Nuclear Capability of North Korea
As a major national security concern, the continued development of nuclear weapons programs and increasingly sophisticated intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) by North Korea is a central reason why the international community can’t seem to “stop North Korea.” North Korea has become increasingly capable of hitting targets outside the Korean Peninsula, which proposes a greater nuclear threat. Since 2006, North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests, with a purported sixth test under way as of late 2018, further heightening the tension between itself and other nations, including the United States. A United Nations report from 2016 obtained by the Office of Security and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (SCAP) described how North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal had increased up to 20-25 devices, and they were beginning to start projects to upgrade their ballistic missiles by putting nuclear warheads in them.
Bruce Bennett, a North Korean expert at the Rand Corporation, emphasises that North Korea likely has the capacity to mount miniaturised nuclear warheads on its ICBMs, making North Korea’s nuclear arsenal an even bigger danger. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ignored international opposition to set up. nuclear development and ICBM tests, instead engaging in a series of provocative gestures in recent years. Kim’s behavior indicates that the danger of nuclear-armed North Korea is only getting stronger.
Sanctions and Efforts to Stop North Korea
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has enacted several rounds of strong economic sanctions to try and discourage North Korea from developing its nuclear weapon program. These sanctions have greatly limited international trade, finance and aid to North Korea, most notably regarding petroleum and oil products. In addition, the UNSC has called for an increased monitoring of North Korea by a coalition of nations.
Despite these efforts, the sanctions have yet to successfuly hinder North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. The UNSC has even ordered North Korea to stop all nuclear activities and plan a course of denuclearisation, but this has had little influence on North Korea’s decision-making.
Despite the sanctions, North Korea continues to increase its metal and missile number, including the testing of missile technology, proving that current sanctions are not succeeding in their effort to stop North Korea.
Geopolitical Position of North Korea and the US
The US is North Korea’s main adversary. North Korea sees the US as a threat to its sovereignty and security, viewing the US as a major military force in East Asia. Since the Korean War, the US and North Korea have been in a state of uneasiness and distrust. This distrust has been further highlighted by comments from current US President Donald Trump, who has warned North Korea over its nuclear ambitions.
Additionally, North Korea is heavily influenced by the foreign policies and nuclear activities of its closest neighbouring countries, including China and Russia. These two countries have propped up the regime and supported its nuclear ambitions, seeing the nuclear arsenal of North Korea as a deterrent for further US interference.
Meanwhile, the actions of North Korea have caused alarm among a large number of countries, and is most likely to be a major impediment to regional stability, if not global stability. This is why achieving a denuclearisation goal of the Korean peninsula is integral to maintain regional and global peace.
International Cooperation and Negotiations
The US and North Korea recently attempted to dialogue in a series of high-level negotiations. US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un exchanged personal letters and met in 2018 to discuss the denuclearisation of Korean peninsula and the potential of a peace treaty to officially end the Korean War.
From these letters, the two countries agreed to further negotiations with the ultimate goal of denuclearisation, as well as the return of the remains of fallen US soldiers from the Korean War. Though it was a step forward, many analysts remain sceptical of the agreement and have pointed out the fact that it lacks any planned steps to achieve this goal.
What is Being Done
The international response to address the North Korean threat has been characterised by military threats, economic sanctions, diplomatic negotiations and humanitarian assistance, with varying success. For the US, the goal of denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula remains the top priority and is supported by the United Nations and other countries in the region.
The US Department of State and the US Department of Defense have been working in tandem to pursue diplomatic and economic measures to encourage North Korea’s denuclearisation. In response to North Korean missile tests, the US has sought to use global network of alliances to secure its interests in the region and to further with regional stability.
The US has also tried to use financial and economic sanctions to put pressure on North Korea to end its nuclear and missile tests. However, the effectiveness of these sanctions has been limited by the lack of cooperation from which North Korea has been able to benefit due illicit activities, such as the smuggling of goods and money laundering.
Social and Economic Conditions in North Korea
The economic sanctions imposed on North Korea have had a major impact on its economy and population. North Korea is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world, with restrictions on imports, exports and investments. These sanctions have had a major negative effect on North Korea’s economy, reducing the state’s income and its ability to access international markets.
The restrictions have also had a negative impact on the population, as the availability of food, water, and medicine is limited. The World Food Program reports that nearly 40% of the population is food-insecure and in need of external food.
It’s estimated that an estimated 18 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance and about 10.5 people lack access to basic necessities such as food, water, and healthcare. With a population of 25 million people, most of the population of North Korea lives in poverty and is vulnerable to the economic sanctions imposed by the international community.
This situation has led to a growing rift between the North Korean state and its citizens as people are becoming increasingly aware of the dire consequences of the harsh economic policies. However, North Korea continues to put the nuclear ambitions before the welfare of its citizens, leading to the continuation of the current conflict.
International Reaction to Conflict
In the context of months of nuclear threats and rising tensions, the global community has started to take the crisis more seriously. Countries all around the world, including the US, Japan, South Korea, China, and other members of the UN Security Council, have expressed their deep concerns and condemnation.
The UN, through its Sanctions Committee, has imposed several measures in an effort to stem North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons. The International Crisis Group has been pushing for diplomatic talks, bilateral and multilateral dialogues among all the stakeholders to prevent further escalations.
Organisations such as The Carter Center and the Asia Society have been making efforts to raise awareness and concentrate attention on the humanitarian consequences of the crisis. Pressure is also mounting from non-governmental organisations and activists to have access to North Korea and to help affected people.
Conclusion of Non-Military Solutions
Kori Schake, Director of Foreign and Defence Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, argues that using military force should be a last resort option. Schake says the cost of war would greatly outweigh any potential gains, so the US and its allies should continue to pursue diplomatic and economic solutions.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said the US is open to dialogue with North Korea and is asking its allies to put more pressure on North Korea to open negotiations, as well as to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.
Nonetheless, it remains to be seen whether the North Korean regime will respond to the international pressure and choose to engage in dialogue or to continue on its current path of destabilisation. The international community will have to continue to work together and make sure that North Korea puts the safety and security of the Korean Peninsula and the world as a priority.
