China’s Relationship with North Korea
North Korea and China have a complex relationship, with tension present between the countries in recent years. China has supported North Korea economically, militarily and diplomatically since the 1950s during the Korean War. Chinese interests are balanced between maintaining the current regime in North Korea, and avoiding a collapse of the nation and a potential influx of refugees. Chinese leaders are trying to ensure that the best interests of their country are met in any discussions and decision making related to North Korea.
In order to understand their current relationship, it is important to investigate the history between the two countries over the last 60 years. After the end of the Korean War in 1953, China and North Korea developed a close relationship with the two countries providing both political and economic aid. This relationship became strained during the 1990s as both countries experienced severe economic crises. As a result, North Korea began to pursue a nuclear weapons program, which caused international concern, particularly from their neighbor, China.
China’s Interests in North Korea
China’s interests in North Korea are twofold. Firstly, China wants to ensure that North Korea does not use its nuclear weapons against them. In this respect, China’s goal is to keep North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s ambitions in check and to persuade him to abide by international regulations. The second interest is to ensure that the current regime in North Korea is maintained. This is because, should the North Korean government collapse, it could lead to a massive influx of refugees crossing into China, resulting in a disruption of China’s stability and political system.
For these reasons, China has taken on an active role in supporting the North Korean regime, primarily through the provision of economic aid and support. Additionally, China has served as an intermediary between North Korea and other countries and international bodies. This includes playing a key role in the negotiations to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
China and North Korea’s Relationship in 2019
Since 2019, the relationship between China and North Korea has become increasingly strained. In April 2019, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited China three times, in what seemed to be an attempt to restore relations between the two countries. However, despite this, the recent political changes in North Korea have caused tension between the two countries.
North Korea has attempted to increase its economic independence and self-sufficiency by looking for other sources of aid. This includes seeking out support from Russia and China’s rival, India. China’s concerns about North Korea’s nuclear program have also grown in recent years, particularly after North Korea carried out a series of missile tests in 2018. As a result, China has applied economic sanctions against North Korea, and reduced the amount of aid provided to the country.
Could China Help North Korea?
The question of whether China should help North Korea is a complex one, as it is largely dependent on the situation between the two countries at any given time. Currently, it seems unlikely that China will be able to reconcile the differences between North Korea and the international community. As a result, it is unlikely that China will be able to provide economic aid or support to North Korea in the near future
However, in the long-term, it is possible that China could take a more active role in negotiations with North Korea. This could potentially include providing economic aid, as well as discussing ways to reduce the tension between North Korea and the international community. This would ultimately depend on whether the current regime in North Korea is able to meet the demands of the international community, and if China believes that a positive outcome is achievable.
China’s Role in North Korean Negotiations
China has shown that it is willing to take an active role in negotiations with North Korea, and has already provided support in mediating talks between North Korea and other states. This includes hosting negotiations in 2018 between North Korea and the US, as well as making representations on North Korea’s behalf.
However, China’s primary concern continues to be the stability of North Korea and the preservation of the current regime. This is likely to remain the focus of China’s diplomatic efforts when dealing with North Korea, and it is unlikely that China will be willing to provide economic aid or support unless they are sure that it will benefit the Chinese government in the long-term.
China’s Economic Aid to North Korea
In the past, China has provided economic aid to North Korea in the form of fuel, food, and raw materials. This has been done in order to prevent a collapse of the North Korean economy, and to protect China from the potential influx of North Korean refugees.
Moreover, China has provided North Korea with support in the form of loans and free trade agreements, allowing North Korea to develop economic ties with China and other nations. This has enabled North Korea to increase its economic independence and gain access to resources and markets that it would otherwise not have access to.
North Korean Dependency on China
North Korea is heavily dependent on China for economic aid, and it is estimated that approximately 90% of North Korea’s imports come from China. This dependency is a source of contention between the two countries, as North Korea is unable to pay its debts and this has caused a strain on the Chinese economy. As a result, China is reluctant to provide any more financial or other forms of aid to North Korea unless North Korea is able to pay back its existing debts.
Furthermore, North Korea is highly reluctant to open up its economy and has consistently refused to accept any form of foreign aid or investments. As a result, it is unlikely that North Korea will be able to gain access to new resources or markets that could potentially improve its economic situation.
China’s Influence on North Korea’s Policy Decisions
Although China has supported North Korea for many years, it is not directly involved in North Korea’s policy decisions. North Korea remains an isolated country, and the decisions of its leaders are not determined by an external force such as China.
China has attempted to influence North Korea’s policy decisions, particularly regarding its nuclear weapons program. However, this has not been successful, and North Korea has continued to pursue its own agenda, regardless of China’s input. This suggests that China’s influence over North Korea is limited and that North Korea is motivated by its own interests and desires.
The Future of China and North Korean Relations
The future of the relationship between China and North Korea remains uncertain. The current political situation between the two countries remains volatile, and it is unlikely that China will be willing to provide any form of economic support until North Korea agrees to abide by international regulations and reduces its nuclear arsenal.
However, it is possible that, in the future, North Korea will come to rely less on China and look for alternative sources of support from other countries, such as Russia and India. This could potentially weaken China’s influence over North Korea, and reduce North Korea’s dependency on China as a source of aid.
