Background
China and North Korea have been close allies for several decades. China is a highly important trading partner and political ally for North Korea, and has often come to the country’s aid in times of need. Over the past few decades, the strategic relationship between the two countries has been guided by China’s “Three No’s” policy—no nuclear arming on the Korean Peninsula, no military tension between the two Koreas, and no US military presence in the region. However, in recent years the relationship between China and North Korea has become strained due to North Korea’s continued development of its nuclear arsenal, as well as its continued hostility towards its southern neighbour.
The question of whether China would ally itself with North Korea amidst tensions between the two countries has received a lot of attention in recent years. To understand why China might ally with North Korea, it is important to examine the history of the two nations’ relationship, as well as look at the politics and economics of the situation.
History of China-North Korea Relationship
China and North Korea have had a close relationship since the 1950s, when the two nations became close allies during the Korean War. The relationship was further strengthened in the 1970s when Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping implemented his “Three No’s” policy, which included a promise to never allow nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula, as well as promising to never engage in military tension with South Korea. Since then, China has sent aid to North Korea, militarily and economically. Moreover, during the Cold War, North Korea served as a buffer zone between China and its foe, the United States.
China’s support for North Korea is also motivated by its shared ideology of socialism. The two countries have been firmly united in their embrace of Marxist-Leninist doctrines, and both countries are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Chinese-led Eurasian political, economic, and security organization.
Politics and Economics
The Chinese government has been a staunch supporter of the North Korean regime, despite the country’s its human rights abuses, belligerent rhetoric, and defiance of UN resolutions. The Chinese government has traditionally viewed North Korea as a geopolitical buffer state—an ally that can help China protect itself from what it views as US aggression in the region.
In addition, China has long been North Korea’s largest trading partner, and is heavily invested in the country’s economy. In 2017, China accounted for 90% of North Korea’s exports, and the country relies heavily on the Chinese economy for food, energy, and other resources. This economic relationship gives the Chinese government significant leverage over North Korea.
Perspectives from Experts
Experts argue that despite recent tensions between the two nations, there are still strong incentives for China to maintain its relationship with North Korea. According to Chinese foreign policy expert Ruan Zongze, China’s primary focus when it comes to North Korea is stability. The Chinese government is strongly opposed to any military intervention in the Korean Peninsula, and would rather prefer a political or diplomatic solution to the current crisis.
Zongze also highlights the benefits of North Korea’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The organization provides a forum for the two countries to discuss and resolve any differences, and maintains an atmosphere of cooperation and trust.
Analysis and Insights
Based on the evidence, it appears that China is still invested in maintaining a close relationship with North Korea. Despite the recent tensions between the two nations, China’s continued support suggests that they are still committed to the “Three No’s” policy. This means that China is still pushing for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, and is unlikely to take any hostile measures against North Korea.
In addition, China’s heavy economic investment in North Korea gives them significant leverage over Pyongyang. By threatening to cut off vital resources and trade, the Chinese government can pressure North Korea into complying with their demands. This means that while China may not be willing to fully ally itself with North Korea in the strictest sense, it will likely continue to maintain a close relationship with the country.
Regional Reactions
Despite the close relationship between China and North Korea, there is still considerable concern in the region about how their relationship might affect the security of the region. Many countries in the region, including South Korea and Japan, are wary of Chinese influence in the region, and view Chinese support as akin to endorsing North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. The Chinese government has attempted to assuage these fears by stressing their commitment to the “Three No’s” policy, as well as their firm opposition to any military intervention in the Korean Peninsula.
At the same time, there is also concern in the region about the potential for North Korean aggression. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un has continued to make increasingly belligerent statements, and his recent antics have only heightened tensions in the region. This is a major source of concern for China, as it could potentially lead to a military conflict between North and South Korea, as well as antagonize the United States and its allies.
International Perspective
China’s relationship with North Korea also has implications for the international community. Many countries view Chinese support for the North Korean regime as tantamount to endorsing Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program and other questionable policies, and some have accused China of not doing enough to pressure Pyongyang into compliance with UN resolutions. Despite this criticism, China has argued that it is doing all it can to bring the two sides to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution.
At the same time, the United States has accused China of being lax in enforcing international sanctions against North Korea, as well as of not doing enough to pressure Pyongyang into compliance with UN resolutions. China has argued that these accusations are unfounded, and that it is fully committed to working towards a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
Economic Consequences
China’s relationship with North Korea is also having an economic impact on the region. The United States and its allies have imposed a series of sanctions on North Korea in an effort to pressure Pyongyang into compliance with UN resolutions, and these sanctions have had an effect on China’s economy as well. Chinese companies have been forced to stop trading with North Korea, and many have seen their profits and revenue decline as a result.
In addition, the instability in the region has caused investors to become wary of investing in Chinese companies, which has resulted in lower stock prices. This has had a negative effect on China’s economy, and there is a lot of uncertainty in the region as to how this situation will be resolved.
