Background Information
The prospect of a war between the United States and North Korea is a highly concerning one not just for citizens of both countries but for people across the world. Despite the United Nations International Court of Justice’s concluding that North Korea had used its own territory for the purpose of launching a nuclear-capable missile in 2017, tensions between the countries have yet to abate. The United States, for its part, continues to oppose North Korea’s nuclear program and the country’s authoritarian regime. With the proliferation of weapons and an unpredictable leader in North Korea, this has spurred fears of a potential conflict erupting between the two nuclear-armed powers.
Experts Perspectives
Several experts in international relations and geopolitics have spoken out on the issue, sharing their perspectives on whether or not a war between the United States and North Korea is likely to materialize. Dr. Alexey Portes, a research scientist at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, believes that while a nuclear war is highly unlikely, U.S. and North Korea skirmishes and proxy wars remain a possibility. He states: “Both countries have an incentive to stand their ground and show the world that they are powerful and determined. This has led to an increase in military maneuvering, and if that does not stop, things could escalate into a full-scale conflict.”
Meanwhile, Dr. John M. Banks, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia, suggests that military intervention from either side is unlikely given the risks of reciprocal destruction. He states: “Given the capabilities of both the United States and North Korea in terms of their arsenals, neither side will elect to initiate military action as the likelihood of mutual destruction is too great. The strategic and tactical calculations of both countries suggest that this is the case. Thus, if the two parties remain at loggerheads, the chances of war remain slim.”
Analysis and Insights
At present, it is hard to tell whether or not war between the United States and North Korea will come to pass. It is clear though, that both sides have a vested interest in ensuring that negotiation and diplomacy remain the priority and that both parties remain engaged at the diplomatic table. This is important not just to avert the possibility of war but also to ensure that the region remains stable and relatively secure.
In such a tense situation, the role of international organisations like the United Nations is also paramount. Through their efforts, the UN can help facilitate discussions and negotiations between the United States and North Korea, enabling potential solutions to be found that can address their issues and mitigate the chances of a conflict occurring.
Economic Considerations
It is worth noting that the economic situation of both the United States and North Korea are also important considerations. The United States is presently enjoying robust economic growth though a trade war with China threatens to hamper that in the coming years. As for North Korea, the country continues to be heavily embedded in international sanctions, making its internal economy fragile. This can encourage the country to search for external sources of income and power, further complicating the security situation in the region and significantly raising the chances of war.
Military Maneuvers
Meanwhile, the increasing amount of military maneuvers employed by both the United States and North Korea further complicates the matter. The United States Navy has conducted several Freedom of Navigation operations in the Korean Peninsula and East Sea, while the North Korean Navy has conducted operations of its own in the region. Each side claims these maneuvers are aimed at stopping military conflicts, though it is likely that they are being done to both show off their military capabilities and push the other side into making concessions.
International Reactions
Should the United States and North Korea go to war, this would be met with much anxiety from other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. South Korea, for instance, would be greatly impacted, though UN Security Council member states, especially China and Japan, could be tempted to get involved. This could potentially escalate the situation further, and as a result, it is necessary that states in the region work together to reduce tensions and do whatever is possible to prevent war from occurring.
Sanction Impacts
International sanctions, especially ones levied by the UN Security Council, have had a great impact on North Korea’s economy. This has led to the country’s leaders to look for alternative sources of income and power, and resort to more aggressive posturing and rhetoric. The US, for its part, is unwilling to budge, preferring a policy of “maximum pressure” in lieu of dialogue and concessions. This has further increased the chances of potentially calamitous military action being taken.
Geopolitical Perspective
When viewed from a geopolitical perspective, it is clear that the risk of a US and North Korea entangling in a conflict still exists. Both countries remain at odds with one another, and the diplomatic process has made little progress in the past few years. In light of this, it is important that the international community take action to reduce tensions and ensure that negotiations and dialogue remain the priority in the region.
Social Impacts
If the United States and North Korea were to go to war, it is obvious that the human cost would be immense. Already both countries are under economic pressure and the impact of a war would be felt beyond their borders too. It is necessary that this risk is taken into account as people in both countries and beyond may be adversely affected if war does break out.
Preventive Measures
Given the possibility of war between the United States and North Korea, multiple preventive measures must be adopted to reduce tensions and avoid further escalation. The United Nations might have to implement additional international sanctions on North Korea and engage in more aggressive diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. The United States should also consider cutting off the Pyongyang regime from the international economy and look for ways to encourage the country to make diplomatic concessions. Ultimately, collective and constructive international efforts must be made to ensure that tensions in the Korean Peninsula remain low and that war is averted at all costs.
