Background Information
The relationship between China and North Korea is one of the oldest in the world with the two states being ideological allies since the 1950s. Both countries share strong diplomatic, economic and military ties, as well as a common history of past civil war and foreign invasions.
The Chinese have provided economic and military aid to North Korea since the Korean War, but it wasn’t until 2009 that they began to offer political support, when China joined the United Nations Security Council in calling for the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. At the same time, Chinese leaders have also maintained that a diplomatic solution should be sought to the situation in North Korea.
Relevant Data and Perspectives From Experts
The Chinese government has repeatedly voiced its opposition to the North Korean regime, demanding that the state abide by its international commitments and refrain from nuclear weapons proliferation.
At the same time, Beijing has been careful not to alienate North Korea and to maintain good relations with the country, despite the occasional tensions. The two countries have agreed to cooperate on a number of issues such as trade, tourism, and international security.
Katina Adams, a State Department spokesperson has said, “China and North Korea have a significant relationship, both politically and economically, and therefore it is important to consider their positions when making policy decisions on the Korean Peninsula.”
Furthermore, China has continued to act as a buffer between the US and North Korea, helping to ease the tensions between the two countries in recent years. Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have met repeatedly since Kim took power in 2011, suggesting Beijing’s political support for the regime.
Insights and Analysis
Given the close relationship of both countries, it is likely that China would back North Korea in the event of a war. China has already publicly stated its support for North Korea in the past and is likely to do so again in the future.
However, the exact nature of China’s support would depend on the nature of the conflict. If it’s a conventional war, China is likely to provide political support for North Korea and may provide military aid if requested. On the other hand, if the conflict is nuclear, China may refrain from providing any kind of military support, and instead focus on diplomatic efforts to bring about a peaceful solution to the conflict.
Economic Ramifications
A war between North Korea and any of the other great powers in the world would have far-reaching economic implications. If China is seen to be backing North Korea, other countries may impose economic sanctions against China, which could reduce trade and cause economic hardship.
Furthermore, if a war does break out, North Korea will be reliant on China for much of its supplies of food and raw materials. Any war could cripple the North Korean economy and put large amounts of strain on China’s resources as well.
Regional Impact
A war would also have major implications for the region. A conflict could lead to the displacement of large numbers of people, massive refugee flows and a destabilization of the Korean peninsula. In this regard, China is likely to support North Korea in order to avoid any regional instability that may result from a war.
At the same time, China is aware that a war between North Korea and the US could bring the US and Chinese forces into direct confrontation. This could have a destabilizing effect on the entire region and could put China at risk.
Political Consequences
A war would also have major political consequences. North Korea relies heavily on China for economic and political support, and a war could potentially weaken China’s influence in the region. Furthermore, the US has in the past called on China to take greater responsibility for reining in North Korea’s ambitions, and a war could damage China’s reputation in the international community.
International Concerns
China is well aware that a war between North Korea and any other great power could potentially draw in many other countries. Consequently, China is likely to be cautious about providing any kind of support for North Korea if a war were to break out.
China is also likely to be concerned about the humanitarian consequences of a war, and would be hesitant to back North Korea if it was seen to be at fault in causing suffering. Additionally, China may also have concerns about the international reaction to a war, and would likely seek to avoid any action that could further escalate the situation.
