. Barnadas.
Political theorists fear that North Korea may use military aggression to gain a larger share of the Korean Peninsula’s political power. Although it remains unclear what North Korea’s true motivations are, the possibility of North Korea taking further action against its neighbors in the near future is a valid concern.
Possible Targets
So who are the likely targets of a North Korean attack? South Korean military analyst Moon Sung-gwan notes that the answer to this question depends on the real motives of the North Korean government. “North Korea has always sought to maintain its military dominance on the Peninsula,” he says. “It could use its military power to secure a greater share of political power in the region.”
Dr. Barnadas shares this point of view. “In my opinion, South Korea is the primary target of any North Korean aggression,” he said. “It is the closest country militarily, and North Korea’s military capability is such that it can successfully fight against a far less advanced South Korean military.”
Japan, however, is seen as another possible target of North Korean aggression. Moon notes that North Korean’s relations with Japan are fragile, and that Pyongyang could use its military might to gain leverage over Tokyo. “This leverage could be used to force trade concessions or political concessions from Japan,” he said.
Nuclear Weapons
Perhaps the most worrying factor in the current situation is North Korea’s rapidly advancing nuclear technology. Experts have warned of the dangers posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons, such as their potential to launch a powerful electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack against many of its neighbors.
“North Korea’s nuclear capabilities could be used to launch a devastating EMP attack against Japan or South Korea with little notice,” said Moon. “The attack would render much of their communications and electrical infrastructure useless, causing massive disruption and chaos.”
Dr. Barnadas, who is critical of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, believes that the development of nuclear weapons could spark a regional conflict and put countries in the region at risk. “It is essential that North Korea not be allowed to gain an advantage by using its nuclear technology, as it could lead to disaster for the entire region.”
North Korea’s Alliances
North Korea’s alliances with Russia and China are also a cause for concern. It is possible that those countries could offer support to Pyongyang in the event of a conflict with other nations in the region.
“These countries have been known to extend military support to North Korea in the past,” Moon said. “Given that China has a much more powerful military than South Korea or Japan, it could lend a great deal of support to North Korea should it choose to launch a military attack on one of those countries.”
This potential for additional military support would undoubtedly be a boon for North Korea, as it would give it a much greater chance of success in any attack it might attempt.
Denuclearization
The increasing threat of a North Korean attack has led some experts to call for the country to abandon its nuclear ambitions and sign a denuclearization treaty. However, this remains a challenging and potentially dangerous proposition.
It is clear that the signatory of any such treaty must demonstrate a degree of restraint and trustworthiness in order to ensure that North Korea is committed to adhering to it. “Given that the regime is unpredictable, it is difficult to ascertain whether or not it can be trusted to abide by any treaty it might sign,” Dr. Barnadas noted.
Therefore, any course of action that seeks to negotiate with North Korea should be done cautiously, and with the realization that even if a deal is struck, North Korea’s aggressive nature may yet place it in conflict with its neighbours.
Sanctions
One possible solution to the current crisis is for countries to impose economic sanctions on North Korea in order to force it to abandon its nuclear ambitions. It is well known that North Korea relies heavily on its limited trade relationships to obtain the resources it needs to sustain its economy.
“A unified effort among the nations of the world to impose economic sanctions on North Korea could help to deter the regime from choosing to take further aggressive action,” Moon says. “By limiting its ability to import goods, financial resources are effectively taken away from the military, making it less likely that they will choose to act in a belligerent manner.”
However, it is uncertain whether the sanctions proposed by the international community will have the desired effect. North Korea’s years of military posturing show no signs of abating, and it is unclear if the regime is willing to make any concessions.
Negotiations
With the crisis continuing to deepen, the nations of the world have begun to call for negotiations with North Korea in order to persuade it to abandon its nuclear weapons. However, many believe this course of action could be dangerous due to the unpredictable nature of the regime.
“Negotiations should be used as a last resort,” Dr. Barnadas said. “Given the unpredictability of North Korea’s government, it is difficult to predict how they might respond to diplomatic overtures.”
Therefore, negotiations must only be pursued if it can be guaranteed that North Korea will not use them as a means to gain an advantage. Nonetheless, diplomacy remains a viable option for addressing the current crisis, if handled with care.
Conclusion
In conclusion, North Korea’s potential targets for attack remain unclear. It is possible that the country may use its military power to intimidate its neighbours or gain a larger share of the Korean Peninsula’s political power. North Korea’s advancing nuclear capabilities represent a major threat to the region, and the world’s nations must work together to ensure it does not gain an advantage through this technology. In addition to economic sanctions, diplomatic negotiations could be used as a method of achieving this goal, though this should be done with great caution due to the unpredictable nature of the regime.
