How Relationships between Russia and North Korea have evolved
As the two countries have maintained close ties for many years and recently celebrated 70 years of diplomatic relations, it is important to take a look at the history of the relationship between Russia and North Korea. After the fall of the Soviet Union, their ties became much closer and more consolidated and in 2001, the two countries established official diplomatic ties. This warm relationship has been further strengthened over the past years, with various visits from senior officials from both countries and bilateral trade agreements that contribute to the mutual and intensive interaction between the two countries.
Russia and North Korea have cooperated in many areas, such as nuclear energy and medical research, in addition to exchanging cultural exchanges. In 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian president Vladimir Putin met for the first time and both sides noted their interest in increasing economic cooperation. In 2019, the duo met again, with Putin discussing sanctions relief with Kim and, at the same time, both acknowledged the importance of the trust-building process between their countries.
As both countries are keen to strengthen their relationship further and increase economic cooperation, one of the questions many are asking is whether they will support each other if required.
Implications of Strengthening of Ties between Russia and North Korea
The further strengthening of ties between Russia and North Korea has the potential to have major implications globally. Firstly, in terms of the security situation in the region, improved relations between the two countries could help reduce tensions in Northeast Asia. For example, Russia could help mediate between North Korea and South Korea in trying to bring peace to the region. Additionally, stronger ties between the two countries could bolster Russia’s presence in the region which is important for its strategic interests.
Secondly, closer cooperation between Russia and North Korea could help create a more secure nuclear environment in the region. Russia could help North Korea by ensuring it has access to the necessary materials and services it requires to maintain its nuclear weapons programme and nuclear power plants. This could help maintain the non-proliferation norms of the region, as the two countries work together on the development of nuclear technology in a safe and secure manner.
Lastly, the two countries could collaborate in areas such as energy, transport and science and technology, which could be beneficial to both countries. Russia could provide North Korea with much needed energy, as well as access to its advanced technology which North Korea can utilize for its own economic development.
Will North Korea Support Russia in Return?
Although it can be argued that Russia and North Korea have very close ties and cooperation in many areas, it can also be argued that North Korea is unlikely to support Russia if required. Whilst it is true that North Korea has benefitted from the relationship with Russia in various ways, there is no guarantee that North Korea will support Russia if needed and given that it is largely an isolated country, North Korea will continue to be cautious when it comes to its foreign relations. Likewise, Russia is unlikely to offer unconditional support to North Korea, given its strategic interests in the region and understanding of North Korea’s political situation.
Moreover, it is also unlikely that North Korea will risk damaging its relationship with either the United States or China by supporting Russia, as both countries are crucial for maintaining North Korea’s security. North Korea will also be reluctant to support Russia in any official capacity as any kind of assistance, overt or covert, could lead to it being placed under further sanctions from the international community. In this regard, it is more likely that North Korea and Russia will continue to cooperate in areas such as energy and trade and that North Korea will not extend its support to Russia in any other capacity.
Other Perspectives on the Relationship between Russia and North Korea
Despite the various implications of the relationship between Russia and North Korea, there are other perspectives which are often ignored. For example, it is important to recognize that there is a lot of economic interaction between the two countries which is beneficial to both. The warmer ties between Russia and North Korea have led to an increase in trade between the two countries and this has resulted in Russia providing North Korea with much needed resources including oil and gas.
At present, North Korea receives about five percent of its oil and gas from Russia, whereas Russian imports from North Korea are mostly agricultural products such as rice, processed foods and seafood. This kind of trade is beneficial to both countries as North Korea receives resources it needs and Russia gains access to resources and products from North Korea. However, critics argue that such trade is still far from reaching its full potential, given the restrictions imposed by international sanctions on North Korea.
Is North Korea Trying to Distance Itself from China?
As the relationship between North Korea and Russia has become closer, some have expressed concern that North Korea is slowly trying to distance itself from China, its only ally. It is likely that North Korea is doing this because it feels more comfortable forming closer relations with Russia than with China, due to the strong historical ties between the two countries.
In addition, North Korea may also be trying to diversify its alliances and reduce its reliance on China in terms of economic and political support. This is because North Korea has often relied heavily on China for its security and economic needs and North Korea’s attempts to build closer ties with Russia could be seen as the country trying to diversify its strategic options.
However, despite the possibility of North Korea diversifying its alliances, it is unlikely that this will lead to a weakening of the relationship between North Korea and China. This is because China is still the country’s only major ally and chief economic partner, and it will remain so in the foreseeable future.
Does Russia See North Korea as a Politically Important Ally?
Given the growing economic ties between Russia and North Korea, it is clear that Russia views North Korea as an important partner in terms of trade and commerce. However, does Russia also view North Korea as a politically important ally?
It is possible that Russia does see North Korea as an important ally in its foreign policy, as the closer relations between the two countries could help Russia build up its presence in the region. This could allow Russia to gain leverage in any negotiations with other countries in the region, as well as strengthen its security interests.
At the same time, Russia may also see North Korea as an important partner in its attempts to challenge the dominance of Western powers in the region. Russia and North Korea have both been subject to international sanctions over the last few years and they could coordinate to challenge the sanctions and regain the power they have lost.
Has the Relationship between North Korea and Russia Improved Diplomatic Relations?
The strengthening of ties between North Korea and Russia has the potential to improve diplomatic relations in the region, but it is not clear if this is being achieved. Whilst it is true that the two countries have gotten closer and have been engaging in various trade activities, it is difficult to quantify how this has improved diplomatic relations in the region.
That being said, it is possible that a closer relationship between North Korea and Russia could lead to better relations with South Korea. This could be beneficial for the security of the region, as it could lead to direct talks between North and South Korean officials, potentially resulting in the defusing of tensions in the region.
It is also possible that Russia could become a mediator between North and South Korea and other countries in the region, as Russia has close ties with North Korea and is seen as a neutral party between North and South Korea. This could potentially lead to more trust between the countries involved and lead to a better understanding of each other’s positions.
Are Sanctions Impeding the Relationship between North Korea and Russia?
Whilst it is possible that the closer relationship between North Korea and Russia could improve diplomatic relations in the region and help reduce tensions between North and South Korea, it is also possible that international sanctions imposed on North Korea are restricting the economic ties between the two countries.
Given that international sanctions have severely hampered North Korea’s economy, it is likely that the sanctions have led to a decrease in the amount of trade between North Korea and Russia. This could have wider implications, as it could restrict the amount of resources and partners available to North Korea.
Moreover, the sanctions are also likely to restrict the level of investment from Russia into North Korea’s economy, as investors may still be hesitant to invest in North Korea due to the uncertainty posed by the sanctions and North Korea’s unpredictable political situation.
Will the Relationship between North Korea and Russia Continue to Grow?
It is difficult to predict whether the relationship between North Korea and Russia will turn into one based on unconditional support. Although it is true that the two countries now have a very close relationship, it is also true that North Korea is still largely an isolated country and will be cautious when it comes to its foreign relations.
In addition, both countries have their own strategic interests in the region, meaning they may not always align with one another. Furthermore, the international sanctions imposed on North Korea are likely to impede any further growth in the economic relationship between the two countries.
Overall, it is likely that the relationship between Russia and North Korea will continue to grow, as the two countries benefit from close economic ties and cooperation. However, it is unlikely that the two countries will become political allies, as both countries have their own strategic interests in the region and North Korea is unlikely to risk damaging its relationship with either the United States or China by supporting Russia.
