For decades now, North Korea has been the source of much tension and anxiety for the international community. Sixty-five years after the end of the Korean War, relations between North and South Korea remain strained. But the potential of military action has been a constant worry – and in recent years, that worry has was shifted East towards Japan. Could North Korea actually be considering attacking Japan?
One suggestion is that attack North Korea is planning an attack on Japanese air and naval bases. In January 2017, reportedly, US intelligence sources spotted several North Korean guided missiles heading towards the coast of Japan. This raised alarm bells across the globe – and reasserted fears that Japan may be the next target for a North Korean assault.
The implications for Japan, and for the wider world if Japan were to be the subject of a North Korean attack, are huge. Toshimitsu Motegi, the Japanese Foreign Minister, warned that an attack against his country would be “unacceptable”. For its part, Japan has sought to develop a more proactive defence system, to ensure that its citizens are protected from any action North Korea might deem to take.
Meanwhile, experts have suggested that a North Korean attack against Japan is not very probable – given the current state of the North Korean military and its resources. “The North Korean military is no match for Japan’s modern, advanced forces”, said Professor Aspen, a military analyst. Despite the increasingly bellicose rhetoric coming from North Korea, it would be unlikely that an attack would take place.
Another possible explanation is that the “missiles” spotted in 2017 were actually commercial satellites. Pyongyang has made great strides in technology of late, and has successfully launched several satellites into space. For Professor Robert Dujarric of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies, it’s likely that the perceived threat was actually a commercial exercise.
The Effect On Relations between South Korea and Japan
Even if the prospects of an attack on Japan may be somewhat unlikely, seriously tensions between Japan and North Korea are having a ripple effect on other surrounding nations. Good relations between South Korea and Japan are essential, particularly in terms of security issues. But the source of the tension elsewhere is creating a climate of uncertainty between the two nations.
As the South Korean and Japanese foreign ministers recently attended a trilateral meeting in Tokyo, hopes are high that the two countries could agree on certain measures to ease tensions. However, an ever-present shadow of war looms over any potential agreement, thanks to North Korea’s continued refusal to back down.
Some analysts have suggested that the North Korean leadership is deliberately trying to create a hostile climate, in order to better assert its own power and leverage. Pyongyang has been the master of divide-and-rule tactics, and has often sought to force South Korea and Japan apart. For Professor Rahul Nayaka, a South Korea expert, this is a tactic that is often used by North Korea.
The US and China Role
The US and China have been playing increasingly important roles in ascertaining how the North Korea situation is managed. The US, for its part, has refused to back down on its confrontational stance against North Korea, with Donald Trump warning of “fire and fury” if any attack was to be launched against Japan. Speaking to journalists, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was clear about his country’s readiness to act in case of an attack.
At the same time, China has been hailed as something of a savior, particularly as North Korea’s only real ally. As global calls have gone up for a change in the North Korean stance, China has maintained its position and refused to back down. Some experts have suggested that this is because China enjoys a certain sway over its smaller neighbor.
Naturally, China’s role in this situation is far from simple. As well as trying to maintain its influence over North Korea, it also has to pacify international concerns. With the US bringing in a raft of strict sanctions against North Korea, China has to walk a tightrope to try and appease both sides of the debate.
Public Perception
The public response has been varied, but with a definite tilt towards wanting clarity and peace. With the inevitable hype and speculation, the normal person on the street often feels powerless in the face of what’s happening.
In some countries, the idea that North Korea might launch an attack brings old fears to the surface. For Japan especially, its World War II legacy still resonates with its citizens. Many are keen to avoid a situation where any kind of action is taken against North Korea.
At the same time, the focus has been taken away from the hunger and poverty in North Korea. News articles and social media often focus on nuclear weapons, rather than the grim state of healthcare and education in the nation. As such, many people forget that North Korea is a nation of citizens who deserve as much dignity as any other.
Regional Reactions
In the region itself, governments have attempted to respond to the situation in measured tones. The focus has been to try and find a peaceful solution, rather than let North Korea provoke a larger conflict. In some cases, countries have attempted to open up lines of dialogue with Pyongyang, weighing up the merits of dialogue over that of war.
Australia has been particularly vocal in its calls for peace. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott made a measured plea for North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program, while assuring citizens that the country is ready to offer any help it can in order to achieve peace.
Elsewhere, Japan has taken steps to ensure that its citizens are safe. As mentioned previously, the government has rolled out a range of defense measures, including greater investment in technology and security. From drone-detectors to new radars, Japan has made it clear that it is ready for any eventualities.
Political and Cultural Analysis
At its core, the issue is more than just a question of military strategy and hardware. Questions of culture and politics also come into play. North Korea’s attitude is rooted in its own culture and heritage, and analysts suggest that Pyongyang is keen to go down the path of total independence.
The country has long sought recognition as an independent agent, free of the influence of either South Korea or Japan. To North Korea, this means maintaining a strong, isolated stance, propped up with the support of powerful military tools. In this sense, North Korea’s position is a multi-faceted one, with a unifying thread being its desire to assert itself.
Events of recent years have also colored the North Korea-Japan relationship. Japan’s heavy-handedness and authoritarianism during its colonial occupation of the Korean peninsula is still fresh in the minds of many, and this continues to be a source of tension that is regularly stirred up.
International Repercussions
Any attack from North Korea would naturally have implications for other players. The US, for one, may want to consider the consequences for its allies in the area. South Korea in particular receives considerable US aid, so any action taken against Japan could cause a great deal of diplomatic upheaval.
At the same time, the effects would ripple outwards across the globe. It’s very possible that North Korea is willing to take a calculated risk in the hopes of asserting its own power. In this case, the impact would be felt well beyond East Asia, as military analysts seek to assess the potential of any conflict.
The international community has traditionally responded to North Korea with a degree of caution. This has been the case 10 years ago, as well as today. But these responses, while helpful in some respects, often mean that citizens have to live in fear and uncertainty, unable to be certain of their own security and safety.
Is Dialogue the Answer?
For some, the only explanation lies in open dialogue. It’s clear that North Korea is not likely to back down to threats and aggression – instead, it often responds in kind. If it is to be avoided, then perhaps dialogue is the only answer.
Negotiations between North Korea and other powers carry risk, particularly in cases where there is a strong element of distrust. But if progress is to be made, then dialogue should be the starting point. South Korea and Japan have reopened talks, and this is an encouraging sign.
At the same time, Kim Jong-un’s “charm offensive” of late should not lull the world into a false sense of security. North Korea remains a dangerous nation, willing to take military steps if it feels they are necessary. We can but hope that Tokyo, Seoul and Pyongyang reach some kind of understanding, in order to bring peace and stability to the region.
