Military Structures
What mindset and tactical structures would North Korea possess if they entered a war? Most assume that North Korea is an outdated country with a low military budget. However, the 2018 Worldwide Threat Assessment stated that “North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continues to prioritize the consolidation of his power and sustain the Kim family’s dynastic rule”. This might explain why their military budget has seen an increase over the years. North Korea is said to have a staggering 1.2 million active military personnel, making it the 4th largest active military in the world. Their history of militarism is extensive and brutal, making them surprisingly well-equipped for opportunity if given the chance. North Korea is a force to be reckoned with, possessing artillery and missile technology, combat aircraft, tanks, submarines, and chemical and biological weapons.
However, not everyone agrees that North Korea should be taken seriously in a conflict. Dr. Toby Dalton, Co-Director and Senior Fellow of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that “any assessment of the North Korean military must take account of its age, the robustness of its armored and infantry forces, and the incredibly poor performance of its forces during the Korean War”. He insists that while North Korea may have planes, tanks, chemical and biological weapons, they are outdated, and are highly unlikely to be effective in a war.
Support of China and Russia
One of the major factors that could sway the outcome of any potential war between North Korea and other nations is their support from both China and Russia. It is well-known that North Korea has a close relationship with China, with Beijing providing them with fuel, food and military supplies. In addition, North Korea and Russia seem to be natural allies, due to their joint opposition of the US’s armed presence in parts of the Far East.
These alliances offer North Korea additional protection and resources in a war, as both China and Russia are involved in many weapons agreements, providing Pyongyang with access to advanced missile programs, new technology and equipment. This means that, unlike their Western enemies, North Korea is already armed with a powerful set of weaponry, giving them a strategic edge over their opponents.
Sanctions
Apart from the military capabilities, it is also important to keep in mind the impact of sanctions on North Korea. While in 2018, the US and North Korea engaged in a period of diplomatic negotiation and reconciliation, the result of these talks have been mostly symbolic and withering. More recently, in June 2019, Pyongyang resorted back to firing short-range missiles in a show of military strength.
The United Nations Security Council has placed heavy, wide-ranging and crippling sanctions on North Korea since 2006. These sanctions have resulted in the country’s significant decrease in revenue, leaving their military struggling for funding. This could indicate that when in battle, their arsenals would quickly deplete.
US Power
Another factor to consider is that if North Korea were to enter a war with another nation, the US could become involved. The US is a superpower and it maintains extensive military bases in the region and possesses an array of advanced weaponry and unmanned aerial drones, making them a major force. It is also worth noting that the US keeps its military strength in a constant state of update; the aircraft carriers USS Stennis and USS Nimitz are already on their way to the area, indicating a build-up of forces. This could be a potential deterrent for North Korea, knowing that if things go south, the US would likely be involved.
However, North Korea is also aware of the US’s current strained military resources and with the US continuing their wars in the Middle East, their efforts in Korea could be weakened. This could give North Korea an opportunity to take a major blow to the US forces, as they would be unable to mobilize as quickly as they have done in the past.
Public Perception
Public perception also needs to be taken into account when looking at the likelihood of North Korea entering a war. The public generally views North Korea as a rogue nation, and the Kim dynasty, whose rule has spanned 70 years, as despotic. This means that their opinion of entering a war is much different than the perception of countries like the US who have a described history of vested democracy.
Moreover, recent US President Donald Trump has been a major driving force of anti-Korean sentiment. His rhetoric of “fire and fury” towards North Korea and the DPRK, has painted the country in a negative light and has left many with a bleak outlook on their chances should they engage in a conflict.
Global Alliance
Should North Korea enter a war, the likelihood of them obtaining global support is slim. Throwing themselves into a war without considerable backing is highly improbable. Global alliance is a strenuous process, requiring various meetings and negotiations on multiple levels. Unfortunately, this is an area where North Korea lacks heavily, with most of the world maintaining limited contact with Pyongyang.
In addition, there are also many nations that have ulterior motives when involving themselves in a conflict, either looking to benefit economically or politically. This is an area that North Korea would not flourish in, as their relationships with foreign nations have been strained in the past. This could put them at a disadvantage when looking for backup.
North Korean Citizens
What about the North Korean citizens themselves? Would they fight for their nation if a war were to come about? The citizens of North Korea live under tyrannical rule, many of them unable to travel or knowing what life is truly like outside of their own borders. Many see them as devoutly loyal to the Kim dynasty and have the view that they would fight to the death if they had to.
Although there is no definite way of knowing how individuals would act, it is still important to consider the risk that North Korea and its citizens would be exposed to in the event of a war. It would be foolish to ignore the potential for citizens to become casualties of a conflict.
Endurance
From a North Korean perspective, a win in a war would depend largely on their endurance. North Korea has seen conflicts in the past, though not on the scale of most other nations. Therefore, this could be an area of concern when looking at their capability in a war. North Korea’s ability to withstand a war would be determined by many factors, such as their access to resources, their alliance with China and Russia, and their public opinion, as these all play a role in the likelihood of their success.
Whilst North Korea is able to arm themselves with all types of weapons, the weapons available are not necessarily up to the standard of their adversaries. In addition, their army is comprised largely of inexperienced, young recruits, and many of their weapons, including their aircraft and submarines, are outdated.
Therefore, in the event of a major war, the outcome could be determined by North Korea’s access to resources, their alliance with major nations, their public opinion, and their ability to withstand the conflict.
Supplies and Resources
The supplies available to North Korea will also affect their success if they enter into a war. With the sanctions imposed in 2006, it is likely that North Korea will find it difficult to acquire new supplies, meaning that their access to resources is limited. This could in turn diminish their ability to fight on the battlefield.
Additionally, the country does not have access to the same level of technology that their adversaries do. North Korea primarily use arms from China, which are often outdated and inefficient compared to Western weaponry. This could put North Korea at a disadvantage in a war, as they cannot rely on the same level of technology that their opponents can deploy.
Strategy and Preparation
The strategy that North Korea would employ in a conflict would be highly important in determining the outcome of a war. North Korea is known for their surprise attack tactics, as this gives them the tactical edge in a potential conflict. This involves provoking their opponent and then attacking from a surprise location.
North Korea also puts a lot of emphasis on their training and preparation, something that has enabled them to fight against far superior opponents in the past. This is something that they strive to continue and refine in their army, so they are well equipped to engage in a conflict, should one arise.
Furthermore, North Korea also possesses nuclear weapons, giving them the capability to inflict great damage on an enemy. This could give them the advantage in any war, as they could threaten the opposing nation with a nuclear strike, taking out much of their military capabilities before they have time to react.
Plans and Tactics
The plans and tactics North Korea would implement in a war would be integral to their success. North Korea has proven to be an unpredictable nation in the past, meaning that their rivals can never be sure about their next move.
The North Korean military favors a strategy of deception, meaning that they could change their plans as the war progresses. This would allow them to unpredictably counter their opponents, and potentially win through surprise tactics. This means that North Korea has the ability to keep their enemy guessing about their next move, removing the element of predictability.
Another factor that could favor North Korea is their location. North Korea is surrounded by China and Russia, giving it some protection against major onslaughts. It is highly unlikely that their enemies would march into their territory, due to the risks involved. This could give North Korea time to prepare, while their enemies cautiously plan their next move.
Attitudes and Mindsets
The attitudes of individuals and their respective mindsets will also have an effect on the outcome of any potential war. North Korea’s mindset is one of strength, with their soldiers believing that they are superior to their enemies and that victory is achievable. This gives the soldiers the courage and determination to fight for their country and to serve the will of their leader.
In addition, North Korea has demonstrated an unyielding approach with their enemies, often refusing to back down despite the risks posed. Having an attitude that is unafraid of failure can prove beneficial in a war, as North Korea may not be discouraged by their opponents’ superior capabilities. This could be a major factor for them in any conflict.
However, it is also important to remember that North Korea’s soldiers, particularly their young recruits, may not be experienced enough to win a war. This could put them at a major disadvantage when facing troops that are battle-hardened and trained, as their inexperience could cause them to make strategic mistakes and cost them the conflict.
