Geopolitics Of North Korea-Japan Relations
Until the early 2020s, the relationship between North Korea and Japan was a rocky one. In 1965, North Korea violated Japan’s waters and airspace, launching an unauthorized missile and causing an international furore. In the following years, North Korea made a number of further attempts to test Japanese defences, although none were successful. Despite this acrimonious history, in 2021 North Korea unexpectedly launched a missile towards Japan. Diplomatic and military analysts have raised questions as to why North Korea launched the missile and what their intentions were.
It’s widely believed that the missile was intended as a message of defiance from the North Korean government. Political tensions between Japan and North Korea had been simmering for years and, with the election of a new, hardline prime minister in 2021, the North Korean leadership felt it was necessary to make a show of strength. In addition, North Korea had previously declared that it was a “nuclear power”, and the missile launch was likely an attempt to demonstrate this.
Another reason for the launch was likely to show Japan that North Korea’s nuclear technology was far superior to theirs. According to experts, the missile flew at least twice as far as any of Japan’s own ballistic missiles, signalling that North Korea was in a far stronger military position. The purpose of the launch was thus to remind Japan of North Korea’s military and nuclear might.
The missile launch also served as a reaction to Japan’s new, stricter economic and trade policies. In 2021, the Japanese government had recently imposed economic sanctions on North Korea, in an attempt to pressure the regime into giving up its nuclear weapons program. North Korea responded with the missile launch, in order to show Japan that it was not going to be cowed by economic sanctions.
Analysts were also quick to note that the launch coincided with the start of a high-level diplomatic visit to Japan by the North Korean head of state. This suggests that the launch was intended to remind Japanese officials of North Korea’s military prowess and to put them on the back foot in diplomatic negotiations. Whatever the intent, the launch has soured relations between the two countries.
Alternative Perspectives
Some analysts have argued that the missile launch was a way for North Korea to demonstrate that it was no longer under the sway of China. In recent years, China had grown increasingly frustrated with North Korea’s belligerent behaviour and had threatened to impose economic sanctions on the country. By launching the missile, North Korea was sending a message to both China and Japan that it was an independent, sovereign nation and could not be pushed around by its neighbours.
Others have argued that the launch was an attempt by North Korea to gain the attention of the international community. In 2021, North Korea was facing a number of grave challenges, including a ravaged economy and a critical shortage of essential goods. North Korean leaders likely believed that by launching a missile towards Japan they could draw attention to the country’s plight and attract more sympathy and aid from the international community.
Finally, some have suggested that the launch was a means of reasserting North Korea’s right to self-defence, in the face of Japanese threats and aggression. By launching the missile, North Korea sought to remind Japan of its own military might, and to show that North Korea was not to be taken lightly.
Impact On North Korean-Japanese Relations
The impact of the missile launch on North Korean-Japanese relations has been severe. Japan has responded by tightening economic sanctions on North Korea, and relations between the two countries have deteriorated further. The launch has also fuelled speculation about the possibility of a new war breaking out, although both sides have so far refused to take the matter to the brink of conflict.
The missile launch has also had a significant impact on international relations. The United States, China, and other nations have expressed their condemnation of North Korea’s actions, and several bilateral talks have been cancelled in response. North Korea’s missile launch has thus highlighted the fragility of international security, and the potential risks posed by a nuclear-armed rogue state.
Experts’ Take On North Korea’s Actions
Experts have offered a variety of opinions on North Korea’s missile launch. Many believe that North Korea was seeking Sendai a strategic message, aimed at intimidating Japan and reassuring the international community of the country’s military strength. Others suggest that the launch was intended to drive a wedge between Japan and its allies, or to pressure Japan into offering more generous economic assistance to North Korea.
However, some experts have also argued that the launch was an impulsive act, rather than a calculated strategic move. In their view, the North Korean leadership may have acted without considering the consequences, or without obtaining approval from higher levels of the regime. It is also possible that the launch was an unauthorised action taken by lower-level military personnel.
Similar Events In The Past
North Korea’s missile launch was not the first of its kind. In 1965, North Korea launched a series of missiles towards Japan, violating Japanese airspace and drawing sharp international condemnation. In the decades since, North Korea has continued to test Japanese defences with a series of missile launches and other hostile acts. In response, Japan has kept up a high level of defence readiness and has repeatedly raised the issue with the United Nations.
Eyewitness accounts from the 1965 launch suggest that it may have been a mistake. According to some accounts, the launch was ordered by an inexperienced military personnel who misinterpreted the order to launch a “space mission”. In any case, the launch demonstrated the level of tension between North Korea and Japan at the time, and how easily even a minor incident could escalate.
Contemporary Factors Shaping The Situation
The missile launch has revealed the fragility of the North Korean-Japanese relationship, and has shown the potential risks posed by a nuclear-armed rogue nation. It has also highlighted the fact that the North Korean regime is under increasing pressure, both internally and externally. On the one hand, North Korea is facing stricter economic and trade policies from Japan, while on the other hand, it is also struggling to overcome its economic hardship.
The launch has also brought to light the fact that the North Korean regime is desperate for international recognition and support. The regime hopes that by demonstrating its military strength, it can leverage more sympathy and aid from the international community. Lastly, the launch has revealed the problematic relationship between Japan and its neighbours, as well as the increasingly tense diplomatic situation in the region.
Possible Ramifications Of The Incident
The missile launch has had a profound impact on North Korean-Japanese relations and on international security in general. In the short-term, the incident has resulted in a further deterioration in relations between North Korea and Japan, and it is likely to increase the tensions and mistrust between them. In the longer-term, the incident may lead to further confrontations between the two countries, or even to a full-blown war.
The incident has also served as a reminder that the threat of nuclear war is still very real, and that just one small mistake can have huge consequences. The launch has also highlighted the need for stricter international regulation of nuclear technology and better diplomatic communication, in order to avoid any further conflict.
Effect On The Korean Peninsula
The missile launch has created a new level of tension in the Korean Peninsula. It has exacerbated existing mistrust between North Korea and its neighbours, including South Korea and Japan, and it has increased fears over the possibility of a wider conflict breaking out. In addition, the launch has raised concerns about the safety and security of the region, and has highlighted the urgent need for better diplomatic channels between North Korea and its neighbours.
The launch has also drawn attention to the precarious situation in North Korea. The country is facing an increasingly dire economic situation, and the missile launch is unlikely to bring any relief. North Korea’s leadership may now be more desperate than ever for international support and aid, which could lead to further tensions and potentially dangerous situations in the short-term.
International Responses To North Korea’s Actions
In response to the missile launch, the United States and other countries have tightened their economic sanctions on North Korea and threatened military action, if necessary. China and other regional powers have condemned North Korea’s actions and have urged both sides to seek a peaceful resolution. The United Nations has also issued a strongly-worded resolution condemning the launch, and has called for an immediate halt to all hostile acts between North Korea and Japan.
The missile launch has revealed the fragile state of international relations and the potential for a major conflict breaking out. It has also highlighted the urgent need for better diplomatic communication between hostile nations, and for stricter regulation of nuclear technology.
