Will Russia Help North Korea?
Recent actions by Russia and North Korea have highlighted the revived friendship between the two nations, leaving many wondering if Russia would come to North Korea’s aid if needed. While, the two nations have had a historically strained relationship, it appears that they are making efforts to come closer financially, diplomatically, and even militarily. North Korea’s increased isolation has been of particular interest to Russia and greater efforts to bolster the state have been made. There are still serious doubts over whether Russia would be willing to provide support to North Korea in any kind of military conflict, let alone an open war.
Recent meetings between Russian officials and North Korean officials have given credibility to the growing partnership between the two countries. North Korea’s foreign minister Ri Yong Ho met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow in June 2019. After the meeting, minister Lavrov stated that Russia supports and would “continue to cooperate in several areas of mutual interest.” Both nations have been making public efforts to grow their relationship, with North Korea’s state-run media announcing that Lavrov was “deeply impressed by the remarkable efforts being made by the North Korean people” towards improving their economy.
However, despite the recent meetings, it is still unclear whether Russia would be willing or able to help North Korea if it finds itself in a conflict with the U.S. or its allies. “Russia’s attitude towards North Korea is carefully measured,” professor of Russian and East-Asian studies, Janet W. Steele observed. “Russia is not likely to respond to North Korea’s provocations militarily and thus risk both its hard won trade ties with South Korea and its still tense relations with its neighbor Japan.”
It seems both Russia and North Korea have a “common interest in returning to the negotiating table and continue dialogue.” But realpolitik dictates that Russia also needs to keep its ties with its neighbors in the region and political analyst Tetsuro Kato has pointed out that “at this stage of its diplomatic reorientation Russia cannot afford to be perceived as a reckless troublemaker on the Korean Peninsula” and cannot afford to alienate the U.S., South Korea or Japan by helping North Korea in a conflict.
The other areas of economic and military cooperation between the two countries have caused some concern. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Russia-North Korea military ties are modest but symbolically important… Russia’s engagement sends a signal to the U.S. and its allies about Russia’s unwillingness to accept ‘hegemonic’ policies of the United States.” Nonetheless, some experts are still of the opinion that Russia is unlikely to get involved militarily if North Korea were attacked.
Will War Break Out?
Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea have been high in recent years, and while North Korea’s nuclear program remains a major concern, there is no indication that war is imminent. In fact, U.S. President Donald Trump has taken a more measured and cautious approach towards North Korea, using diplomacy and dialogue instead of a military response.
Still, the possibility of war remains and it is not clear what Russia’s stance would be in such a situation. Though Russia may not take part in any direct military confrontation with the U.S. or its allies, it could still provide support to North Korea in its efforts to resist. Russian aid could play a crucial role in helping North Korea to maintain its current power and reach a diplomatic resolution with the U.S.
Russian economic and military aid to North Korea has been limited so far, but with the deepening of ties between the two countries, it is possible that this could change in the future. With both countries now looking to increase their own political clout in the region and on the world stage, it is likely that the Russian-North Korean partnership will only grow stronger in the coming years.
How Might Russia Aid North Korea?
It’s unclear what kind of military aid Russia may offer to North Korea in the event of a conflict with American and allied forces, but analysts believe that the most likely scenario would be limited support of a logistical, financial, or technical nature. North Korea is largely isolated and heavily sanctioned, so any economic lifelines from Russia that can provide the regime with critical resources may be greatly appreciated by the North Korean leadership.
Russia is already providing some support in the form of energy, providing North Korea with oil and gas for their energy needs. Russia is also reported to be constructing up to three railway lines that would connect North Korea with Russia. Military support, though less likely, is also possible. “There is speculation that the Kremlin could step in to bolster North Korea’s aging military equipment and provide training,” observes James Clay Moltz, Professor at the US Naval Postgraduate School.
Furthermore, many observers believe that Russia could be an important broker in mediating any negotiations between North Korea and the U.S.. Russia’s close relationships with both countries, along with its strong diplomatic presence in the region, could prove to be instrumental in helping the two sides to reach an understanding.
The Human Factors
In spite of Russia’s economic and military support, North Koreans continue to suffer from hardship and poverty. Over a million people are estimated to have died from a famine in the late 1990s, while a lack of access to basic healthcare and education continues to be a major problem. International pressure on North Korea is unlikely to be relieved if Russia continues to provide aid, and so far it appears that the Kremlin is more focused on its own strategic interests, rather than the wellbeing of North Koreans.
Many experts believe that North Korea will not be able to make significant progress until it commits to reforms and makes a genuine effort to alleviate the suffering of its citizens. This, in turn, will require more cooperation with its neighbours and the international community. In that sense, Russia’s role in providing support or advancing negotiations might be critical in helping North Korea to find a path towards a brighter future for its people.
Sanctions & Arms Control
Russia is a member of the UN Security Council, and with its increasing ties to North Korea it may play a role in mitigating the intensity of many of the economic sanctions that have been imposed on the regime. Russian officials have already spoken out in favour of lifting or reducing international sanctions on North Korea that have stifled growth and development. Furthermore, Russia has recently shown interest in the possibility of ratifying the START nuclear arms control treaty with North Korea, a move seen to reduce tensions.
The possibility of a nuclear exchange is one of the great fears when it comes to tensions between North Korea and the United States. Ratifying the START treaty with North Korea would be an important step in both reducing tensions and avoiding escalation. While it remains to be seen whether North Korea would be willing to accept such a treaty, Russia’s involvement could prove to be instrumental in ensuring a reduction in nuclear tensions.
Conclusion
The situation between North Korea and the United States remains fluid and could easily break out into open conflict. Russia’s involvement in the situation is not certain, but the Kremlin is unlikely to risk being dragged into a confrontation between the two sides. While Russia may be providing some economic, military, and diplomatic support to North Korea, it is unlikely to be willing to intervene in the event of an open conflict. Nonetheless, Russia’s cooperation could prove to be instrumental in helping to maintain peace or mediating future talks between the two sides, provided it betters its relationship with both the United States and the other countries in the region.
