North Korea’s Military Strength
It is no secret that North Korea poses a major security threat to South Korea and the world. With a formidable nuclear arsenal and advanced long-range missile technology, North Korea has become a serious security concern in the region. The isolated country has a proven track record of testing and developing its weapons capabilities despite international condemnation. This raises the question: will North Korea nuke South Korea?
In recent years, North Korea has been increasingly making advances in its nuclear capabilities. In 2017, the UN reported that North Korea had launched 11 missiles tests. Between April 28, 2017 and August 29, 2017, North Korea conducted 22 ballistic missile tests. More significantly, on November 29, 2017, the North Korean government launched ballistic missile that flew 435 miles at a maximum altitude of 2,800 kilometers before hitting its target in the Sea of Japan. According to an article from The New York Times, this test was “the farthest and by far the most impressive” test launch in North Korea’s history.
The country is believed to have a stockpile of around 30 to 60 nuclear warheads, making it the seventh-largest nuclear weapons state in the world. North Korea has also conducted five nuclear tests since 2006, with the largest yield recorded in 2017 estimated to be between 100 and 250 kilotons, making it far more powerful than the bombs exploded by the United States in Japan during World War II.
Despite international sanctions and condemnation, North Korea has not only continued to expand its nuclear power capabilities but to also threaten use of nuclear weapons against its adversaries. In 2017, the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, declared that his country now had the capability to reach the entire United States with a nuclear weapon. Earlier this year, Kim Jong-un also said that North Korea would mass produce ballistic missiles in 2018, adding to their already formidable arsenal.
Given North Korea’s demonstrated advancement in nuclear technology and its belligerent statements, experts are concerned that the country is a real and present danger to peace. North Korea has also been openly hostile to South Korea, showing no signs of being open to diplomacy and negotiations. This has raised the question, yet again, will North Korea nuke South Korea?
South Korea’s Defense System
Despite the growing nuclear threat from North Korea, South Korea is not leaving anything to chance. The country has been working hard to build its defense system and reduce the possibility of an attack from its northern neighbor.
South Korea has a comprehensive military structure that includes a well-trained standing army of 600,000 personnel and a reserve of 5.3 million personnel ready to be mobilized if necessary. South Korea also has an advanced missile defense system consisting of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) system. Both systems are designed to intercept short and medium range missiles from North Korea.
The South Korean military also has access to advanced military technology from the United States. American troops have been stationed in South Korea since the Korean War and the two countries have a mutual defense agreement designed to protect South Korea from aggression from North Korea. South Korea has also been improving its intelligence organization, National Intelligence Service (NIS), which is tasked with gathering information on North Korea’s military capabilities and movements.
Overall, South Korea is well-equipped to defend itself from any attack from North Korea. However, this has only further raised the question, will North Korea still attempt to attack South Korea even with South Korea’s formidable defense system in place?
Will North Korea Attack South Korea?
Given the current security situation and North Korea’s demonstrated advancement in its nuclear arsenal, a nuclear strike by North Korea against South Korea is a distinct possibility. However, experts believe that a full scale war between the two countries is unlikely.
A nuclear attack by North Korea on South Korea would be devastating, with South Korea being completely destroyed. This would also have a disastrous effect on the global economy and cause international uproar. The North Korean government is aware of this reality and realizes that it would not gain any benefit from a nuclear attack on South Korea.
Most experts believe that North Korea is more likely to deploy its nuclear weapons as a strategic negotiation tactic rather than actually use it against South Korea. North Korea is dependent on foreign trade, aid and diplomatic relations with other countries and a full scale war with South Korea would put an end to all of this. Therefore, it is more likely that North Korea would use its nuclear capabilities as a way to put pressure on other countries for more concessions.
Recent Developments
In recent months, the security situation on the Korean peninsula has seen a dramatic improvement. The leaders of North and South Korea have met three times this year and are now engaged in negotiations to denuclearize the peninsula and improve diplomatic relations. The meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump in June 2018 was also a major event.
The US and North Korea have now signed a joint statement outlining the framework for a potential denuclearization agreement. While this is a major breakthrough in the security situation in the region, doubts persist about North Korea’s commitment to keep its promises.
International Reactions
The international community has cautiously welcomed the recent developments in the Korean Peninsula but is still wary of North Korea’s intentions. Many countries fear that North Korea may use its nuclear program as leverage in its dealings with the US and other countries and are thus reluctant to lift sanctions and provide economic aid to North Korea.
At the same time, other countries have welcomed the recent negotiations between North and South Korea and hope that these will lead to lasting peace and stability in the region. The UN has also welcomed the recent negotiations and is hopeful that the two countries can find a way to peacefully resolve their differences.
The Challenges Ahead
The current security situation in the Korean Peninsula is a major cause for concern. Despite the recent breakthroughs in US-North Korea relations, doubts remain about North Korea’s commitment to denuclearization and its willingness to reach a peaceful resolution to the tensions in the region.
The future of the Korean Peninsula hinges on the negotiations. North Korea must demonstrate that it is serious about denuclearization and take concrete steps to reduce tensions. Only then can lasting peace and stability be achieved in the region.
The Implications
The security situation in the Korean Peninsula has a direct impact on the wider region and the world. A nuclear armed North Korea poses a major threat to peace and stability in the region and could potentially spark a full-scale conflict.
At the same time, the current tensions between North Korea and the US are having a major impact on the global economy. The US is the largest economy in the world, and a disruption in its relations with North Korea could have far-reaching economic implications.
The Need for Diplomacy
It is clear that the current security situation in the Korean Peninsula needs to be addressed through diplomatic means. This will require strong leadership from both North Korea and the US to reach an understanding and a peaceful resolution to the insecurity in the region.
It is time for both sides to put aside their differences and work towards a diplomatic solution. Only then can lasting peace and stability be achieved in the region and the wider world.
