Will There Be War In North Korea
At first glance, it seems the two Koreas – North and South – have been at perpetual tension. Since 1949, the two nations have been divided along the 38th parallel, by the end of the Korean War, without a peace treaty or ceasefire. But why is the world now fearful of conflict erupting in North Korea following its recent nuclear and missile tests?
North Korea, also known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), is led by the Kim dynasty. It is a highly secretive state, isolated from much of the world with repressive natural resources and governance. Its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles threaten the security of its neighboring competitors in the region, such as South Korea and Japan.
It is well known that North Korea has been advancing its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Recently, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un tested an intercontinental missile (Hwasong-15) capable of reaching the United States mainland. This has raised alarm in the international community leading to increased security measures, as well as more diplomatic engagements.
Experts on North Korean affairs, however, argue there is no “imminent risk” of a conflict erupting in the region. In fact, they go as far as to say, without a doubt, that North Korea does not want war and instead seeks to establish economic partnerships, especially with South Korea and the US. This is a testament to the North Korean leadership’s strategic vision: through establishing strong bilateral ties, it will be able to gain more bargaining power, eventually leading to its international recognition.
So then the burning question remains: why can’t the international community come to an agreement on cooperation with North Korea? To many, the answer is simple. It is the latter’s violating UN Security Council Resolutions that ban it from developing nuclear and ballistic missile tests.
Many consider the US-North Korean relations a major factor in this issue. US President Donald Trump has publicly stated his willingness to meet Kim Jong Un in person. Although such a move may bridge some gaps between the two nations, it is highly unlikely to bring about peace or a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
The answer to the question “Will there be war in North Korea?” may be a indefinite “no”. As unlikely as it seems, the outlook of peace is possible if conflict resolution is found in an unorthodox way. While North Korea’s weapons have led to fear around the world, its underlying political stance has not proven as hostile.
Other Factors at Play
It is important to take into account other factors that may influence the outcome of a potential war in North Korea, such as the North-South Korean relations and the Chinese involvement in the matter. The South Korean government has endorsed the Moon Jae-in’s policy of “peaceful engagement” with the North, which serves to ease the relations between the two nations. Additionally, China has also taken steps to reduce tensions by urging the involved parties to reach a compromise.
This being said, there is still an undeniable sense of militarism surrounding the situation. North Korea has consistently shown no intention of trading its weapons for greater security and economic benefits, making current diplomatic efforts appear difficult to achieve. The question is whether the current regime’s rhetoric of intimidation and aggressive posturing will lead to a military conflict – for which there is no clear answer yet.
It is no surprise then, that several experts around the world fear North Korea and its nuclear capabilities, as well as its relations with other global forces. The implications of a potential war are of great concern, as the consequences would be evident on all international partners.
It has been argued that the only way to de-escalate the current tensions is to establish strong international partnerships and promote dialogues between Pyongyang and Washington. At the same time, it is critical to remember the impact of North Korean citizens, and ensure the safety of the population in the face of the current tensions.
The Risk of a Conflict
When considering the risk of conflict breaking out in North Korea, several aspects must be taken into account. Firstly, experts agree that the Kim regime is unlikely to escalate the situation to a point of no return. Yet, the US has not ruled out the possibility of US armed forces intervening, as it perceives the situation as a threat to its security.
Moreover, the recent actions from the US has not alleviated the tension, as it threatened to impose “the strongest possible sanctions” on the isolated nation. Such a step could potentially lead to further military confrontations, as North Korea would be forced to take drastic measures to protect itself.
Economically, a potential war in North Korea could have severe consequences on the region, as well as the world. South Korea, in particular, would be dealing with the fallout of any conflict, as the two nations have been working together on developing their economies. In the longer run, such a situation would create a cycle of poverty and stagnation, and could even lead to famine in the region.
It is also worth noting that a war in North Korea would likely attract international attention. US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, would be highly affected by an increase in military presence in the region. At the same time, China, Russia and other nearby countries could possibly be lured into the conflict and further complicate the situation.
The Role of the UN
The international community, led by the UN, is seeking ways to address the rising tensions by advising all involved parties to pursue diplomatic dialogues and resolutions. It is a tall order, as many of the involved countries are known to be intransigent in their stance regarding the subject. However, it is also worth noting that the UN Security Council has adopted a resolution calling for North Korea to stop its ballistic missile program.
What’s more, the UN has adopted several other resolutions that condemn North Korea’s nuclear tests, call for an end to its proliferation activities, and demand that the country comply with all international protocols.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has been consistent in his stance that the only way for the world to avoid conflict in North Korea is to maintain dialogue and diplomacy. He encourages all parties to reach a peaceful agreement, instead of resorting to military action.
Possible Scenarios
When it comes to potential scenarios of a war in North Korea, it is primordial to understand that none of the involved countries, including the US, have interest in such a confrontation. In fact, many believe that a diplomatic settlement would be the more adequate way to address the matter and ensure peace in the region.
Current talks between the US, North Korea, South Korea, and China have seemingly produced limited results. It is worth noting, however, that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently met with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, with the two reportedly making progress in negotiations.
Although there is no definitive answer as to what lies ahead in the volatile situation, it is safe to assume that all parties involved in the conflict have an interest in avoiding war and finding a peaceful solution. From economic sanctions to political dialogues, members of the international community are actively working towards a diplomatic solution.
The Impact on China
It follows that China, as North Korea’s principal ally and interim of their trade, has a key role to play in efforts to resolve the crisis. Beijing has been able to maintain communication and exchange between the two countries with relative success, and its rising influence in the region have made it a greater force in diplomatic efforts.
This is why the US continues to appeal to China to use its influence to pressure North Korea into easing tensions. Unfortunately, China’s policy of non-interference has been an obstacle, making it difficult to negotiate a peaceful outcome to the situation.
However, it is still possible that China could eventually play a part in brokering a resolution. With its close ties to Pyongyang, it is in a unique position to open up the channels of communication and promote a peaceful resolution.
Role of the US
In an attempt to ease tensions with North Korea, the US has made several attempts at different methods of engagement. President Trump has openly expressed his willingness to negotiate with Pyongyang, and has also imposed economic sanctions as a show of strength. He believes that deterrence through strength is necessary as a response to North Korea’s provocative acts.
Nevertheless, some experts caution that such a policy could potentially cause North Korea to react with more aggression. After all, Pyongyang’s ability to respond militarily to such threats is not to be dismissed lightly.
US allies in the region are also closely monitoring the situation, as they have an interest in avoiding a confrontation. South Korea has embraced a policy of peaceful engagement with North Korea, while Japan has also pursued diplomatic efforts with Pyongyang in the hopes of achieving a diplomatic agreement.
Ultimately, the US may be faced with a difficult decision should the situation reach a point of no return. History shows us that military action is not a viable solution and should be avoided at all cost.
The Role of Civil Society
A potential conflict in North Korea could have terrible implications on the population. Despite being isolated from the outside world, the population of the country is still subjected to inhumane conditions, including forced labor, torture, and persecution. A war could only worsen this situation further.
Citizens around the world should consider the importance of de-escalating the situation with North Korea. By advocating for peace and understanding, we can help open new channels of communication with North Korea and work towards an agreement between all the involved parties.
It is our shared responsibility to call out and condemn human rights abuses. At the same time, we must also remember the potential of peaceful engagement in ending this crisis and building a lasting peace in the region.
