Kim Jong-Un’s Intentions
Kim Jong-Un has been a constant threat to any country within reach of North Korea since he took power in 2011. His ambition is to create a unified Korean peninsula, a highly militarized one which aligns North and South Korea. This ambition clearly expresses the need to show a strong military presence in order to achieve his goal. North Korea is a powerful nuclear force who has shown that in the past, they are willing to use it as a form of national defense. Given this, the question many countries are asking is – who would North Korea bomb?
Experts’ Views On North Korean Strategic Intent
Experts within the political and studied the power dynamics in East Asia often discuss the highly complex interaction of external and internal factors that are potentially responsible for North Korean aggressive behavior. It is believed that many of Kim Jong-Un’s military strategies are structured around directing attention externally, as a means of diverting attention from any internal issues which may hinder his grip on power. It is therefore widely believed that countries closest to North Korea may be potential targets for aggression.
North Korea’s Military Capabilities
North Korea maintains one of the world’s largest standing armies with over one million soldiers, and they have a powerful arsenal of ballistic missiles which have been tested several times in recent years. North Korea is believed to have a stockpile of nuclear weapons of varying sizes and power. It is estimated that they have upwards of 60 nuclear weapons which can be detonated by either land based or aerial missile delivery systems. North Korea also has a fleet of submarines which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads to distant waters. All these capabilities significantly increase the possibility of an attack on a certain target.
Targets of A North Korean Attack
Many experts believe that any country which is perceived as hostile by North Korea is a potential target. South Korea is particularly vulnerable given its proximity to North Korea and its vulnerable infrastructure. South Korea’s capital, Seoul, is only a few miles away from the North Korean border, and Pyongyang has the capability to launch nuclear weapons at Seoul in a matter of minutes. Other countries that could potentially be the target of an attack include Japan and the United States. Japan maintains a military base in the Japan Sea which provides a threat to North Korea. The United States is also a primary target due to its support of South Korea and its economic sanctions against North Korea.
Managing the Threat of North Korean Aggression
One of the primary ways in which countries can manage the threat of North Korean aggression is through diplomacy. The United Nations is conducting ongoing meetings to negotiate terms in which North Korea can agree to halt their ballistic missile tests and halt their nuclear weapons program. It is clear that any solution must take into consideration Kim Jong-Un’s ambitions and must be acceptable to both North and South Korea.
In addition to diplomatic measures, countries may also employ economic strategies to limit any potential aggression. By implementing economic sanctions, countries are able to limit North Korea’s access to resources that could be used to expand and improve their military capabilities. Sanctions are also a way of putting financial and diplomatic pressure on North Korea in order to induce a change in policies.
North Korean Relations with its Neighbours and Allies
North Korea has long claimed to be a single unified nation, but in reality, it has been divided between two countries since the Korean War. North Korea and South Korea have historically had rocky relations, and the tension between them has been a major source of international insecurity. Over the past few years, the two countries have been making strides towards establishing a diplomatic dialogue and have even held summits to resolve their differences.
North Korea also has a close relationship with its ally China, who are seen to be a major economic partner. China has also been supportive of North Korea’s goal of creating a unified Korean peninsula and has been active in providing aid and support to North Korea. Another ally is Russia, who have provided military and economic assistance to North Korea in the past.
The Impact of Sanctions on North Korea’s Nuclear Programme
The UN Security Council has passed many resolutions which place economic sanctions on North Korea in order to limit their nuclear weapons programme. These sanctions have highly impacted the country’s development and proliferation of nuclear weapons, as well as their ability to finance and export nuclear technologies. As a response to these sanctions, North Korea has engaged in more aggressive ballistic missile testing in order to demonstrate the country’s capability to retaliate and respond to any external threat.
The Risk of Nuclear Conflict
The possibility of North Korea executing an attack against any of its potential targets is real and ever-present. The risk of a nuclear conflict is particularly heightened given that North Korea has a willing ally in China and a number of hostile countries, or countries which are believed to be hostile, in the east and south Asian region. The United States has made it clear that they will respond with force if North Korea attempts to launch an attack. North Korea’s reliability and unpredictability has caused many countries to remain wary of their true intentions, and it is vital that diplomatic channels remain open in order to mitigate the risk of war.
