The United States and North Korea have been considered potential adversaries since the end of the Korean War in 1953 and there is always a potential for the two countries to go to war over different issues. The nuclear arms race between the two countries in 2017 has further heightened tensions and today, a full-scale war between the two nations could potentially have devastating consequences. Still the questions remain: If a war would happen, who would win?
When it comes to military power, it is no secret that the United States has a huge advantage over North Korea. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the U.S. has a total military personnel of 1,400,000 compared to North Korea’s 1,190,000. The U.S. also has a much larger arsenal of advanced weapons, including new technologies such as stealth bombers, nuclear submarines and advanced missiles and bombs. Moreover, the U.S. has a large arsenal of nuclear weapons, estimated to be around 3,800, while North Korea is believed to possess no more than 15 nuclear weapons.
In addition, the U.S. has a large and sophisticated navy and air force that could easily overpower North Korea in any conflict. The U.S. Navy has 11 aircraft carriers and 65 submarines, as well as a large number of destroyers and other warships, while North Korea only has a handful of modest submarines and a few outdated aircraft carriers. Moreover, the U.S. Air Force is vastly superior to the North Korean air force, with the latest technology in stealth bombers and other aircraft.
Moreover, the United States has long had a strategic advantage over North Korea in terms of intelligence gathering technology and information. The U.S. is known to have a vast intelligence network and vast technological capabilities, while North Korea has limited access to such technology. The U.S. military also has the advantage of having better communication systems and more sophisticated means of gathering and transmitting intelligence.
In addition, the United States has a strong and well-trained military, while North Korea’s military lags far behind in terms of training and development. The majority of North Korean military personnel are conscripts who are not as well-trained and experienced as their American counterparts. Furthermore, North Korea is known to be suffering from a number of economic problems, including a lack of food and medicine, making it difficult for the regime to maintain its military capabilities.
Furthermore, the United States has a significant economic advantage over North Korea, thanks to decades of economic growth, strong economic policies and strong alliances with other countries. It is estimated that the U.S. economy is 36 times the size of North Korea’s, making a conflict between the two countries a mismatch from the start.
Geographic Disadvantages for North Korea
It is also important to consider the geographical differences between the two countries. North Korea is a small, mountainous nation that is surrounded by sea on three sides, making it difficult for the regime to sustain a prolonged conflict. The U.S. also has a much larger population than North Korea, which makes it easier for the U.S. to draw support from its people in times of conflict.
In addition, North Korea is heavily isolated and cut off from the rest of the world, while the United States is part of a global community and has the ability to use its allies and partners to its advantage in any conflict with Pyongyang. North Korea also has much weaker infrastructure and lack of modern technology, which would make it difficult for the country to fight a full-scale war against such a powerful adversary as the United States.
Finally, it is important to consider the human cost of a conflict between the United States and North Korea. The nature of the conflict would be vastly different from conventional wars, as the use of nuclear weapons by either side could lead to devastating consequences, not only for the two countries involved but for the entire world. Hundreds of thousands of lives could be lost in the event of a nuclear exchange and the impact on civil society would be catastrophic and long lasting.
What About North Korea’s Cyber Warfare?
Some analysts argue that while North Korea would be no match for the U.S. militarily, the regime could employ advanced cyber warfare techniques to carry out attacks against the U.S. This could involve attacks on critical infrastructure and networks, as well as interference with communications and media, potentially causing chaos and disruption.
However, the U.S. is also well-equipped to defend against these kinds of attacks, thanks to strong cyber security protocols that are in place. The U.S. has established the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) to protect against and respond to cyber threats, and the U.S. government and private sector have invested heavily in cyber defense technologies over the past decade.
In addition, the U.S. has also deployed a number of advanced cyber weapons, and has established an offensive capability to undermine cyber threats posed by adversary nations. The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) has established a “Digital Impact Division” (DID) to carry out cyber warfare capabilities and operations, and has made significant investments in the development of offensive cyber weapons.
Sanctions, Embargoes and Diplomacy
The U.S. also has strong diplomatic and economic leverage over North Korea, in the form of sanctions, embargoes and financial and trade restrictions. The U.S. has imposed numerous economic sanctions against North Korea, blocking the regime from accessing foreign currencies and preventing it from trading with many countries.
The U.S. also has the ability to cut off food, energy and financial assistance to North Korea, as well as blocking vital shipments of essential goods and services, which could severely weaken the regime and potentially lead to a collapse if these measures are continued.
Finally, while the military might of the U.S. far outperforms North Korea, many experts believe the two countries should try to settle the conflict diplomatically to avoid a destructive war. U.S. President Donald Trump has sought to improve relations with North Korea, but the two countries remain far apart on a number of issues. Diplomatic negotiations remain the best hope for avoiding a war between the two countries and ultimately resolving the nuclear issue.
Geopolitical Non Engagement of North Korea
Another potential factor in the conflict is the geopolitical situation of North Korea. It is surrounded by powerful countries, such as China and Japan, and does not have any major allies. This further complicates the situation, as it could be difficult for North Korea to sustain a prolonged war against such a strong adversary as the United States.
Moreover, despite the impending threat from North Korea, the U.S. has a number of allies in the region, including South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. These countries could provide the U.S. with vital intelligence and support in the event of a conflict, making it difficult for North Korea to sustain a prolonged war against the U.S. and its allies.
Finally, North Korea’s isolation and lack of international support could further hamper its ability to engage in conflict. North Korea is already economically isolated, and further international sanctions could cause even more damage to its already fragile economy, making it more vulnerable to U.S. aggression.
Spreading of Misinformation
Finally, North Korea could also attempt to use misinformation and propaganda to spread fear and confusion during a conflict. North Korea has demonstrated in the past that it has the capability to spread false news stories, as well as engage in cyber warfare operations. Such activities could make it difficult for the U.S. and its allies to assess the situation accurately, potentially leading to strategic errors and miscalculations.
In addition, North Korea has invested heavily in its state-controlled media, which is known to spread false information and propaganda, as well as engage in psychological warfare. The regime could use this to its advantage in any conflict, spreading false information in an effort to nurture fear, confusion and dissent among the U.S. population and allies.
Deterrence and Preemption
Given the potentially destructive effects of a war, many experts believe that the best option is deterrence and preemption, rather than a full-scale war. Both the U.S. and North Korea believe that they have a credible nuclear deterrent, which should be enough to prevent either country from launching a direct attack on the other.
The U.S. has also taken steps to prevent a conflict, such as maintaining a dialogue with North Korea and working to promote peace and stability in the region. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has also emphasized the need for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, and has indicated his willingness to meet with North Korean officials for further talks.
Furthermore, the U.S. has strong economic leverage over North Korea, and can use sanctions and embargoes to dissuade the regime from engaging in conflict. The U.S. has also made strong economic ties with countries in the region, such as Japan and South Korea, which could provide vital support in the event of a conflict.
Preparing for Worst Case Scenario
While the best outcome would be a diplomatic solution to the conflict, it is important to prepare for the worst case scenario of a full-scale war between the two countries. In this case, the U.S. should be prepared to act decisively and quickly, while ensuring that any military action taken is proportionate and limited in scope.
Moreover, the U.S. should maintain close coordination with its allies in the region, such as South Korea and Japan, to ensure that any military response is coordinated and effective. The U.S. should also ensure that it has clear operational goals and a well though-out strategy for carrying out military operations, including rules of engagement and timelines.
Finally, the U.S. should ensure that it is well-prepared to deal with the aftermath of a war, in terms of humanitarian aid, economic rehabilitation and security. In this regard, the U.S. should make sure that it has strong and reliable partners in the region, as well as the necessary resources to deal with the challenges that would arise in the aftermath of a war.
