Background Information
The current state of North Korea is shrouded in mystery, but it may be an interesting exercise to predict what might happen to the country in 2022. North Korea is the closest example of a true Stalinist state and is the only one of its kind in the world. It is ruled by the Kim dynasty and is extremely isolated from the rest of the world. North Korea’s economy is highly state-controlled and is largely reliant on external aid and trade. For decades, they have been crippled by international sanctions and have seen their economy suffer substantially. As a result, the poverty rate in North Korea is exceptionally high, with most North Koreans living in complete destitution and without access to basic necessities. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to suggest that the country could collapse under its own weight in the coming years due to the lack of resources and an inability to sustain the demands of its population.
Relevant Data
A deeper look at the data supports the idea that North Korea could collapse in 2022. Their GDP per capita is estimated to be around $1,800 – $2,000 in 2020, making them one of the poorest countries in the world. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that 40% of the population is food insecure. This means that nearly half of the population does not have access to adequate nutrition and are unable to secure enough food for sustenance. The government is also known to have diverted much of the resources towards the military, resulting in a standing army of more than a million people. This is more than the population of North Korea’s neighbor, South Korea.
Experts’ Perspectives
The expert community is divided on the risk of North Korea collapsing in 2022. Some argue that North Korea’s current situation, with its oppressive regime and limited international connections, will likely contribute to its downfall by 2022. The country’s lack of transparency and dire economic situation, combined with its over-burdened military, have all put a strain on the country’s resources. Others, however, argue that North Korea’s dictatorial regime has been able to survive multiple crises, and that the current leadership is likely to stay in power for the foreseeable future regardless of the economic situation.
Analysis and Insights
Although it is impossible to make a definitive prediction of North Korea’s future in 2022, there are multiple factors which suggest that the regime will be unsustainable in the long-term. With an ever-growing population and the lack of available resources, North Korea may find itself in a downward spiral which could culminate in its collapse by 2022. This is significantly compounded by the oppressive and tyrannical regime, which has all but destroyed the country’s economy. Furthermore, the lack of international contact has cut the country off from any potential aid or assistance, meaning that the economic crisis is likely to be prolonged and increasingly difficult to manage in the coming years.
Social and Political Unrest
Social and political unrest has been on the rise in North Korea in the past few years, particularly in 2020, as a result of the economic crisis and government mismanagement. There have been reports of public protests against the government, usually with little to no coverage by the media. This indicates that the public is increasingly dissatisfied with the government and is not afraid to express it, illustrating an erosion of the regime’s authority. This could also be indicative of a looming collapse as the pressure on the government mounts and the people’s will is more difficult to suppress.
International Relations
North Korea’s relationships with international actors remain strained and volatile. North Korea continues to pursue its nuclear program despite international condemnation and is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. This hostility with the world has led to even tighter economic sanctions, further crippling the already devastated economy. Furthermore, its relationship with China and other neighboring countries has deteriorated rapidly, as these countries increasingly become aware of the regime’s human rights abuses and belligerent attitude towards foreign affairs.
Tightened Sanctions
International sanctions on North Korea have tightened in the past few years, resulting in significant economic losses for the country. In 2020, the UN Security Council imposed the “toughest ever” sanctions on the country, banning the sale of fuel, furniture and other goods believed to be used for the country’s military or nuclear program. This has further exacerbated the poverty crisis and is likely to result in a further downturn in the economy in the coming years.
Political Change
The current regime in North Korea is widely widely criticized for its oppressive and autocratic nature, but there have been recent signs that this could change in the coming years. In 2019, Kim Jong-Un announced a ‘new era’ for the country, which was intended to signal a shift to a more open and liberal society. Since then, there have been some positive developments, such as the improvements of women’s rights and the loosening of censorship. However, there is still a long way to go in terms of achieving meaningful changes in North Korea.
Infrastructure Investment
One of the most noticeable impacts of the current North Korean regime is the lack of investment in infrastructure. This has resulted in many of the country’s roads and buildings falling into disrepair and has also limited access to essential services such as healthcare and education. North Korea also lacks modern technology, such as the internet and telecommunications, which is essential to any functioning economy. Despite the government’s recent efforts to improve the infrastructure, it is unlikely that this alone will be enough to sustain the ailing economy in the long-term.
The Impact of South Korea
The state of North Korea’s economy could be greatly improved by the involvement of its southern neighbor, South Korea. South Korea has a strong economy and could potentially aid the country in times of crisis. South Korea has already made some investments into North Korea, but there is room for more cooperation and investment, which could boost North Korea’s economic prospects significantly.
Regime Change
The longevity of North Korea’s current regime is unclear, and this is likely to have a huge impact on the country’s future. The death of Kim Jong-un and the lack of an obvious successor could potentially result in a political and economic power struggle, which would likely further push the country into chaos and instability. Alternatively, the emergence of a new leader with a more liberal and cooperative attitude could dramatically improve the country’s prospects.
International Aid
The international community has a crucial role to play in North Korea’s future. The international community can provide North Korea with economic, financial and political support to help them strengthen their economy and provide for their population. The international community can provide support through grants, loans and humanitarian aid. This support could help provide much-needed resources to the country, as well as open the door to further investment, which may result in the long-term sustainability of the state.
Conclusion
At this time, it is impossible to make a definitive prediction of what will happen to North Korea in the coming years. However, it is clear that North Korea’s situation is precarious, and the regime’s grip on power may be unsustainable in the long-term. It is also clear that the regime is not adequately addressing the economic crisis and that it is unlikely to be able to cope with the long-term demands of its population. It is therefore reasonable to suggest that, unless drastic changes are made, North Korea could collapse in 2022.
