Background Info
China is North Korea’s closest ally, and their relationship is deeply intertwined. For over 70 years, the two countries have been closely linked by shared cultural, economic and political connections. China has long been a major source of economic and diplomatic support for the North Korean regime. It provides the country with regional stability, is a major trading partner and has consistently requested that North Korea refrain from nuclear proliferation. In recent years, however, as North Korea has become increasingly unpredictable and bellicose, the relationship between the two countries has become strained. Many believe that China holds the key to bringing stability to the region and curtailing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, with potential consequences for the rest of world.
Recent Developments
The recent tensions between China and North Korea have been growing steadily. In late December of 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made an unannounced visit to Beijing and met with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. This was the first visit by Kim to China since he began his rule in 2011. During the visit, the two leaders discussed the resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis. This meeting represented a break from the pattern of public statements and military exercises that had previously characterized their relationship.
Subsequently, China has become increasingly vocal in its criticism of North Korea’s nuclear program and its continued development of missiles. In April 2019, China moved to impose an unprecedented level of economic sanctions on North Korea, banning most of the country’s exports and severing most financial ties. The United Nations Security Council followed this with a unanimous resolution that imposed an even greater set of international sanctions on the North Korean regime.
Potential Outcomes
It is unclear what will ultimately happen as a result of China’s intervention in the North Korean crisis. Some argue that China’s increasing pressure on North Korea is likely to lead to a reduction in tensions and ultimately a resolution of the crisis. Others are less optimistic, and fear that this could escalate tensions and provoke a military confrontation, especially if North Korea interprets the sanctions as a sign of aggression.
At the same time, some argue that China’s influence, while considerable, is not enough to resolve the crisis. They point out that China does not have the same level of control over the North Korean regime that it once did and that other regional actors, such as South Korea and Japan, also have an important role to play in any resolution.
Political Implications
If China is successful in curbing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, it could have implications for the power balance in the region. There is a risk that a resolution of the crisis could strengthen China’s position in the region and weaken that of the United States and its allies. This could have significant implications for both regional and global security.
At the same time, many argue that the long-term resolution of the North Korean crisis is in China’s interests. A conflict in the Korean Peninsula could spread instability to the region, threatening both China’s security and its economic interests.
Experts’ Opinions
There is no consensus amongst experts on the potential outcome of China’s efforts to restrain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Some argue that China holds the key to resolving the crisis and that its pressure on the North Korean regime could be decisive. Others point out that China’s influence is limited and that the situation is far from straightforward.
Speaking to the BBC, Professor Paul Yong-Soo Cho, a specialist in international security from the Korea University in Seoul, said: “China’s power over North Korea cannot be underestimated, but it is not as strong as it once was. It is true that economic sanctions from Beijing could be an effective way to pressure North Korea. But if these sanctions aren’t effective, then it is unlikely that China will be able to resolve the crisis on its own.”
Economic Impact
The potential economic ramifications of increased pressure on North Korea are also difficult to predict. The sanctions imposed by China could lead to significant economic hardship in North Korea, with the potential to further destabilize the regime. On the other hand, if successful, they could lead to the re-integration of North Korea into the global economy, creating new opportunities for economic growth and long-term prosperity.
Speaking to Reuters, Loredana Zardo, an economist at the Asian Development Bank, suggested that increased pressure on North Korea could lead to both positive and negative economic outcomes:
“On the one hand, increased sanctions could lead to an economic downturn in North Korea. But on the other hand, if these sanctions lead to a resolution of the nuclear crisis, then this could open up the country to foreign investment, creating economic opportunities in the region.”
International Reactions
The increasing pressure from China on North Korea has been met with both relief and scepticism from the international community. Countries such as the United States and Japan have welcomed the increased pressure on North Korea and have expressed hope that it will ultimately lead to a resolution of the crisis. Other countries, such as Russia, have expressed scepticism that these measures can have a decisive impact.
Speaking to The Washington Post, Valentina Akaeva, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said that the international community should remain cautiously optimistic:
“China is playing an increasingly important role in the North Korean crisis, and its sanctions could be an effective way to pressure the country. But the reality is that there are still many unknowns, and it is unclear whether these measures will have the desired effect.”
Analysis and Insight
China’s intervention in the North Korean crisis is a complex situation with potentially far-reaching consequences. On the one hand, China is in a unique position to influence the North Korean regime and could ultimately lead to a resolution of the crisis. On the other hand, it is unclear whether the pressure from Beijing is sufficient to sway the North Koreans, and whether the situation could escalate into a military conflict.
Regardless of the potential outcome, it is clear that China’s actions are having a major impact on the region. As the most powerful actor in the region, China has the potential to shape the future of the Korean Peninsula and beyond.
Military Options
Given the risks associated with continuing economic and diplomatic pressure on North Korea, many have speculated about the possibility of a military intervention by China.
Proponents of military intervention argue that it would be an effective way to contain the North Korean regime and ultimately resolve the nuclear crisis. They point out that China has the capacity to rapidly deploy troops to the region and that it could provide a stabilizing presence for the region.
Opponents, however, point out that a military intervention by China would be extraordinarily risky. Any kind of foreign military presence in North Korea would likely be met with hostility, while the potential consequences of an escalation of military tensions in the region would be unpredictable and potentially catastrophic.
International Cooperation
The situation put forward by China in North Korea is one which necessitates an international effort. The Australian National Security College suggests that all major international actors – including China, the US, South Korea and Japan – need to work together to reach a resolution.
Rewards to North Korea should be offered by the international community in exchange for compliance, while those countries that fail to comply need to face meaningful consequences. These may include the strengthening of existing economic sanctions and the implementation of measures such as travel restrictions and asset freezes.
In addition, it is important that all parties are able to communicate effectively, and that there is a shared understanding of the objectives and consequences of the various actions. To this end, international dialogue and cooperation is essential.
Alternative Solutions
Beyond military intervention and economic sanctions, there are a number of alternative solutions that have been suggested for stabilizing the situation in North Korea.
One suggestion is the establishment of a “buffer zone” in the Korean Peninsula. This would involve an agreement between China and other regional powers, whereby North Korea would be denied access to weapons of mass destruction and the pursuit of military power.
Another suggestion is to encourage reconciliation between North and South Korea. Many believe that the process of reconciliation could lead to a normalization of relations, potentially easing tensions between North Korea and the US and other powers.
Impact on the Region
The potential long-term implications of China’s pressure on North Korea are unpredictable, but it is clear that the situation has the potential to impact the entire region and beyond.
If a resolution of the crisis is not achieved, then the tensions could easily escalate beyond the Korean Peninsula. This would have a destabilizing effect on the region, creating a situation of insecurity and possibly leading to a military conflict.
On the other hand, if a peaceful resolution is reached, then it could open the way for greater economic growth and prosperity in the East Asian region. An easing of tensions would also encourage foreign investment, paving the way for a new era of regional cooperation.
