Background Information
North Korea is a small and isolated nation located in East Asia, bordering Russia and China. It is one of the world’s last remaining communist countries and is ruled by an oppressive and authoritarian regime led by Kim Jong-un. Since the end of the Korean War, North Korea has remained hostile towards the West and its allies, and in recent years, tensions have increased significantly due to its advancing nuclear programme and the United Nations Security Council’s imposition of economic sanctions.
In April 2017, North Korea conducted its sixth underground nuclear test and hinted that ‘it would not rule out the possibility of war’ if the United States and other countries continued to increase the pressure on the country. Since then, the international community has been concerned about the possibility of North Korea triggering a global conflict by launching a missile strike on either Japan, South Korea or the US, or by ‘accidentally’ detonating a nuclear warhead over international waters.
Relevant Data
Recent reports suggest that North Korea now has the capability to launch ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. Furthermore, the government claim that they are now able to miniaturize these weapons and mount them on missiles. It has also been estimated that the country currently possesses eight to twenty nuclear warheads, although these numbers may be higher since North Korea has refused to disclose information about its nuclear capabilities.
As if this were not worrying enough, there is also evidence of increased cooperation between North Korea and other hostile nations such as Iran and Syria. This could mean that North Korea could provide assistance or technology to these countries in order to help them to increase their own nuclear stockpiles, which could then be used to launch attacks on other nations.
Expert Perspectives
Many experts believe that the current tensions between North Korea and the West have reached a point of no return and that the possibility of war is now very real. Speaking to CNN in May 2018, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that ‘there is an unmistakable danger that North Korea could trigger a war.’ In addition, many analysts have argued that North Korea will not be deterred from its ambitions by diplomatic means, given its history of resisting international pressure.
Meanwhile, some experts have argued that a war is not inevitable and that negotiations could still be used to prevent a conflict. Speaking to the BBC in May 2018, Chinese diplomat Wu Dawei argued that ‘the international community should try and continue with dialogue and engage North Korea in order to find a peaceful solution to this crisis.’
Analysis and Insights
The current situation with North Korea is extremely worrying, given the fact that the country now has the capabilities to launch nuclear weapons and is ignoring international pressure. North Korea’s belligerent attitude and its recent increasing cooperation with other hostile nations further exacerbates the situation.
It is clear that North Korea intends to develop its nuclear programme and believes that it can catalyse a war with another country in order to gain leverage over the international community. This means that the possibility of North Korea sparking a global conflict cannot be ruled out.
At the same time, it is important to remember that North Korea is a rational actor, and that the country is likely aware of the consequences of launching a nuclear weapons strike. As such, the nation could still be kept in check by diplomatic means, though there is no guarantee that this approach will be successful.
China’s Role
China is by far the most important nation in terms of mediating the situation between North Korea and the West. As the main trading partner of North Korea, China is in a unique position to influence the direction of diplomatic efforts and help to bring an end to the current stand-off.
In this regard, China appears to be taking a cautious approach and has so far resisted calls to impose crippling economic sanctions on North Korea. Instead, the country has adopted a softer stance, focusing on finding a diplomatic solution and attempting to mediate between the two sides.
Nonetheless, there are doubts about how effective China’s approach will be, given the fact that North Korea has proven to be uncooperative in the past. Furthermore, there is a possibility that China may be reluctant to take a tougher stance, given the fact that North Korea serves as a buffer between it and US-allied South Korea.
The US’ Response
The United States has traditionally taken a hard-line against North Korea, and is committed to ensuring that the country is prevented from further developing its nuclear capabilities. In this regard, the US has imposed a variety of economic sanctions on North Korea and has also warned that ‘all options are on the table’ when it comes to defending its interest and those of its allies.
The US has also been increasing its military presence in the region and recently conducted joint exercises in South Korea in an effort to show North Korea that it is serious about defending its interests. However, many experts fear that this approach could be counter-productive, given North Korea’s tendency to respond to threats with belligerent rhetoric and action.
Russia’s Involvement
Russia has traditionally maintained close ties with North Korea and is an important mediator in the situation, given the two countries’ close relationship. Recently, Russia has taken a leading role in finding a diplomatic solution and has proposed a ‘freeze for freeze’ plan, whereby North Korea would freeze its nuclear programme in exchange for an end to US-led military exercises in South Korea.
However, this proposal has been met with suspicion from the US and its allies, who fear that such a plan would be ineffective and could even embolden North Korea. Furthermore, there have been reports that suggest that Russia may have been covertly assisting the North Korean regime, providing the country with technology and resources which could be used to further its nuclear weapons programme.
United Nations’ Intervention
The United Nations has been encouraging a diplomatic solution to the crisis, though it has so far been reluctant to take a stronger stance. This is in part due to the fact that the UN Security Council is divided over the issue, given the fact that China and Russia are both opposed to the imposition of tough economic sanctions on North Korea.
Furthermore, the UN has been frustrated by the lack of progress in negotiations despite its mediation efforts. In May 2018, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres lamented that ‘we have not seen the desired result yet.’ In the meantime, the UN has urged all parties involved in the crisis to pursue peaceful dialogue and avoid any actions that could lead to a military conflict.
