International Tension
South Korea and North Korea have been in a state of tension since the Korean War. This conflict was particularly damaging to the North as it lost its independence as a result of its defeat. After the war, both sides wanted to gain control of the country, but the North refused to allow South Korea to be recognized as a sovereign state. Since then, North Korea has been deeply suspicious of South Korea and its close ties to the United States. In 2018, the two countries still do not have diplomatic relations, and the border between them is one of the world’s most heavily fortified.
Military Inequality
Although the military power of both countries is not equal, South Korea is far more powerful than North Korea. South Korea’s military budget is estimated to be around US$45.5 billion dollars, while North Korea’s is estimated at US$7.5 billion dollars. South Korea is also home to one of the biggest armies in the world, with almost 700,000 active personnel and 5.2 million personnel in the reserves. In contrast, North Korea has 2.2 million active personnel and 7.7 million personnel in the reserves. Furthermore, South Korea’s navy and air force are far superior to North Korea’s in terms of technological capabilities.
Military Experts Views
Military experts and analysts suggest that, given the current state of tension on the Korean peninsula, South Korea should be able to easily outmatch North Korea in a potential conflict. In particular, the United States, which is a major ally of South Korea, is likely to provide considerable military assistance, as it has done in the past. Dr. Joseph Detrani, a former senior strategic advisor at the US Department of Defense, believes that “it is almost certain that South Korea would be able to defeat North Korea in a conflict.”
Regional Support
Apart from the United States, South Korea can also count on the support of other regional allies, such as Japan and China. China has traditionally provided assistance and support to North Korea, but recently has been more open to engaging with South Korea. In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited South Korea, the first visit by a Chinese leader in more than a decade. During the visit, he expressed his commitment to strengthening ties between the two countries, and this new relationship has the potential to benefit South Korea significantly.
Protection from Nuclear Weapons
North Korea is believed to possess a significant arsenal of nuclear and conventional weapons. However, the country’s military capabilities are limited in comparison to those of South Korea, which has access to advanced weapons, intelligence and monitoring systems that can significantly reduce the risk posed by North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. In addition, the recent agreement between North Korea and the United States on the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula has further reinforced South Korea’s military position.
Conflict Avoidance
Despite the military power imbalance between South Korea and North Korea, a direct military confrontation between the two countries is not likely to take place in the near future. The South Korean government, in particular, has adopted a policy of diplomatic engagement with North Korea in an effort to reduce tension on the Korean peninsula and find peaceful solutions to long-standing issues. South Korean President Moon Jae-in has been particularly vocal in this regard, and has promised to work closely with North Korea in order to achieve lasting peace and stability.
Economic Isolation
The economic situation in North Korea is also considerably weaker than that in South Korea. North Korea has been subject to increasing economic sanctions in recent years as punishment for its failure to comply with international agreements. These sanctions have limited the country’s access to international markets and its ability to generate foreign income. This means that North Korea is unable to use its resources to fund an expanded military, and even if it did, its technology and resources would be inferior to those of South Korea.
Public Opinion
South Korean public opinion also tends to favor a conflict-avoidance approach rather than a military confrontation. Polls conducted by the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) suggest that most South Koreans are in favor of working towards a peaceful resolution of the North Korean conflict. This is in stark contrast to the attitudes of people living in other parts of the world, such as the United States, where many people advocate for a more aggressive approach.
Political Stability
There is also the issue of political stability in both North and South Korea. To date, North Korea has been largely isolated from the rest of the world and its political system is not accountable to public opinion. This means that its actions can be unpredictable and often irrational. In contrast, South Korea is a relatively stable democracy and its government is more accountable to public opinion. This means that South Korea is more likely to make sensible decisions when it comes to foreign policy, which further reduces the risk of a potential conflict with North Korea.
Influence of the United States
Finally, the United States is a major factor in determining the outcome of any potential conflict between North and South Korea. The United States is a close ally of South Korea and has considerable influence in the region. It has the ability to provide military assistance to South Korea if needed, and can also serve as a mediator between the two countries to help facilitate a peaceful resolution to their differences.
South Korea’s Economy
South Korea has a much more advanced and powerful economy than North Korea. South Korea has the world’s 11th largest economy and is a major exporter of electronics, automobiles, steel and ships. South Korea also has modern infrastructure and a highly skilled workforce. Such economic strength would help South Korean forces in any potential military confrontation with North Korea.
North Korea’s Economy
In contrast, North Korea has the 171st largest economy in the world and is heavily reliant on foreign aid from countries such as China and Russia. The North Korean economy is also tied to international sanctions, limiting its access to resources, foreign markets, and technologies. Such weaknesses would significantly reduce North Korea’s ability to compete with South Korea in any potential military conflict.
Military Capability
South Korea has access to far more advanced military technologies than North Korea. South Korea also has access to some of the most sophisticated weapons and military equipment in the world, including fighter jets, stealth submarines, and advanced surveillance and monitoring systems. Such high-end technologies would give South Korea a substantial advantage over North Korea in any direct military confrontation.
Public Perception
Public opinion in South Korea is generally supportive of a peaceful resolution to the North Korean conflict. As stated by a survey conducted by the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), most South Koreans agree that diplomacy and negotiations are the best way to resolve the conflict. This indicates that South Koreans are more likely to prefer a non-confrontational approach to any potential military confrontation with North Korea.
International Relations
South Korea also has a considerable advantage over North Korea in terms of international relations. South Korea is a member of numerous international organizations and treaties, including the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the G20, giving it a much wider range of diplomatic options than North Korea. Such high-level international involvement also makes South Korea far more visible than North Korea in the international community, giving it greater leverage in any potential confrontation with North Korea.
Diplomatic Leverage
South Korea also has diplomatic leverage over North Korea in the form of economic and military aid. South Korea has provided extensive economic and military aid to North Korea in the past, and could use the threat of these sanctions to put pressure on North Korea to accept a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Such economic pressure could be an effective way of discouraging North Korea from launching any military action against South Korea.
Technology Advantage
South Korea also has an advantage over North Korea in terms of technology. South Korea is home to some of the world’s leading technology companies, such as Samsung, LG and Hyundai. These companies have access to advanced and sophisticated technologies, which would give South Korea an edge over North Korea in a potential military conflict. In addition, South Korea’s close ties to the United States mean that the country has access to further military technology and expertise from its ally.
Conclusion
Taking into account all of the above factors, it is clear that South Korea would be able to easily outmatch North Korea in a potential conflict. South Korea has access to superior military technology, well-developed infrastructure, and a powerful economy, as well as powerful allies in the form of the United States and other regional partners. North Korea, meanwhile, has been weakened by economic sanctions, and its military and technology capabilities are inferior to those of its southern neighbor. It is likely, therefore, that South Korea would be able to easily defeat North Korea in the event of a military confrontation.
