The question of whether China will support North Korea has become an increasingly complex and important one as of late. With the current global situation regarding North Korea and the US, this question of China’s involvement has become a critical factor. This article will attempt to explain why China have such a degree of influence in the Nations’ relationship and whether they will actually back North Korea in the future.
To begin with, it is important to understand why China has the power to potentially back North Korea: firstly, it can be argued that China is the primary supplier of economic aid for North Korea. For example, in recent years, China has provided almost 90% of North Korea’s imports. In addition, it is clear that China has a greater degree of influence when it comes to trade and economic sanctions imposed on North Korea. Indeed, in the past, China has often been able to blunt the edges of international sanctions directed towards North Korea, in turn allowing the nation to keep its economic opportunities alive.
Furthermore, China appears to hold strong political ties with North Korea. This is evident in the fact that China often leads any international negotiations with the North Korean government in order to de-escalate tensions or discuss potential policy changes. In this sense, it is clear that without the backing of China, it is unlikely North Korean would be able to achieve anything close to its current level of influence or importance.
Nevertheless, while it appears that China currently has the power to back North Korea in the future, this question remains in the realm of speculation and conjecture. China have continually refused to give an exact assessment of their intentions for the future. This has, in part, been due to their policy of non-interference in the internal and domestic affairs of another nation. As such, it is clear that the question of whether China will ultimately back North Korea is still far from certain.
At the same time, however, it must be said that it is possible that China’s intentions could lie on the side of supporting North Korea in the future. This is for a variety of reasons, of which one of the primary ones is that China is concerned about increasing US influence in the region. As such, it could be seen that China are keen to ensure that North Korea remains a viable and independent state, despite the best efforts of the US.
Economic Aid
In this sense, it appears that economic aid is one of the main reasons that China may be willing to back North Korea in the future. For example, given that the US, along with its allies, are currently pushing for more aggressive economic sanctions against North Korea, it is possible that China may use its economic clout to counteract this. Indeed, it has already been seen that China is providing North Korea with much-needed economic assistance and aid in order to keep the nation afloat in difficult times.
At the same time, it has been argued that China also has an interest in maintaining an economically strong North Korea. A strong North Korea is beneficial to Chinese businesses as they are able to trade with the nation without fear of international sanctions or restrictions.
Moreover, it has been argued that China also possesses an ideological interest in North Korea. For political and historical reasons, the Chinese leadership have a vested interest in ensuring North Korea remains an independent nation and one that can stand up to international pressure and aggression.
As such, it appears that China is likely to back North Korea in the future, albeit in a measured way. While it is highly unlikely that China will openly and aggressively support North Korea and its policies, it can be seen that China will use its economic and political clout to ensure the nation is able to survive and retain a certain degree of autonomy.
Policy of Non-Interference
On the other hand, it is also important to note that China’s policy of non-interference in the domestic and political affairs of other countries may be a factor as to why they may not back North Korea in the future. In other words, if they feel that North Korea is behaving in a way that could bring harm to the region, China may choose to distance themselves and not back North Korean policies.
For example, it has been seen that North Korean has recently been involved in numerous military and political escalations with the US, most notably during the period of 2017-2018. Furthermore, the North Korean government has also begun to suppress its people, in the face of increasing US pressure. As such, it is possible that China may choose not to back North Korea in the future in order to ensure that the region remains stable.
In addition, it is possible that China may also choose not to back North Korea in the future in order to maintain a positive relationship with the US. Given the current geo-political situation, China may decide that it is not in their interests to support North Korea, in order to ensure that the US does not become their primary adversary.
All in all, it is clear that the question of whether China will back North Korea in the future is still far from certain. This is due to the complex range of factors at play and the constantly changing geo-political landscape. Nevertheless, it appears that China may opt to back North Korea if they can be assured that they will not threaten regional stability and peace. Furthermore, it is likely that China will continue to provide North Korea with economic assistance in the future, albeit in a limited manner.
Leeway in Sanctions
To conclude, it is also important to note that China may also be willing to provide North Korea with some leeway in dealing with US sanctions. For example, in recent years, China has been able to blunt the edges of international sanctions directed towards North Korea. This has allowed the nation to retain its economic opportunities and, in turn, maintain a degree of independence.
However, in order for China to continue this policy, it is likely that they will demand certain concessions from North Korea in exchange for the aid and assistance that they are providing. This could include the restriction of certain military activities, controls on the movement of their people and even a re-negotiation of their economic policies.
Furthermore, it is also possible that China may demand that North Korea take some greater steps towards improving their human rights record and reforming their government. In this sense, it is likely that China’s level of support for North Korea will be contingent on the degree to which North Korean is willing to comply with international standards.
All things considered, it is clear that the question of whether China will back North Korea in the future is still far from clear. Nevertheless, it is likely that China’s position on the nation will be contingent on North Korea’s own behaviour and its willingness to meet certain international standards. Ultimately, only time will tell as to whether China will back North Korea in the future.
Geo-political Considerations
Overall, it can be seen that there are numerous geo-political considerations that China must take into account when it comes to deciding whether or not to back North Korea. For example, it is likely that China will seek to maintain a stable relationship with the US and its allies, as well as with North Korea. This means that China may choose to provide some assistance to North Korea, while also maintaining a degree of distance in order to avoid becoming embroiled in a possible future conflict.
Alongside this, it is also possible that China may take into consideration their own economic interests when it comes to deciding whether or not to back North Korea. As such, it is likely that China will support North Korea in economic terms, in order to ensure that the nation remains viable and able to conduct trade with China freely.
Finally, it is also possible that China will consider their ideological ties with North Korea. This could include wanting to ensure that North Korea remains an independent nation, free from the influence of the US, as well as to encourage North Korean to take greater steps towards achieving a better human rights record.
In light of this, it is clear that there are numerous factors at play when it comes to the question of whether China will back North Korea in the future. Nevertheless, it appears that China’s support is likely to be contingent on North Korea’s own behaviour, as well as on the willingness of the US and its allies to reach an acceptable and peaceful solution to the current crisis.
Communication
In addition, it is worth noting that China may also use their communication and their public statements to attempt to sway their support for North Korea one way or another. For example, China could use their diplomatic channels to communicate their views and expectations of North Korea, in order to ensure that the nation adheres to certain international standards and laws.
Furthermore, it could also be seen that China could use its media outlets to further its own message in regard to North Korea. For instance, China could use its media outlets to publicise positive news stories about North Korea and its actions, in order to bolster public opinion about the nation and its policies.
In the same vein, it is also possible that China may decide to use its soft power to persuade North Korea to make certain changes. For example, they could use cultural, sport and diplomatic events in order to foster greater conversations and understanding between North Korea and other nations, in order to encourage North Korea to pursue a more peaceful and prosperous future.
Overall, therefore, it is clear that China mayuse a variety of techniques in order to attempt to sway North Korean into making certain changes,while at the same time, also maintaining a degree of support. All in all, it appears that China’s support for North Korea in the future will be contingent on North Korea’s own behaviour, and on their willingness to meet certain international standards and expectations.
International Pressure
Finally, it is also important to note that the international pressure that is placed upon North Korea by the US and its allies will also be an important factor when it comes to deciding whether or not China will back the nation in the future. For example, if the US and its allies continue to pressure and threaten North Korea, it is possible that China will side with North Korea in order to seek a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
Likewise, it is also possible that China will be swayed by international opinion over the North Korean situation. In other words, if the international community agrees that North Korea is not adhering to certain international standards, it is possible that China will also attempt to put pressure on North Korea in order to bring about a peaceful solution.
Furthermore, it is also important to consider the view of other key players in the region. For example, if Japan and South Korea begin to push for tougher sanctions and sanctions relief, it is possible that China could be swayed by their opinion and may provide North Korea with the necessary aid and assistance.
All things considered, it is clear that the international pressure that is placed upon North Korea will also play an important role when it comes to gauging whether China intends to back North Korea in the future. As such, it is important to consider how the other nations in the region view and react to the situation, as well as how China could be influenced by their opinion.
