China’s Geopolitical Interest
North Korea has been an enigma and dilemma to the world. The hermit kingdom has kept its nuclear ambitions active, thumbing its nose at the sanctions imposed by the United Nations consistently and openly. To understand why China, a superpower in its own right, is diplomatically shielding North Korea, it’s important to look at the geopolitics from Beijing’s perspective. China’s relationship with North Korea is complicated due to decades-old ideological kinship, geographic vicinity, and ideological differences with the United States.
It is believed that even though China prizes the preservation of its external environment, Beijing is aware of the tremendous economic and social impact that the dissolution of North Korea would have on itself. As rough as the economical conditions in North Korea might be, a chaotic collapse inside the country’s boarders presents risks of far greater proportions to China. Floods of refugees, poverty and instability are some of the biggest fears for China, should the regime in North Korea crumble.
Strategic considerations
It is pretty much agreed that one of the main reasons why China is so keen to preserving the North Korean regime is due to strategic considerations. China has been in a tug of war with the United States for decades, ever since the end of the Cold War. During this time, the United States has gradually extended its regional military presence and alliances around Chinese borders, creating a “security dilemma” for Beijing. North Korea, despite being one of the poorest countries in the world, doesn’t entirely lack in strategic value. It is located right on the doorstep of China’s northeast, and for decades it has served as China’s buffer between itself and the United States.
A collapse of North Korea would not only create a massive refugee crisis on China’s doorstep, but would be damaging to its influence in East Asia. In addition, it is also likely that the U.S. would then extend its influence further into East Asia, stationing its troops south of the Korean peninsula. In such a situation, Beijing’s security nightmare could be realized if it fails to adopt preventive measures in advance.
Hawkish Influence
China’s hawkish view on its foreign policy towards North Korea intensified in the early 2000s after George W. Bush declared North Korea a part of the “axis of evil”. As a result, Beijing made a conscious decision to use North Korea as a buffer between the United States, as it deemed Washington’s hostile policies as a direct threat to itself.
China started to strengthen its alliance with North Korea giving the latter enormous economic importance. It currently accounts for over 90% of North Korea’s imported goods and supplies. In addition to this, Beijing strongly supports Pyongyang diplomatically by providing North Korea with a “diplomatic shield” and always vetoing the move for punitive measures under the United Nations Security Council.
Socioeconomic Aid
China is currently providing heavy economic aid to North Korea, partly due to humanitarian reasons, but also to exercise tight political control. For example, a number of dam projects and roads built by Chinese companies are allegedly used for hydropower generation, transport, resource extraction and storage, rather than for Pyongyang’s economic needs.
Recent economic data from 2018 shows that the Sino-North Korean trade value surpassed USD6 billion. Trade between these two countries is believed to be the major driving force behind North Korea’s economic development. Nevertheless, North Korea appears to be heavily constrained by the global sanctions that have been imposed by the international community, which have significantly limited its access to foreign markets.
Keeping Tensions Tamed
Ever since the Korean War, China has sought to bring stability to the Korean Peninsula. In 2018, the North and South started negotiations and held a historic meeting between their respective Republics in an effort to de-escalate tensions and bring peace. Chinese President, Xi Jinping took an active role in this endeavour by personally meeting with Kim Jong-un and suggesting additional economic aid and support for North Korea. These steps only underscore China’s willingness to ensure the maintenance of stability and prevent the possibility of the Cold War reigniting between South and North Korea, especially in a region where major players like USA and Japan are heavily involved.
An Unwelcome Plaything
Still, it’s possible to see China’s involvement in the Korean Peninsula affairs not so much as a forward-looking policy but rather a gamble. It appears to be an strategy of China’s regional planners to have North Korea as an asset which can be used as a negotiating chip when Beijing and Washington sit down to settle regional disputes. Beijing wants to keep North Korea where it is, not just because of its strategic value and possible destabilizing role, but because it can be used as an unwelcome plaything for the US and its allies in East Asia.
Regional Diplomacy
For decades China has been actively increasing its influence in the region, from Japan to Vietnam and from South Korea to Myanmar. The notion of an axis of cooperation between China, Russia and North Korea has been looming large in much of China’s diplomatic efforts in the region. To make this a reality, many believe that China needs to keep North Korea under its implicit control, at least to the extent that would allow China to increase its network and channels of negotiations with other regional powers.
Overall, North Korea continues to serve China in different ways. The nation is, of course, no ally to the United States; however, North Korea’s existence and international activities have consistently clearly aided and abetted the Chinese leadership – and will likely continue to do so in the coming years.
Maximising Diplomatic Leverage
Part of Beijing’s strategy has been to use North Korea as an asset to maximize its diplomatic leverage. As long as North Korea’s economic worth remains low enough, Beijing can manipulate the situation to its own benefit. Moreover, as long as sanctions hold, Pyongyang is even more susceptible to having to rely on pro-Chinese measures to pay for imports, such as food and fuel, from abroad.
In addition, North Korea serves as leverage for Beijing to maintain its hegemonic status in the region. By providing North Korea with economic and military assistance, Beijing makes certain that Pyongyang behaves in accordance with its wishes in order to maximize its benefits. By doing so, Beijing can deliver warnings to other countries in the region that it could have the power to isolate them not only economically, but also politically, if they ever challenge its dominance.
Pursuing Intentions Without Activities
China is also well aware of the limitations of its diplomatic clout and is, therefore, interested in pursuing certain intentions without necessarily carrying out certain actions. Doing so would allow them to exercise control over North Korea without taking direct responsibility for it. This strategy can be seen as a way for China to “have its cake and eat it too”: on the one hand, it can remain a superpower in the region by assisting Pyongyang in various ways, and on the other hand, it can remain “friendly” to the international community.
Maintaing Peaceful Coexistence
As anyone with an understanding of international relations would tell you, the Korean Peninsula is a particularly delicate global issue. It is in the collective interests of the international community, and especially that of China, to maintain the peaceful coexistence of North and South Korea. To that end, Beijing has taken and will continue to take all the necessary steps to keep the delicate balance between the two sides intact. China’s involvement in North Korea has been justified based on its desire to bring stability to the region, prevent a potentially catastrophic conflict, and protect its inhabitants from widespread suffering.
