In spite of decades of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, up until recently, there was an agreement between North Korea and South Korea not to attack one another. This accord has been broken on a number of occasions, leading to an array of North Korea-initiated hostilities, including attacks and hostile rhetoric. But, why would North Korea go so far as to attack their southern neighbor?
One of the foremost reasons for North Korea to launch an attack against South Korea is to in order to prove their military prowess and deter the influence of foreign powers. North Korea has long been an isolated country and possesses virtually no allies, a fact which causes them to be very wary of foreign countries. In order to protect their autonomy, North Korea often uses threats and exchanges verbal and physical attacks as an intimidation tactic. This can be seen in the past when North Korea has conducted military drills and even tested nuclear weapons in order to propel their own idea of deterrence.
Second, North Korea may be trying to pressure the international community into making concessions or providing aid. By launching an attack, North Korea may be hoping to gain attention and gain an upper hand in negotiations by creating a sense of urgency. This strategy has been used in the past, and in April 2018, North Korea and South Korea agreed to a plan of denuclearization in order to ward off potential aggression.
Third, North Korea may be attempting to show its citizens and its allies that it is a powerful nation and can defend itself. This is an effort to boost the North Korean leader’s legitimacy and make them seem invincible. As noted by experts, North Korea has often conducted aggressive maneuvers in order to increase their public image and standing in the international community.
From a tactical point of view, North Korea also has the advantage of surprise on their side. South Korea is a well-prepared nation that is constantly training and looking out for threats, but they may be ill-prepared for an attack by North Korea. With its relatively small population, North Korea can move quickly and launch an attack before South Korea has time to respond.
Economic Factors
Economic hardship is also a driving factor of North Korean aggression. North Korea lacks many of the natural resources that South Korea enjoys. South Korea also has a much lower poverty line and a higher GDP per capita, which puts them in stark contrast from North Korea. This disparity in wealth can cause North Korea to resent South Korea and their allies, resulting in an increased chance of conflict.
North Korea’s isolation further complicates their economic situation, as the country has few trading partners and is reliant on foreign aid to support its economy. Without foreign investment, North Korea’s economy is struggling. This has had a direct effect on the quality of life for North Korean citizens, making them desperate for change and willing to take drastic measures.
North Korea’s aggressive rhetoric and animosity towards other nations is nothing new. The country has continually threatened South Korea and its allies since the Korean War, claiming the right to use military force in order to protect their sovereignty. This has caused tensions to remain high, and the possibility of conflict to remain unresolved.
Political Factors
The political situation in the Korean Peninsula has been a cause of heightened tensions that could lead to an attack by North Korea. Despite the relative peace in recent years, the North Korean government has been known to publicly criticize South Korea and its allies. The North Korean political leadership has repeatedly called for unification of the two Koreas, by force if necessary.
The North Korean government is also known for its pro-nuclear policies. The country is suspected to possess nuclear weapons and has conducted numerous underground nuclear tests in recent years. This has caused heightened tensions amongst neighbouring countries, and there are concerns that North Korea may use their nuclear weapons to escalate a conflict.
Moreover, the North Korean government has been widely criticized for its human rights violations and its oppressive rule. This could be a contributing factor to the heightened tensions and a reason why North Korea has been aggressive in its rhetoric and hostile to the international community.
Historical Context
The history of the Korean Peninsula also plays a role in the current conflict. The Korean War, which ended in 1953, has been ongoing and tensions have remained high. After the war, a so-called ‘Heavy Equipment War’ took place, during which North Korea and the Chinese government sent troops and supplies in order to topple the South Korean government. This highlighted the country’s aggressive intentions and their willingness to use military force.
North Korea has also been aggressive in the face of other countries’ attempts to influence the Korean Peninsula. In 2017, President Trump of the United States tweeted that North Korea “will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen”, a direct threat meant to dissuade any potential action by North Korea. The country’s response to this was to increase its military deployment and to threaten to attack the United States and South Korea.
International Community
The international community has been instrumental in maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula. The United Nations and other international bodies have enacted various sanctions against North Korea and have been at the forefront of negotiations between the two countries. The United States and South Korea have also deployed troops and military forces in an effort to discourage attacks from North Korea.
Theoretically, the international community could also be a factor in North Korea’s decision to attack South Korea. North Korea may be attempting to send a message to other countries about its military strength and capabilities, demonstrating to them that it can withstand international intervention and will not be easily deterred.
Conclusion
The potential for North Korea to attack South Korea remains a real and pressing concern. Although it is impossible to predict the events leading up to such an attack, there are a number of factors that may be taken into account. The reasons behind a North Korean attack could be economic, political, historical, or a desire to demonstrate military strength. To a certain extent, the current state of the relationship between North and South Korea is also a factor, as the two countries have been isolated from one another since the Korean War. It is clear that the threat of a North Korean attack on South Korea is significant, and it is important that the international community remains vigilant in its efforts to deescalate tensions and maintain peace in the region.
